I’ve found a number of websites which purport to predict what will happen in 2009; for instance here, here and here. All of this looks to me like fairly non-specific commonsense readings of how the prevailing circumstances may develop, which anyone can do.

On that basis, and based partly on these predictions but mainly on my own hunches, here is my reading of what might happen in 2009.

1. There will be an assassination attempt (possibly more than one) on Barack Obama after his inauguration as US President. There is an evens chance it will succeed.
2. The Euro will continue to weaken against the dollar; in consequence both France and Germany may threaten to leave the Euro system. Conversely, due to its weak economy, the UK may try again to join the Euro in the mistaken belief it will make things better; it won’t. If this succeeds it will spell a further major downturn in the UK as businesses attempt to use the conversion as a means of increasing their margins at the expense of the customer.
3. If Gordon Brown makes another major miscalculation (either in terms of policy or the public’s mood) he will be forced out of office resulting in an early General Election. The result will be a hung parliament with a minority Labour government, which because it is unable to get legislation through will end up deepening the economic woes of the UK. However if Gordon Brown escapes further miscalculations the General Election will be between March and May 2010, with the Labour government being returned to office.
4. Russia will swing back towards Communism and the corruption that goes with it. This leads to a worsening of relations between the US and Russia, with interesting knock-on effects on the US space programme (NASA could abandon manned space exploration).
5. There will be a major pollution event which threatens thousands of lives somewhere in the world during the year, possibly in France, Spain or India.
6. There is also likely to be a major dam rupture killing thousands. This will probably be in the Far East (China is most likely). The appropriate government will be accused of not doing enough, quickly enough, to help but in practice it doesn’t care about losing a few thousand of its people. The dam will not be repaired due to the geology and the high cost.
7. Having had years of drought there will be heavy rains and major flooding across large areas of Australia.
8. Britain sees a number of its top companies fail; the holiday, aviation, automotive and construction sectors are most at risk. Of the airlines Alitalia, Ryanair and bmi look vulnerable, as do BA and airport operator BAA.
9. There will be at least two further failures (or at the least major restructurings) amongst the major High Street retailers; choose from Dixons, Morrisons, Halfords, Primark, Iceland, B&Q, Boots, Superdrug, T.K.Maxx. At least two of the top 10 UK supermarket chains will fail and/or merge.
10. At least one UK High Street bank will also fail. It will not be rescued by the UK government, who will also not allow it to be absorbed by any of the big four banks.
11. Work will start on the third runway at Heathrow; however it will be abandoned after little more than 2 years (and with upwards of £5bn wasted) due to a major downturn in the aviation sector worldwide.
12. 2009 will also see the start of serious international lobbying to move the 2012 Olympics away from London in favour of an existing, cheaper, venue – all due to the worldwide economic downturn. A final decision will not be made until late in 2010 or early 2011; it could go either way.
13. A well known celebrity (possibly Victoria Beckham) will become pregnant with a long awaited daughter, but she will have a life-threatening miscarriage.
14. On a global note, Pakistan and Iran will continue to be a threat to world peace with both being driven further into the arms of Islamic extremists.
15. The global economy will continue to have a very bumpy ride in 2009 with a level of stability returning sometime after mid-2010. However this stability will be at a lower level than heretofore as there is a growing global realisation amongst the people that our previous greed has generated the current cycle of gloom. Governments and business leaders will however not see this and will continue to try to ramp economies back to their pre-2008 levels; they will fail.
16. There is no indication of any truly major earthquake or volcanic event in 2009; the catastrophically big events are still 2-3 years away. That is not to say there won’t be earthquake events, just that they will not be the cataclysmic ones we are all awaiting.

So there you have it – a mixture of my reading of the current environment and some wishful thinking dressed up as a set of predictions. See anyone can do this based on absolutely nothing and it looks authoritative. I hope I have this all wrong (there is no reason it should be right; I have no known special psychic powers) as it is so gloomy. But I shall claim a triumph if I score anything over a 30% hit rate.