Category Archives: current affairs

current affairs, environment, thoughts

Reforming Society

2 Comments

Following on from my post of some weeks back where I looked at a model for Environmental Reform, I’ve now had a go at writing flows for the other areas which need to be reformed together if we are to truly change the way our society works – and thus save ourselves and the planet.

As I see it, the four main arenas for reform are:

  1. Environmental
  2. Economic
  3. Political
  4. Social

They are, of course, highly interdependent.

The diagrams below are my attempt to capture and codify what needs doing.
You’ll see that I have marked with “IN” arrows those places which it seems to me are the simplest and most obvious starting points. Linkages between the areas are shown with lettered lightning flashes.

Click the images for larger views
Environmental Reform

Economic Reform

Political Reform

Social Reform

Yes, it’s very complex; and I don’t pretend I’ve yet got my head round it, nor that the models are necessarily complete. Others may very well disagree with me, be able to add key areas for attention, or linkages between items.

None of this is going to be easy. In fact even the “input points” are going to be fought over. There are too many vested interests amongst the “not-so-great and not-so-good” who hold all the wealth and power worldwide. But also because those of us in the western world have been (relatively) comfortable until now and embarking on this will both threaten that comfort and involve major change – neither of which mankind, as a species, is instinctively equipped to handle as over the aeons it would have been an evolutionary disadvantage. [See, inter alia, Ryback, Lee and Pianka.]

Well perhaps the Coronavirus pandemic can give us a kick start in helping us overcome our (now dangerous) instincts by showing at least the western (developed) world:

  • We can significantly reduce travel, especially air travel, for both business and leisure: business doesn’t need to do it and it will likely be neither affordable nor attractive for leisure.
  • We don’t all need to commute for 2+ hours a day to pile into an office. Sure, many jobs (eg. shops, manufacturing, farming) have to be done from your employer’s premises, but by far from all do.
  • We don’t need to consume stuff at the greedy rate we do (that too is no longer an evolutionary necessity); we can manage with less. Much (especially personal) technology is not essential, merely nice to have. We need to go back to “make do and mend” rather than “throw it away and buy a new one”. Most consumption (beyond the basics) is no more than “cake and circuses” which enriches the already wealthy.
  • There is more to life than earning ever more money; by working longer and longer hours; to show you think you’re two steps better than the guy next door; striving to continually climb the greasy pole; and kidding yourself you’re important. [See Hutnik.]
  • But perhaps most critically, we might come to understand how important it is to have open and ethical government – and that this is possible, though not inevitable. [See Mair.]

Will any of that happen? I hope it will. But I fear it won’t. I suspect this current panic hasn’t hit nearly hard enough, so not enough people are sufficiently shit-scared (or dead), and so the will (or necessity) for change won’t be there. Even the Great Plague and Great Fire of London (1665 & 1666 respectively) didn’t really hit very hard (they were too localised); the two World Wars came somewhat closer; but only the real devastation of losing 30-50% of the population in the Black Death (1348-50) really caused major reform. And who remembers back 670 years?

The will for change may be there amongst (some of) those of us who think and care. However I suspect that after this current Coronavirus panic is over “the people” will go back to their old ways, rejoicing at having escaped the demon bug (‘cos it never happens to them!), demanding what they had before, and being as selfish as ever.

Judging by recent behaviour, the signs are not good.

current affairs, thoughts

Horrible Times 8

The more I see, the angrier and more despairing I become – despite the fact that I know it isn’t good for my blood pressure.

Just what do these self-important, selfish, stuffed shirted twats think they’re on?

Almost every major sport is trying to (re)start their season. Football, rugby, cricket, tennis, Formula 1 … and on and on. Top flight football in the UK is intending to restart in mid-June. They aren’t alone.

Why? Selfish vested interests and money.

All they are going to do is to add fuel to the flames of a second spike of Covid-19. Why can these guys not understand this? Why are they (and their sport) so much more important than people’s health? How do we restructure their brains?

Sport is a recreation. Unfortunately it has become big business made up of prima donnas and stuffed shirts. (In fairness the stuffed shirts were always there, at every level.) Sport is not essential; it is recreation, fun. At the end of the day it is dispensable and one of the last things which should be (re)starting once all else is running and things are stable again.

The politicians are not helping. In England from next week up to six people may meet, in the open air (public or private) as long as they observe 2 metre social distancing. They can even have make burnt offerings, aka. barbecues.

Just like the government did too little, too late at the start of this, they’re now doing too much, too soon and risking the gains we’ve managed to salvage from their incompetence. Do they seriously think that Joe “Dumbo” Public is going to manage to observe (or care about) 2 metre social distancing in his garden, with his and his mates kids running around killing each other, while the adults swig larger and smoke “substances”? And how is this going to be policed? An unenforceable law is worse than no law.

It was my friend Katy, over on Facebook, who pointed out:

Juvenal [in The Satires] coined the phrase “Bread and Circuses”. It was about the fact that the Roman senators created a grain dole for the poor in order to buy their votes and keep the peace in a time of increasing unrest and hardship.

And the fact that the Emperor Domitian who was a right bugger, used to create big celebrations to take people’s mind off whatever the Roman version of Stalinist purges and gulags were. Massacred three thousand peasants? Chuck them a circus and some balloons on a stick and we’re laughing.

I’m not sure what the bread in our current case is – maybe Brexit? But the return of non-essential sport, and allowing people to effectively have parties at this time, certainly look a lot like a circus to me.

Just watch the upturn in Covid-19 cases by the end of June.

Gawdelpus with this set of clowns in charge.

current affairs, personal, ramblings

Horrible Times 6

I’ve now been in lockdown since midday on 12 March, when I got home from my annual diabetic eye check (which I was surprised wasn’t cancelled). That’s 24 days and counting. I thought I’d just make a few brief notes about the good and the not so good recent happenings.

Not So Good

  1. Being in a higher risk category, which brings on fearfulness and self-isolation.
  2. Being unable to do a supermarket shop, because our decent supermarkets are either a bus ride or a taxi ride away (‘cos we don’t drive), and that feels too risky for either of us.
  3. The total inability to book a supermarket delivery, any supermarket delivery. And when you do, 50% of what you order isn’t available.
  4. The almost total absence of some commodities like bread flour and long-life milk.
  5. An inability to sign up for a “veg box” delivery.
  6. The nice sunny weather means I shall have to do some gardening, as much as my back will allow …
  7. … because the garden is untidy and is threatening to get away from us while we can’t get anyone to work on it.
  8. Two (Arab-looking) guys wandering down the road this morning shoulder to shoulder, the younger wearing a mask and talking to his mobile. Totally oblivious to what 6 feet is.
  9. The government’s pathetic response to the crisis: too little, too late; inadequate support for healthcare workers; delayed lockdown; stupidity of expecting herd immunity; inadequate self-isolation advice for the infected; almost complete absence of testing, so they’ve no clue what is actually happening … it goes on …
  10. All of that covered by wall-to-wall rolling TV news (which I’m mostly ignoring).
  11. I’m missing my fortnightly massage: it does keep my damaged back working but it is also enjoyable socially too.
  12. I know I’m not someone who is always out and about, but even so being forced to stay grounded is somewhat wearing.
  13. The inability to rise above (or kill off) all the stupid things I (feel I) have to do so I can sit and relax and read.
  14. A feeling of vulnerability and impending doom. Suddenly one realises one is all too mortal. And I’m unable to get my head round what it’ll be like not to be here, and not to be able to do the things I am doing.
  15. And then one feels like a helpless mesmerised rabbit in the headlights due to the stress and anxiety which feed the depression – rinse and repeat.

Good

  1. All the valiant and heroic NHS people, transport workers, and food supply-chain workers who are putting themselves at risk to help people and keep things moving.
  2. There’s certainly a sense of history: that we’re living through an historic period much like the Black Death (1349) or the Great Plague of London (1665) and beginning (but only beginning) to understand what it must have been like then. Yes that’s macabre, but also interesting and in a way rather fun.
  3. The quiet! It is just so quiet: no traffic noise, no planes in/out of Heathrow, not even many screaming kids. If you added back in a few mooing cows and whinnying horses this must be much like it was 600 years ago.
  4. Add to that the light and air quality. The lack of traffic, planes etc. has really reduced the pollution. The air is fresh, clear and not smelling of diesel and kerosene. And the light is bright, almost with that special clear quality one is used to seeing in East Anglia.
  5. The friend, who despite being an NHS worker with an elderly mum, is helping us by getting the odd few provisions and a bunch of flowers.
  6. One of the supermarkets (which I won’t name) seem to have decided (how?) that I’m on the vulnerable list for deliveries. This could be useful.
  7. Meanwhile Noreen has been able to get to the (pretty rubbish) local shops for the odd essentials.
  8. At the beginning of all this I had managed to book several Waitrose deliveries and have struck lucky with the odd slot ere and there – so we’re doing OK for food.
  9. It’s a lovely warm sunny Spring day today (Sunday) and the week promises to be largely the same. That means the garden is getting green and the apple blossom is coming out.
  10. As of writing this we’re both still healthy.

current affairs, food+drink

Horrible Times 4

Riddle me this …

If, as the government says, there is plenty of food in the supermarkets …
… how is it that today’s supermarket grocery delivery had half the items unavailable and most of the other half substituted?

We got no tomatoes, peppers, cauliflower, greens, potatoes, aubergine, fennel, parsley, onions. And that’s just the salad/veg.

Then there’s no bread, bread flour, baked beans, tinned kidney beans, milk, eggs.

But we did get chicken, duck, steak, sausages, smoked salmon, ham, butter, cheese and ice cream.

We’ll not starve, but so much for 5-a-day and a balanced diet!

current affairs, thoughts

Horrible Times 3

At least some elements of the Labour Party are saying we need to have a National Income Guarantee Scheme, to ensure everyone continues to have the money to live. This is, in my view, the correct humanitarian response. But also one which should force the wholesale rationalisation and simplification of the benefits system.

People’s ability to survive has to be supported and protected, and not just by protecting them from the disease. This protection has to come ahead of bailing out business. If people survive, business will survive. Without people there is no business.

If people have secure income, companies are expendable. If businesses don’t survive, they can be rebuilt as long as there are people who survive to do it. Hence people must come first.

No, I don’t care if every (passenger) airline goes out of business. Or every manufacturer of TVs. Or every theatre and pub. They can be rebuilt later. But we do still need to be producing food and medicine – and moving it around.

Ultimately that is where the effort has to be: protect the people and the food supply chain.

Along with this I have seen it suggested that there should be a 0% interest rate on all personal/household debt. My guess is that this would need to last at least a year. I can see the logic behind this, although it would no doubt also mean 0% interest for savers. A reduction in debt interest would not affect us (our only debt is a relatively small amount on credit cards); but no interest on savings would hit us – although not hard because heaven knows we already get little enough interest on our savings.

This is all very fine, but one has to ask where the government finds the money for this. The government doesn’t have a money-tree. The only money they have is what they collect in tax or what they can borrow. They have already borrowed more than it is going to be comfortable to ever repay. Where does the tax come from? Your and my pockets: either directly (income tax, national insurance) or indirectly (VAT, excise duty, corporation tax). If we don’t have any money, the government collects no tax. Without tax income there can be no income guarantee scheme, no bailouts, and no NHS. This is the economics of the capitalist system we live in. Chicken meet egg.

beliefs, current affairs, thoughts

Horrible Times 2

OK, so were some days into … well what? … variable amounts of everything and nothing; huge amounts of existential worry and threat.

We’re effectively being told to stay at home permanently (almost under house arrest) although the supermarkets are open – with special hours for geriatrics and the invalid, which are reportedly more crowded than normal and seem a good way to kill off the unwanted. But if we do stay at home we could starve as supermarket deliveries are booked up weeks in advance.

Everything is feeling very fragile, demoralising and really frightening. It’s very much how the Black Death must have been back in 1349: one never knows where it’s going to hit next, if I’m going to succumb, or where one’s next meal is coming from. And, yes, we could get there! If we go into full lockdown, then there could well be issues with the food supply chain and access to supermarkets – on top of what we’re seeing now. Remember, with schools closed from tomorrow, there could well be people who can’t go to work because they can’t find alternative childcare, and that could hit all sorts of hands-on businesses which includes the whole of the food supply chain.

Am I being extraordinarily pessimistic? Well maybe, or then again maybe not. I know I always say “don’t worry about things you can’t control”, and we can’t control a lot of this. But when it comes to having food and drink one is threatening the very substance of existence, and reactions become especially visceral. Recall Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs:

At least in western society we’re all used to working near the apex of the pyramid; certainly in the top two layers. But what’s happening now is sending us rapidly down a helter-skelter. The middle “love and belonging” layer is currently coming into it’s own. But some are already going to be down in the “safety & security” layer and any disruption to the food supply chain could leave people with a great deal of uncertainty about their very ability to survive. And once one gets down nearer to the bottom two levels people feel increasingly threatened and start to get nasty as they try to protect their existence – just as any animal will.

I have no idea what is going to happen, but I fear the worst; I’m pretty sure it’s going to get a lot worse before it gets better. And it looks like being a long haul: if we get away with anything much under two years I’ll be highly delighted.

Two years! Yes, because although we have protective restrictions now, once the infection rate drops and the restrictions are lifted it is highly likely the virus will rebound and we could go through a (say) six-monthly cycle several times before things settle out fully.

[Incidentally there is some good modelling of a number of possible interventions from the highly-regarded team at Imperial College, London; and it is this which appears to be influencing the UK’s current thinking. The paper is actually quite readable.]

None of this is at all good for those of us who already suffer with depression, or any other mental health issue. I, like I suspect many other people, feel totally disconnected from everything; completely isolated, both socially and physically; and scared about my ability to come out the other side of this.

But all we can do is to try to keep going as best we can.

current affairs, medical, science, thoughts

Coronavirus: Attitudes to Panic

This post has originated in all the fuss surrounding the Coronavirus situation. In it I’m not interested in the science of how the Coronavirus works, or how it is being treated. I’m more interested in our reactions and the way we (individually and collectively) are approaching the problem.

The post is constructed around quotes from four comment articles [1-4] (referenced below) which have appeared in the last few days.

What’s interesting to me, from a rational standpoint, is the psychology and attitudes behind what is happening.

In the new coronavirus, we see a world that is more connected than ever by international travel, but that has also succumbed to growing isolationism and xenophobia. We see a time when scientific research and the demand for news, the spread of misinformation and the spread of a virus, all happen at a relentless, blistering pace. [4]

For example: The number of people travelling by plane every year has more than doubled since SARS first emerged, in 2003 [4] and we now have 24 hour rolling news both online and on TV.

On top of that

People are often optimistic about risks [called] “optimism bias”; people may think they can control their own exposure to diseases, that they don’t need a vaccine because they aren’t susceptible to flu, or that they won’t transmit their cold to others. [1]

It’s entirely normal that there are still many uncertainties [4]. We don’t yet know enough to be completely certain about the risks of COVID-19 … no one really knows how bad COVID-19 is, and how much damage it could eventually lead to [3].

For instance: How transmissible is the virus? Once infected, how much time passes before people show symptoms, and how likely are they to die? Which people are most at risk? [4].

It appears that on average, infected people spread the virus to two or three others [4]. This the Basic Reproduction Number (what epidemiologists call R0). It is about the same as that for flu, but way lower than for measles which has an R0 of 12-18 [5].

Current data suggests that COVID-19 kills around 2% (the Case Fatality Rate) of those infected [3] (although expect this number to change). However flu with a Case Fatality Rate of 0.1% kills more people [3] (presumably because although it is more widespread, we have a vaccine).

Even the normally cautious epidemiologists don’t know the answers. Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch [says] “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable” [2].

In fact

Lipsitch predicts that within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But … this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses. “It’s likely that many will have mild disease, or may be asymptomatic”. [2]

That doesn’t sound good, so no wonder the uncertainties that academics are used to dealing with, about fatality rates or transmissibility, are stoking fear [4] because when we’re uncertain about something, we often rely upon our feelings and prior experiences in place of information. Surgical face masks offer the sense, however illusory, of protection [1].

Indeed

According to experts, the value of surgical masks depends entirely on the context in which they’re used: a surgical mask won’t work unless it’s worn consistently and properly. If worn incorrectly, their utility quickly plummets … Though face masks may provide the feeling of security, masks are most valuable in situations where they are necessary – such as among front-line health workers … We touch our faces, noses and eyes many times a day, making it difficult to completely avoid contact with infection. [1]

[If you want more on face-mask efficacy, see my post “Coronavirus and Face Masks” of a few days ago.]

While

researchers can share data and refine ideas faster than ever … they’re doing so in full view of a concerned citizenry … [and] … preliminary data that might once have run the gantlet of peer review before being published can now be downloaded by anyone, sparking misinterpretations and conspiracy theories. [4]

A climate of uncertainty can cause misinformation to flourish [1] and create fertile ground for mixed messages and inconsistency, which in itself can breed mistrust and fear [3]. And as we all know false reports readily cascade through channels that amplify extreme messages over accurate ones … Hoaxes and half-truths are huge problems during epidemics [4].

But of course we’re often required to make decisions based on having incomplete information [3]. I would actually go further: we never have all the information we need to make the decision; all we can do is to make the best decision we can at the time with the (limited) information we have.

This is why clear messaging from trusted sources, and guidance on what to do and how to do it, is essential during a pandemic [1]. Especially communicate often, communicate what is and isn’t known clearly, and provide simple action items for individuals to take … like hand-washing [and] acknowledge that [all of this] may change quickly [3].

However with public health that’s not easy. The risks of sending the “wrong” message can have devastating consequences – unnecessary anxiety on the one hand … and thousands of unnecessary deaths on the other [3]. And confused citizens might forgo sensible measures such as hand washing in favour of inefficient ones like panicked mask buying [4].

What’s perhaps worse is that border screenings and travel bans have historically proved ineffective and inefficient at controlling diseases. If anything, they can make matters worse. People will find a way to get where they want to go [4]. For example, although the Iran/Afghanistan border has been closed, some 3000 people cross that border illegally every day [6].

What’s more

bans can also break the fragile bonds of international trust … If countries know that they’ll be cut off during an epidemic … they may be less likely to report future outbreaks, leading to costly delays. [4]
Waiting too long to sound the alarm can be disastrous. [3]

As with many things this leaves us with a spectrum of possible reaction and attitude.

On the rational end, we must ask ourselves about … the effectiveness of [any] solution … [and how individuals can use that] solution effectively. On the emotional end, we ask ourselves about … how severe might it be if we … were infected [and] how likely we might contract it. [3]

A lot of the expert discussion (or at least discussion quoting experts) in the media has been at the rational end about the effectiveness of various actions, while I suspect a majority of individuals are inclined to work more towards the emotional end of the spectrum – often because they’re not presented with clear, concise, factual information; whether deliberately by the less reputable press and politicians, by omission, or because it is just packaged in a way they can’t understand.

At the end of the day we probably have to move individuals quite a long way (probably further than is possible) towards the rational side, while at the same time ensuring that the experts are doing as much as possible to make the right solutions effective and have some understanding to allow them to meet the individuals part way. That’s probably a circle that can never be made fully square. Nevertheless the experts have to work their socks off to square the circle as best they can, and take the people with them in supporting their solutions. And that ain’t ever going to be easy.

[1] “When it comes to coronavirus, we shouldn’t let our feelings trump the facts”; 26 February 2020; https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/26/coronavirus-feelings-facts-face-masks-covid-19

[2] “You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus”; 24 February 2020; https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

[3] “Uncertainty in a Time of Coronavirus”; 26 February 2020; https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/uncertainty-in-a-time-of-coronavirus/

[4] “The New Coronavirus Is a Truly Modern Epidemic” 3 February 2020; https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/02/coronavirus-very-2020-epidemic/605941/

[5] “Basic reproduction number”; 27 February 2020; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

[6] “Coronavirus in a war zone: Afghanistan braces for outbreak after first case”; 26 February 2020; https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/feb/26/coronavirus-in-a-war-zone-afghanistan-braces-for-outbreak-after-first-case

current affairs

Welcome!

Welcome everyone in the UK to the world’s newest third world country

So you think Britain isn’t a third world country?
Outside the EU it will be about as important as Tristan da Cunha.

Gawdelpus!

amusements, current affairs, personal, ramblings

Predictions for 2020

Once again this year I’ve retrieved my crystal ball from the back of the wardrobe and dusted it off. However it becomes cloudier by the day so despite regular consultations over the last month what follows are my guesses at what may happen during 2020.

As before, I’ve divided the predictions into sections: UK, World and Personal. I figured that Brexit is now so likely to happen that it is “business as usual” and doesn’t warrant its own section. Note also that various items are currently redacted (although I have them documented) as some might consider them over-sensitive.

Disclaimer. I remind you that these are just my ideas of what could happen; they’re based solely on hunches and gut feel; I have no inside knowledge, I haven’t been studying the form, and I have a success rate of about 20%. So if you base any decision on any of this I will take no responsibility for your wanton act of idiocy or its consequences.

UK

  1. Look out for natural disasters around 9-10/02 (snow), 9-10/03, 7-8/04 (very wet Easter), 6-7/05 (financial crash) (all of these dates are moon at perigee and full).
    Also 30-31/10 (plane crash) (moon is at apogee, full and a Blue Moon).
  2. Penumbral lunar eclipse (visible in London) 10/01, 05/06, 05/07, 30/11 may also presage problems.
  3. UK leaves EU on 31/01: UK will not request a further extension and anyway the EU wouldn’t grant it.
    Leave deal will be unsatisfactory (basically the deal of 10/2019, passed due to Tory majority in the new parliament) containing many Henry VIII clauses (many of which will be abused before YE).
  4. Government cannot agree a trade deal with EU by YE.
    If the EU proposes an extension beyond YE 2020 the UK government will refuse it, thus cementing a total “no deal” Brexit.
  5. Boris Johnson continues to believe in unicorns and will ride out the economic turmoil following Brexit.
  6. Corbin is replaced as Labour Leader by a woman; possibly one of Yvette Cooper, Stella Creasy, Angela Eagle, Angela Rayner. (Predicted before the runners and riders are declared.)
  7. Despite attempts by UK and Ireland, the parties in Ulster are unable to agree a power sharing administration.
  8. There’s a move to reunite Ireland as the post-Brexit border is unworkable.
    This could stimulate Sinn Féin take their seats at Westminster to try to push through the reunification.
  9. Scotland is denied an independence referendum in 2020 by Westminster and fails to get a Supreme Court ruling in it’s favour.
    The SNP will build resentment against Westminster in order to win elections (and maybe a referendum) in 2021/22.
  10. Increasing calls for reform of electoral system (to some form of proportional representation) but they’re continually blocked by the government who implement boundary changes to cement their position.
  11. HS2 gets the go-ahead and a feasibility study into extensions to Edinburgh/Glasgow and Cardiff.
  12. Fracking is allowed to restart.
  13. Sadiq Khan wins a second term as London Mayor – but only just.
  14. Nigel Farage gets a peerage; John Bercow, Kenneth Clarke and Dominic Grieve do not.
  15. Appointees to the Supreme Court (eg. the replacement for Lady Hale) are seen as being clearly political appointees, rather than appropriate legals.
  16. Because of the economic turmoil the UK is in recession by YE.
    Unemployment hits 10%.
    Bank of England Interest Rate returns to 0%.
  17. Sterling plummets against dollar and Euro following the UK’s exit from the EU.
  18. Inflation rises to at least 10% by YE, mainly due to large cost increases in the food industry and hospitality sector.
  19. FTSE falls 10% cf. start of year – due to Brexit and the financial crash.
  20. Financial crash, probably in early May, with the possibility that a bank will fail.
  21. S&P and/or Moody’s downgrade UK creditworthiness by two levels.
  22. Mortgage interest rates hit 10% before YE.
    Average UK house prices fall by at least 10%.
    Repossessions double.
  23. Pensions (private & state) are compulsorily frozen.
  24. Drug prices double as the US buys up the NHS.
    Prescription charges are extended to everyone with no exemptions.
  25. Either ASDA or Morrison’s fails or is taken over; Debenhams finally fails.
    Major problems for M&S and/or John Lewis – a partnership between the two looks likely.
  26. Major drug/alcohol or fraud/fixing issue uncovered in one or more of UK athletics, rugby, cricket.
  27. Extinction Rebellion fizzles out.
  28. Diane Abbott and Theresa May are diagnosed with long-term illnesses.
  29. Magnitude 4 or greater earthquake somewhere in UK.
  30. At least 200 deaths in illegal migration attempts to the UK.
  31. Plans announced to replace the Thames Barrier; work to start 2025 and complete 2040.
  32. Announcement that London congestion charge zone will be expanded out to N & S Circulars in 2025/6.
  33. Relatively mild wet January/February followed by a cold wet spring & summer thus ensuring a poor fruit and grain harvest.
  34. Death of the Queen and Prince Philip.
    Possibly also Prince Charles, in an accident.
    William becomes King by YE.
  35. Other Deaths: Edwina Currey, Gordon Brown, a royal duke, Kenneth Clarke, Jeffrey Archer, Dennis Skinner, Lord Heseltine, Lord Gowrie.

World

  1. Trump wins 2020 Presidential election due to Democrat dissent over their candidate.
  2. Saudi Arabia drastically cuts oil exports amid internecine turmoil.
  3. Zimbabwe finally succumbs to outright civil war which spills over into South Africa.
  4. South American countries descend further into right-wing government.
  5. Rate of Amazonian deforestation increases.
    Global temperature and CO2 emissions continue to rise.
    The COP26 climate talks in Glasgow (in November) end in disagreement and failure.
  6. Major violence (civil war?) in Turkey.
  7. Violent uprising continues in Hong Kong and India.
  8. Russia annexes one of the Baltic states.
  9. Big solar geomagnetic storm causes major breakdown of satellites and infrastructure, probably across North America but possibly elsewhere.
  10. Collision between two operational satellites (maybe as a result of geomagnetic storm).
  11. Boeing Starliner and Space X Crew Dragon both launch crewed capsules.
    One of them fails with loss of the crew.
  12. At least one other major space mission fails.
  13. Magnitude 7 or greater earthquake in California and another in Peru.
  14. Greta Thunberg is burnt out and sinks out of sight to complete her education.
  15. At least one major global IT company fails (or is saved only by a takeover).
    Also a major airline and a shipping line.
  16. Major plane crash in western Europe – possibly France – possibly controlled flight into terrain.
  17. Ebola flares again in central Africa.
  18. Significant new disease emerges (as MERS and SARS did); concern at possible pandemic.
  19. Number of western countries ban vaping or include it in their anti-smoking regulations.
  20. Amazon and/or Facebook is involved in a major anti-trust or privacy law suit.
  21. Deaths: Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Dalai Lama, Angela Merkel, Bill Gates, Rupert Murdoch.

Personal

  1. Personal (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
  2. Neighbours1 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
  3. Neighbours2: [[REDACTED]]
  4. Neighbours3: [[REDACTED]]
  5. Local Community1 (a), (b), (c): [[REDACTED]]
  6. Local Community2 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
  7. Local Community3: [[REDACTED]]
  8. Friends1 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
  9. Friends2 (a), (b), (c): [[REDACTED]]
  10. Friends3: [[REDACTED]]
  11. Friends4 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
  12. Friends5 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
  13. Friends6: [[REDACTED]]
  14. Friends7: [[REDACTED]]
  15. Deaths: 11 named individuals [[REDACTED]]

These have all been redacted as the content is bound to be sensitive to people I know, however they are documented in my files and will be reported on at the end of the year.

Obviously I shall keep a tally and will publish the results at the end of the year. Let’s hope I do better this year than I have over the last several?

I’m conscious that much of the above will be in people’s “bad news” category. So this year I intend to also log good news stories. Good news is, of course, a rather flexible concept as it depends on one’s values of “Good” and “News”. The stories I log will therefore be ones which meet or exceed my personal, flexible and arbitrary values of Good and News. Hopefully there’ll be a list at the end of the year.

amusements, current affairs, personal, ramblings

Predictions for 2019: The Results

This time last year I made a series of predictions about what would happen during 2019. So what did I get right, and what wrong?
[Some of the items remain redacted to protect the sensitive and innocent.]

UK (Brexit)

Most of these predictions stand or fall on the outcome of the first two.

  1. Despite all the clamour, there will not be a second referendum on Brexit, and even if there is the result will still be Leave. CORRECT
  2. Parliament will not be able to agree the negotiated deal so Britain leaves the EU on 29 March with no deal, no fall-back plan, and no “implementation period”. WRONG as Brexit was delayed, twice.
  3. All trade stops as it is discovered that WTO rules cannot be applied instantly and easily. Resolution takes at least 3 months. WRONG.
  4. A hard border has to be implemented in Ireland almost overnight and is accomplished only by using troops. WRONG.
  5. There’s surprise that airlines cannot fly in/out of UK, and this badly affects food/medicine supply. WRONG.
  6. There are delays of up to a week (ie. that’s how long trucks have to queue) to get goods in/out to Europe via the seaports. Troops are required to manage the flow of trucks. WRONG.
  7. UK economy is in recession by mid-year. WRONG; although it was close towards the latter part of the year.
  8. Food and medicine supply issues are biting hard by end April as stocks run low and imports are almost impossible. There won’t be rationing but there will be significantly empty supermarket shelves. WRONG.
  9. There’s no insulin available by end May. Lack of insulin and other diabetes drugs results in 5K excess deaths during the year and another 5K avoided only due to an increased rate of amputations. The NHS estimate that a further 50K have unnecessary adverse events. WRONG.
  10. Due to import issues prices rise sharply and inflation hits 20% but stabilises to 5% by year-end. WRONG; inflation fell to 1.5% in November.
  11. Bank base rate is reduced to 0% as the banking sector is unable to do business/make money. Most savings rates are 0% while the mortgage rate rises to at least 10% resulting in an increase of repossessions. WRONG.
  12. House prices fall by 20-30%. WRONG; in October (latest data available) year-on-year house prices were up 0.8%.
  13. At some point during the year £1 will be worth no more than $0.90, and €0.90 (although not necessarily at the same time). CORRECT (just!); in July we got to £1=€0.85 at some UK airports.
  14. Moody’s downrate UK credit rating by at least two notches. WRONG; to my surprise.
  15. Despite this the FTSE100 ends the year up 10%. CORRECT; FTSE100 was up just over 12% at close on 31/12.

UK (Other)

  1. This is a year of trouble, unrest and pigeons coming home to roost – not all caused by Brexit but often due to incompetence and/or poor planning. Good news is in very short supply. CORRECT; see inter alia school kids striking for climate change, Extinction Rebellion, and many demonstrations about Brexit.
  2. Theresa May resigns as PM, possibly due to ill health. CORRECT.
  3. Andrea Leadsom becomes PM and appoints Jacob Rees-Mogg as Chancellor, with Boris Johnson as Deputy PM. WRONG.
  4. Ulster sectarian troubles boil over again; multiple shootings / bombings by both sides. CORRECT; but not as much as I feared.
  5. Labour Party adopts an official policy to re-unify Ireland. WRONG.
  6. TfL is declared bankrupt, causing chaos for London travellers. The government refuses to provide a bail-out. This results in many redundancies, pruned services and upgrade projects, and protracted strike action. WRONG.
  7. Work on Crossrail is paused, and the opening delayed to 2021. The Emirates Dangleway will close. Crossrail 2 is postponed by at least 3 years. CORRECT about Crossrail which will not now open until “sometime in 2021”. WRONG about the Dangleway. No good clues about Crossrail 2.
  8. HS2 is cut back due to lack of funding. Heathrow Third Runway is also delayed due to lack of money. Hinkley C nuclear power station development is cancelled. CORRECT about Heathrow Runway 3 which will be delayed from 2026 to maybe as late as 2029. WRONG about HS2 and Hinkley Point C.
  9. There’s a murder on my street. WRONG.
  10. The Sussex’s baby [REDACTED] will be named Diana or Iris (if a girl); Robert or David (if a boy). WRONG.
  11. A reintroduced wolf or lynx kills a human. WRONG.
  12. Beavers are found to be colonising the upper reaches of the Thames basin. No-one knows (or will admit to) how they got there. WRONG.
  13. A feral big cat (probably lynx or puma) is conclusively confirmed somewhere in the UK; it may be captured or shot to confirm the identification. WRONG; there were the usual purported sightings but no conclusive evidence.
  14. Major terrorist attack somewhere in UK (probably London) kills 50 including a high profile politician or minor royal. PARTLY CORRECT; the major UK incident seems to have been the London Bridge attack with two, plus attacker, dead.
  15. The country lurches even further towards pervasive surveillance and a police state with troops, and openly armed police, regularly on the streets in major conurbations. WRONG.
  16. At least one train crash and one plane crash; each with 20 dead. WRONG.
  17. A rail franchise will fail and have to be taken back into public ownership. WRONG.
  18. A major hospital (in England) fails and closes unexpectedly. WRONG.
  19. At least three major companies (possibly including a bank/building society and a supermarket) fail; 1000 job losses each. CORRECT: Patisserie Valerie, Jamie Oliver’s restaurants, Thomas Cook, Wrightbus, Mothercare.
  20. Deaths: Bill Turnbull, Tariq Ali, George Monbiot, David Jason, Derek Jacobi, Richard Branson, Leslie Phillips, Prince Philip, another Royal Duke/Prince. WRONG on all counts.

World

  1. Anthropologists discover that an isolated tribe (probably in Africa; possibly pygmies) is not Homo sapiens but another hominin species. WRONG.
  2. DNA recovered from ancient hominin teeth totally changes our current understanding of human evolution. WRONG; although with the apparent discovery that people were in Australia much earlier than thought this might have been quite close.
  3. Astronomers identify another extra-solar system “asteroid” visitor (like ‘Oumuamua) and prove this one is an alien spacecraft, although it appears to be dead. PARTLY CORRECT; another alien visitor has been found but it’s an asteroid.
  4. The upgraded LIGO experiment fails to reproduce its previous detection of gravitational waves, throwing whole areas of physics into turmoil. WRONG.
  5. There will be significant damage to ISS which forces its abandonment and a long pause in manned space-flight. WRONG.
  6. Donald Trump is confirmed to be suffering from a mild form of dementia, but is ruled as still fit to govern. WRONG.
  7. CO2 emissions rise by at least 5% year-on-year in US, India and China. INCONCLUSIVE; although China was reported to be 4% up in 1H2019, there’s too little easily available data to judge.
  8. In a petulant move, Russia cuts off gas supply to Europe for at least three months. WRONG.
  9. The global average temperature for the year is at least 1°C above the long-term average. PARTLY CORRECT and it’s going to be very close; YtD data for November shows land+ocean temperature 0.94°C above the long-term average; land only 1.39°C; ocean only 0.77°C.
  10. There’s a disease pandemic – cause currently unknown, but not flu, Ebola or Zika. WRONG.
  11. There’s an outbreak of Ebola in South America; plus 6 cases in UK, not all imported. WRONG; just more Ebola in Africa.
  12. Major terrorist attacks in western world: 1 in USA and 2 in other places; combined deaths 250. PARTLY CORRECT; several attacks, most notably New Zealand with 51 deaths, El Paso, Texas 22 dead.
  13. More die in mass shootings in USA this year than in 2018. CORRECT; according to Wikipedia 486 deaths in 2019 cf. 387 in 2018.
  14. Saudi Arabia annexes one or more of UAE, Dubai, Kuwait. WRONG.
  15. A Chinese warship fires at a US Navy vessel in the South China Sea; this may be the start of a US/China war in the area. WRONG.
  16. MH370 is found by accident in waters between Australia, Papua New Guinea and East Timor. One of the black boxes is recovered. WRONG.
  17. At least one round the world sailor is lost at sea and never found (although the deserted yacht is found). WRONG.
  18. There are three major transport accidents (plane/train/cruise liner/ferry) each with 100 deaths. PARTLY CORRECT; Ethiopian airliner crash with 157 dead, Iraqi ferry with about 100 dead, Pakistan train crash with 73+ dead; plus an Aeroflot plane crash (41 dead), Cairo train fire (25 dead), Chilean plane crash (38 dead).
  19. There’s a major earthquake (around magnitude 8) along the Himalayas which causes widespread destruction in Tibet, Nepal and Bhutan with thousands of deaths. As a result the summit of Mt Everest is 1m lower. WRONG.
  20. Deaths: Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Robert Mugabe, Pope Emeritus Benedict, Elon Musk, a major European politician. CORRECT about Mugabe. WRONG about the rest.

Personal

  1. In family history, I finally unlock the brick wall in my Marshall line in mid-18th century, although I then get stuck at about 1700. WRONG.
  2. Family. [REDACTED] PARTLY CORRECT.
  3. Personal. I’m diagnosed with BPH (possibly low grade cancer) but surgery not required. WRONG.
  4. Doctors. [REDACTED] CORRECT on one item. WRONG about the other two.
  5. Friends 1. [REDACTED] WRONG.
  6. Friends 2. [REDACTED] WRONG about the first part. CORRECT about the second part.
  7. Friends 3. [REDACTED] WRONG.
  8. Friends 4. [REDACTED] WRONG.
  9. My total lottery winnings for the year are less than £50. WRONG, but still less than £200.
  10. Deaths. [REDACTED] WRONG; of 14 people listed, two died in 2018 (unknown to me when making the predictions) and the other 12 are still on life as far as I am aware.

That is an absolutely pathetic hit rate for which I deserve to be sacked – lucky I’m not a football manager!

Tomorrow I’ll post my predictions for 2020. Watch this space.