Category Archives: personal

Ten Things

This month, as it is the beginning of the year, by tradition Ten Things is my wish list of what I’d like to accomplish during the year. These are not necessarily the highest priority things I want to accomplish, nor are they necessarily in any particular order. Some are (relatively) easy; others are going to take quite a bit of work. And they’re not all SMART, so they aren’t true objectives but more “wish list” items.
Ten Things I’m Trying to do in 2018:

  1. Handover AP Soc Hon. Sec. role
  2. AP Oxford conference
  3. Work to improve knees and back
  4. Reduce waste/rubbish/clutter and recycle more
  5. Have a 2 week holiday
  6. Do something not done before
  7. Go somewhere not been before
  8. Visit the Horniman Museum
  9. Walk across London’s Millennium Bridge
  10. Prove my family history back to Tudor time

Notice that these are things I’m trying to do; they aren’t absolutes which must be achieved. So while I will be disappointed not to achieve any of them it will not be a matter for sacking the manager.
You’ll also notice some are things which were on last year’s list; some of that is deliberate but some reflects just how badly I did in 2017, and indeed 2016. Let’s see if we can do better in 2018!
I’ll report back this time next year, DV.

Predictions for 2017 — How Did I Do?

This time last year I made a series of predictions about what would happen during 2017. So what did I get right, and what wrong?


UK

  1. Brexit. The Supreme Court overturns the High Court judgement that Royal Prerogative cannot be used to trigger Article 50. WRONG; the decision was upheld by a majority verdict.
  2. Brexit. Article 50 will be triggered in the last week of March by government without the agreement of parliament. WRONG in that Parliament agreed by passing legislation authorising the PM to trigger Article 50, although without any explicit agreement to leave the EU. CORRECT in that Article 50 was triggered in the last week of March.
  3. Brexit. It becomes apparent that no deal is possible with the EU and that the notification under Article 50 cannot be withdrawn. WRONG as this is not yet apparent to the government.
  4. As a consequence, Theresa May resigns and asks Parliament to grant a General Election. WRONG in that Theresa May didn’t resign. CORRECT that there would be a General Election.
  5. Boris Johnson is sacked as Foreign Secretary and relegated to the back benches. WRONG
  6. The new Foreign Secretary is one of David Davies, Liam Fox, Michael Gove. WRONG as it didn’t arise
  7. Inflation will hit 2.5% by year-end. CORRECT: in March inflation was 2.3%; by November it was 3.1%.
  8. The Bank of England Base Rate will be reduced to 0%. WRONG; BoE base rate was raised to 0.5%.
  9. The Pound falls by 20% (cf. 1 January) against the US Dollar and the Euro. WRONG; pound was down 4% against the Euro and up 9.5% against the US dollar.
  10. FT100 falls by at least 10% compared with the start of the year. WRONG FT100 was up 7.6% on the year.
  11. Unemployment rises by 10% compared with December 2016. WRONG unemployment was down from 4.8% to 4.3%.
  12. GDP falls by at least 2% year-on-year; the UK is in recession by the end of the year. WRONG; GDP was up 1.7% as measured 3Q2016 to 3Q2017 (latest data available).
  13. The Government will introduce legislation to implement Nordic model of prostitution. WRONG
  14. The Government also implements alcohol minimum pricing. WRONG; although CORRECT in Scotland.
  15. There is at least one major incident (plane crash, train crash, terrorist attack, industrial accident etc.) with over 50 fatalities. CORRECT; the Grenfell Tower fire claimed 71 lives. Add to that two terror attacks in London and one in Manchester with a total of 35 deaths.
  16. At least one high street name goes out of business with over 500 job losses. CORRECT. Monarch airline collapsed with 1858 jobs lost. Also Jaeger collapsed with 700 jobs threatened as did Multiyork with 550 jobs threatened.
  17. At least 2 major hospitals are forced to close due to finance problems, with loss of jobs and healthcare; there is no allowance for anyone to pick up the slack. WRONG
  18. Two horses die in the Grand National, which is then permanently scrapped. WRONG; all the horses survived the race.
  19. There’s significant flooding somewhere in the UK in March, May and October. WRONG about March and May; CORRECT as there was major flooding in Cumbria in October.
  20. A meteor strike destroys two houses, but there are no fatalities. WRONG
  21. There is finally proof that there are non-native big cats living wild in the UK; there are enough to maintain a small breeding population. WRONG
  22. The Queen dies unexpectedly followed within 3 months by Prince Philip. WRONG
  23. Prince Charles ducks becoming King thus allowing William to take to the throne. WRONG because it didn’t arise.
  24. Other Deaths: Paul McCartney, Bruce Forsythe, Bob Geldof, Michael Parkinson. CORRECT about Bruce Forsyth. WRONG about the others.

World

  1. Donald Trump is inaugurated as US President amid strident protests, possible rioting and several fatalities. CORRECT, although I don’t recall any fatalities.
  2. During the year there are moves to impeach Trump which may succeed. CORRECT although they have come to nothing.
  3. Obama care is scrapped. CORRECT
  4. NASA’s budget is halved. WRONG
  5. An accident (maybe a debris strike?) destroys the ISS with loss of the crew. WRONG
  6. Consequent on the above NASA abandons manned space flight for the foreseeable future. WRONG as it didn’t arise.
  7. Trump visits Russia; Putin visits the US. WRONG, surprisingly.
  8. US imposes severe restrictions on immigration. CORRECT although the courts seem to be unsure about whether the bans are legal or not.
  9. Against all the odds the USA abolishes the death penalty. WRONG
  10. Major banking collapse somewhere in the developed world, possibly Italy, USA or UK. CORRECT; the Italian government had to bail out two banks to the tune of €17bn.
  11. Major cyber attack brings down power/utility infrastructure affecting hundreds of thousands, probably in USA but maybe Western Europe. CORRECT; the WannaCry attack in May affected over 200k systems worldwide including a significant chunk of the UK NHS.
  12. Marine Le Pen is elected French President precipitating an existential crisis in the EU. WRONG; Le Pen lost the run-off to Emmanuel Macron.
  13. Turmoil in South Africa after the arrest of a top politician. WRONG; not noticeably although it seems to have been a close run thing with President Zuma.
  14. President Mugabe of Zimbabwe dies. WRONG; although he was forced from office in November only to be replaced by one of his acolytes.
  15. Consequently the regime in Zimbabwe becomes even more repressive, in an attempt to prevent a civil war; this triggers a mass exodus of blacks to neighbouring countries. WRONG as it didn’t arise.
  16. At least one major earthquake (magnitude 7.5+) with over 200 fatalities in Asia and another in South America. MAYBE: two quakes in Mexico (magnitude 8.1 and 7.1) with 360+ deaths; a 7.9 quake in Papua New Guinea with few deaths; a 7.3 quake in Iran/Iraq with over 400 deaths.
  17. Scientists in Tasmania discover a small breeding population of Thylacine. WRONG; although there were reports of possible sightings in Queensland.
  18. At least two major civilian plane crashes each with over 100 fatalities. WRONG
  19. There is a significant downturn in air travel which causes at least one major carrier to fail. CORRECT; the economic/trading environment was a major contributor to the failure of Monarch Airlines.
  20. At least one conspiracy theory of 2012-16 turns out to be true. WRONG, as far as I am aware.
  21. There’s a major epidemic of a new infectious disease across a whole continent (or more). WRONG, again as far as I am aware.
  22. IBM is bought by/merged with another large US corporation (possible contenders: Microsoft, Apple, Google). WRONG
  23. Other deaths: Rupert Murdoch, the Dalai Lama, Jimmy Carter, George HW Bush. WRONG on all those.

Personal
These predictions were previously redacted.

  1. Knee Surgery 1. Operation on right knee successful although recovery takes >3 months. CORRECT; surgery was very successful although recovery was nothing over 3 months.
  2. Knee Surgery 2. Left knee replacement not before November and probably in 2018. WRONG; operation was done in September and again successful and good recovery.
  3. Pension. IBM reduces all pensions by 10%. WRONG
  4. Deaths amongst Family & Friends. Joan Wayman (before end-January); Cyril; Jessie; Stan Owen. CORRECT about Stan who died in April. CORRECT that Joan died, although on Boxing Day and not in January. WRONG about Cyril and Jessie.
  5. Anthony Powell Society. I am replaced as Secretary as the Society Trustees decide on a new direction/strategy. MAYBE: I wasn’t directly replaced but announced (voluntarily) that I am standing-down at the 2018 AGM so as not to impede the refocussing of the Society.

Well that’s not a very impressive year! Definintely could do better.
I’ll be posting my predictions for 2018 in the next few days, so if you have any good predictions please do share them.

My 2017 in Summary

As for the last few years here’s a summary of my achievements and engagement (or, more accurately the lack of it) during 2017.
Yet again it has been a strange year with significant depression all year round (not just in the winter) and in effect two knee replacement operations (OK the first was in the last few days of 2016, but recovery wasn’t!). Despite that I have somehow managed to function most of the time and have been insanely busy, although I will be cutting back commitments during 2018. All in all I don’t feel I’ve achieved anything and haven’t even managed to get anything off the bucket list! So here’s the summary …


At the beginning of the year I posted 10 Things I’m Trying to Do in 2017. The results are in and, yet again, it’s fair to say I lost badly.
1. Keep breathing – WIN
2. Do something not done before – WIN; attended a book launch
3. Go somewhere not been before – WIN;Islip & Brightwell Baldwin, Oxfordshire; Tutbury & Sudbury Hall, Staffordshire/Derbyshire; Stondon Massey, Essex
4. Be drawn/painted/photographed nude (again) – LOSE
5. Walk across Millennium Bridge – LOSE
6. Complete AP London Photography project – LOSE
7. Do more photography – LOSE
8. Monthly Day Out – LOSE; we managed two
9. Visit Horniman Museum – LOSE
10. Significant family history progress – WIN; in that I reconnected with my family in Canada as they told me about my Aunt’s and my cousin’s deaths
That’s a pathetic 4/10. 2018 really can’t get any worse!


Looking at the year through the usual 25 questions doesn’t look any better.
1. What did you do that you’d never done before?
a. Had my photo in the Guardian magazine for 27 May (it was the image from Laura Dodsworth’s Manhood).
b. Attended the book launch of Manhood.
2. Did you keep your new year’s resolutions, and will you make more for next year?
No because I didn’t make any, and I never will.
3. What would you like to have in 2018 that you lacked in 2017?
a. A big lottery win.
b. Free time.
4. What dates from 2017 will remain etched upon your memory?
13 September – left knee replacement.
5. Did you suffer illness or injury?
Only the left knee replacement – and recovery from the right kneee op as well.
6. What was the best thing you bought?
a. Knee replacement.
b. Hilary Spurling’s biography of Anthony Powell.
7. Where did most of your money go?
Other than an exorbitant amount of tax, fuck alone knows.
8. What did you get really, really excited about?
Nothing; I don’t do excitement, just like I don’t do panic and crisis.
9. Compared to this time last year, are you:
a. happier or sadder? – sadder, because the depression is worse.
b. thinner or fatter? – a couple of kilos heavier (it’s called Christmas!).
c. richer or poorer? – about the same.
10. What do you wish you’d done more of?
Sleep.
Sitting in the garden.
Being generally active.
11. What do you wish you’d done less of?
a. Sleep.
b. Depression.
12. What was your biggest achievement of the year?
Continuing to breathe.
Knee replacements.
13. What was your biggest failure?
Depression.
14. How many one-night stands?
None – where would I find the energy and enthusiasm?
15. What was your favourite TV program?
Yet again, I’ve watched hardly any TV programmes from end to end all year, mainly because it is all such garbage. But the best of the few? Probably the RI Christmas Lectures.
16. What was the best book you read?
Hilary Spurling’s biography of Anthony Powell.
Laura Dodsworth’s Manhood.
(I must get round to writing reviews of them!)
17. What did you want and get?
a. Hilary Spurling’s Anthony Powell.
b. A second new knee.
18. What did you want and not get?
a. A big lottery win.
b. Cancellation of Brexit.
c. The lack of depression.
19. What one thing would have made your year immeasurably more satisfying?
a. Universal acceptance of nudity and sexuality rather than stigmatisation.
b. Everyone being treated properly, as a person, with gender, ethnicity etc. being totally unimportant.
c. Not having depression.
20. How would you describe your personal fashion concept in 2017?
As little as possible as much as possible.
21. What kept you sane?
Nothing – it’s a lost cause.
22. Who did you miss?
My mother.
23. Tell us a valuable life lesson you learned in 2017:
a. All men are guilty.
b. Biological gender is irrelevant to worth and ability. [Well I knew that, but this seemed a good way to encapsulate the concept in a soundbite.]
24. A quote or song lyric that sums up your year:
“Statistics … suggest it is truly dismal these days to have a Y chromosome.”
[Mark Rice-Oxley; Guardian; 21 November 2017]
25. Your hopes for 2018
a. Sanity all round.
b. A government with the courage to cancel Brexit.


Yet again the overall result is REQUIRES IMPROVEMENT; kicking the depression would seem to be one of the keys!
Will the manager last another season, one asks? Or does he still have the full confidence of the board?
Anyway, enough of my misery. How was your 2017? And what are your hopes for 2018?

Winter Lights

In a few days, on Twelfth Night, our Christmas decorations will be coming down. Anything which gets forgotten has to stay up until next year as it is believed to be unlucky to remove Christmas decorations after Twelfth Night.
But there’s an exception. Our lights. Which are Winter Lights, rather than Christmas Lights.
How come?


Almost all major religions have a winter light festival, mostly around the Winter Solstice (in the Northern Hemisphere) to celebrate the turn of the year and to provide light and hope in the darkness of winter.

  • In Hinduism the most important light celebration is Diwali – the victory of light over darkness – which is slightly earlier than the solstice as it normally occurs around early November. Jainism also keeps Diwali.
  • Buddhism, at least in Burma, has Tazaungmon which mostly falls in November-December.
  • Chinese New Year seems to fit I here, as it too is a light festival celebrated on the first new moon between 20 January and 21 February.
  • Islam, at least as practised in Iran, has both Jashne Sade, a mid-winter feast to honour fire and to defeat the forces of darkness, frost and cold, and Shabe Chelle, the turning point, the end of the longest night of the year and the beginning of growing of the days.
  • Judaism, of course, has Hanukkah.
  • The Roman feast of Saturnalia, with its reputation for debauchery, lasted a week and also fell around the Winter Solstice.
  • Paganism, in its various forms – either ancient Paganism or its more modern incarnation as Wicca – celebrate the Winter Solstice as Yule.
  • And of course Christianity has Christmas, which it cobbled together from Pagan Yule and Roman Saturnalia with Christian iconography as pargeting.
  • And let’s not forget St Lucia’s Day on 13 December, a light festival widely celebrated across Scandinavia and some other countries.

I’m sure there are more, but you get the point.
There are many different traditions embedded in these festivals. In fact so many that years ago we decided to create our own. Hence our Winter Lights. So when the Christmas decorations – tree, holly, cards, crib figures and so on – come down the lights remain, just as they preceded the Christmas decorations.
In fact the tradition we created was to put lights in our main windows. They go up on the Feast of Christ the King, which is the Sunday before Advent (so in late November) and stay up until Candlemas on 2 February.
Why? Well, why not? Lights cheer the place up! They add some fun, interest and maybe even some mystery. They give light to scare away the dark during the gloomiest two months of the year. And while the lights don’t banish SAD they do shine a little happiness, and let’s be honest we could all do with that at this time of year.
Yes, OK, before anyone says it, the lights do take a certain amount of energy to run. But if, like us, you standardise on LEDs then the cost and environmental impact is negligible. As an example, the set of lights plugged in by my desk are rated to use 3.6 watts of electricity; over 70 days that’s 6KwHr at a cost of about £1. So you could run four sets for the cost of a couple of coffees, or (in London) the cost of a pint of decent beer. Even my environmentally conscious brain isn’t going to worry too hard about that; maybe I’ll just drink one fewer mug of tea a week.
So if you would like to help cheer the place up, and you have lights that you could like to leave up for a while, why not join our tradition. Together we might even be able to make it into something big.

Happy New Year

I name this Year, 2018


God bless her

and all that sail in her

The colour of the message above is Pantone 18-3838 Ultra Violet
“a provocative and thoughtful purple shade” which is the designated colour for 2018.

Thoughts on Family History

In doing my family history I, like most, keep my records in a piece of software designed for the purpose. In my case this is Family Tree Maker (FTM), which (is no longer owned by but) syncs with Ancestry [https://www.ancestry.com]. I looked quite hard at the options many years ago and found that FTM was the most useable of the many family tree applications available.
And then a couple of years ago, when Ancestry announced they were ceasing support and development of FTM, and before it was acquired by Mackiev, I looked again at the market and still found nothing I thought came up to FTM for either functionality or usability. So like many others I was very happy when Mackiev took on FTM and have worked with Ancestry to maintain the FTM-Ancestry integration.
What all family tree software allows you to do is plot not just your direct line, but also the branches by adding the laterals (siblings etc.) for each person. I know many don’t bother with this but concentrate only of their father’s father’s father’s … line, or at least their direct lines. To me this is not a good approach for two reasons.
First of all, adding in all those laterals (siblings, uncles, aunts, cousins, half- and step-siblings, and more, going ever backwards) provides more information. And hunting around them can often provide key evidence to verify (or at least suggest) one’s actual ancestral line. Nefarious family members are often witnesses at marriages, the person registering a death, or shown on a census as sharing a house.
Secondly, this provides a huge amount of rich interest, and often the odd skeleton in the wardrobe. Ah, so great-grandmother was actually a tailor with her own business and not just any old seamstress. GGGG-uncle Bulgaria did serve at Waterloo, as Grandma always said. And no-one in the family knew great-grandfather had a bastard child after he left great-grandmother in 1910, and in the process he told fibs to either the registrar of births or the 1911 census. [This latter actually happened in my family: my mother had a half-aunt who she was totally unaware of until I found her.]
But in amongst all this it is often quite hard to remember where the gaps in your research are, and how good is the quality of the data you have. This is important if, like Noreen and I, you believe in being forensic in proving linkages. I’m never really happy until I can be pretty sure my evidence would stand the “beyond reasonable doubt” test of a criminal court. However, as Clarenceux King of Arms has reminded me more than once, you do occasionally have to fall back to the civil court standard of “on the balance of probabilities” – which does still require substantial evidence which would be allowable in court but not quite as rigorously as in a criminal court. There’s far too much guesswork and wishful thinking amongst family historians, and that won’t do, nor will copying other people’s research without checking it. Remember also the plural of anecdote is not data.
All the software packages I’ve looked at do allow you to reference and source your information, as any good researcher should. But what I have never found is a package which allows you to set, for each piece of information, a Red/Amber/Green traffic light style flag to indicate the quality of the data with a quick visual check. For instance a birth registration might be GREEN if you have the birth certificate or have seen the baptismal register; AMBER if it is information which is known in the family but not well documented, like Great-grandma’s birthday; but RED if is a date you’ve back-calculated from the age given on a death certificate or census (both of which are notoriously unreliable, albeit useful). To me this is a major failing and any family tree software application which includes RAG flags will have a significant selling point.
One thing I have found useful, and which provides some part of a way round the omission of RAG flags is a “family table”. Many sources provide pretty charts which allow you to plot out you, your parents, their parents, and their parents, and so on; ie. just your direct ancestors. This can be in circular form or in the more usual form of a tree. And they are mostly large cumbersome wallcharts with room for little more than the name; dates of birth and death if you’re lucky.
I’ve found it better to make my own using a simple table structure in MS Word (any word processing or spreadsheet software should do) – I stole the original idea from my wife and have since adapted it. I have three sheets, which takes me back to my GGGG-grandparents (so 250 or so years). It is designed to be printed on normal A4 paper; and carrying two or three sheets of paper in a pocket or handbag isn’t unreasonable – and very useful if you get into family conversations with relatives or friends. OK, so it isn’t as pretty as many of the commercial offerings, but that’s not important; it’s much more convenient.
Here are the first couple of pages of my table (click on the images for a larger view):

Sample Family Table 1 Sample Family Table 1

[I’ve redacted a few details, just to make it a bit harder for the criminally minded, but even if I hadn’t all the information is in the public domain, although it might cost a few quid and a lot of time to get at it.]
For me the other way this table wins is because I’ve used colour-coding. That means I have a very quick visual check on where I have holes and information I need to prove. The more black there is on the table the better the data. And as one might imagine by the time one reaches page 3 there are a lot of gaps and a lot of red – it’s all work in progress.
If anyone would like a blank copy of the table you can download the MS Word version here. If you do use it, let me know – just so I can wallow in feeling slightly useful! 🙂
Meanwhile happy ancestor hunting.

Five Questions, Series 10 #5

A big fanfare! Because we have reached the last question in Series 10 of Five Questions.

★★★★★

Question 5: How would you describe yourself in three words?
Totally fucked up.
★★★★★

OK, so that’s the end of this series of Five Questions. I hope you’ve enjoyed it, maybe learnt something (if only about my craziness) and possibly even had a think yourself.
As in the past, if I can find enough good – or crazy – questions I may do another series, sometime next year. So if you have a good question, or something you want to ask, then do please get in touch – or leave a note in the Comments. And yes you can ask literally anything you like!
Meanwhile, it’s the season to wish everyone a very merry Christmas and a fabulous New Year!

Five Questions, Series 10 #4

And so on to question four and we’re getting towards the end of this tenth series of Five Questions.

★★★★☆

Question 4: Why don’t sheep shrink when it rains?
Because they’re 10% nylon?
But seriously … The real answer is almost certainly to do with the cross-linking of the long-chain protein polymers that make up each hair and the mechanical interlinking between the individual hairs. The more random cross-linking there is, the more the proteins will fold together and the curlier (thus shorter) the hairs. Similarly the more random the mechanical interlinking, the more likely the fibres are to be shorter. Wool has to be processed to remove this interlinking and cross-linking and create straight fibres, which we call unshrunk. Heat, water and mechanical action go to create the randomisation of the linking and thus cause the fibres to shrink in the wash. Now sheep are a natural product; they aren’t processed. Hence their wool is pretty random and effectively pre-shrunk, so they aren’t going to shrink more in the rain.

Five Questions, Series 10 #3

Here we are at the halfway point, at question three in this series of Five Questions.

★★★☆☆

Question 3: Do illiterate people get the full effect of alphabet soup?

Can illiterate people even know what alphabet soup is?

Clearly if you’re totally illiterate you can’t get the full effect because you don’t even know what letters are let alone identify them.
Although, who knows, there may be a deeper hidden truth.