Category Archives: current affairs

beliefs, current affairs, thoughts

Horrible Times 2

OK, so were some days into … well what? … variable amounts of everything and nothing; huge amounts of existential worry and threat.

We’re effectively being told to stay at home permanently (almost under house arrest) although the supermarkets are open – with special hours for geriatrics and the invalid, which are reportedly more crowded than normal and seem a good way to kill off the unwanted. But if we do stay at home we could starve as supermarket deliveries are booked up weeks in advance.

Everything is feeling very fragile, demoralising and really frightening. It’s very much how the Black Death must have been back in 1349: one never knows where it’s going to hit next, if I’m going to succumb, or where one’s next meal is coming from. And, yes, we could get there! If we go into full lockdown, then there could well be issues with the food supply chain and access to supermarkets – on top of what we’re seeing now. Remember, with schools closed from tomorrow, there could well be people who can’t go to work because they can’t find alternative childcare, and that could hit all sorts of hands-on businesses which includes the whole of the food supply chain.

Am I being extraordinarily pessimistic? Well maybe, or then again maybe not. I know I always say “don’t worry about things you can’t control”, and we can’t control a lot of this. But when it comes to having food and drink one is threatening the very substance of existence, and reactions become especially visceral. Recall Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs:

At least in western society we’re all used to working near the apex of the pyramid; certainly in the top two layers. But what’s happening now is sending us rapidly down a helter-skelter. The middle “love and belonging” layer is currently coming into it’s own. But some are already going to be down in the “safety & security” layer and any disruption to the food supply chain could leave people with a great deal of uncertainty about their very ability to survive. And once one gets down nearer to the bottom two levels people feel increasingly threatened and start to get nasty as they try to protect their existence – just as any animal will.

I have no idea what is going to happen, but I fear the worst; I’m pretty sure it’s going to get a lot worse before it gets better. And it looks like being a long haul: if we get away with anything much under two years I’ll be highly delighted.

Two years! Yes, because although we have protective restrictions now, once the infection rate drops and the restrictions are lifted it is highly likely the virus will rebound and we could go through a (say) six-monthly cycle several times before things settle out fully.

[Incidentally there is some good modelling of a number of possible interventions from the highly-regarded team at Imperial College, London; and it is this which appears to be influencing the UK’s current thinking. The paper is actually quite readable.]

None of this is at all good for those of us who already suffer with depression, or any other mental health issue. I, like I suspect many other people, feel totally disconnected from everything; completely isolated, both socially and physically; and scared about my ability to come out the other side of this.

But all we can do is to try to keep going as best we can.

current affairs, medical, science, thoughts

Coronavirus: Attitudes to Panic

This post has originated in all the fuss surrounding the Coronavirus situation. In it I’m not interested in the science of how the Coronavirus works, or how it is being treated. I’m more interested in our reactions and the way we (individually and collectively) are approaching the problem.

The post is constructed around quotes from four comment articles [1-4] (referenced below) which have appeared in the last few days.

What’s interesting to me, from a rational standpoint, is the psychology and attitudes behind what is happening.

In the new coronavirus, we see a world that is more connected than ever by international travel, but that has also succumbed to growing isolationism and xenophobia. We see a time when scientific research and the demand for news, the spread of misinformation and the spread of a virus, all happen at a relentless, blistering pace. [4]

For example: The number of people travelling by plane every year has more than doubled since SARS first emerged, in 2003 [4] and we now have 24 hour rolling news both online and on TV.

On top of that

People are often optimistic about risks [called] “optimism bias”; people may think they can control their own exposure to diseases, that they don’t need a vaccine because they aren’t susceptible to flu, or that they won’t transmit their cold to others. [1]

It’s entirely normal that there are still many uncertainties [4]. We don’t yet know enough to be completely certain about the risks of COVID-19 … no one really knows how bad COVID-19 is, and how much damage it could eventually lead to [3].

For instance: How transmissible is the virus? Once infected, how much time passes before people show symptoms, and how likely are they to die? Which people are most at risk? [4].

It appears that on average, infected people spread the virus to two or three others [4]. This the Basic Reproduction Number (what epidemiologists call R0). It is about the same as that for flu, but way lower than for measles which has an R0 of 12-18 [5].

Current data suggests that COVID-19 kills around 2% (the Case Fatality Rate) of those infected [3] (although expect this number to change). However flu with a Case Fatality Rate of 0.1% kills more people [3] (presumably because although it is more widespread, we have a vaccine).

Even the normally cautious epidemiologists don’t know the answers. Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch [says] “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable” [2].

In fact

Lipsitch predicts that within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But … this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses. “It’s likely that many will have mild disease, or may be asymptomatic”. [2]

That doesn’t sound good, so no wonder the uncertainties that academics are used to dealing with, about fatality rates or transmissibility, are stoking fear [4] because when we’re uncertain about something, we often rely upon our feelings and prior experiences in place of information. Surgical face masks offer the sense, however illusory, of protection [1].

Indeed

According to experts, the value of surgical masks depends entirely on the context in which they’re used: a surgical mask won’t work unless it’s worn consistently and properly. If worn incorrectly, their utility quickly plummets … Though face masks may provide the feeling of security, masks are most valuable in situations where they are necessary – such as among front-line health workers … We touch our faces, noses and eyes many times a day, making it difficult to completely avoid contact with infection. [1]

[If you want more on face-mask efficacy, see my post “Coronavirus and Face Masks” of a few days ago.]

While

researchers can share data and refine ideas faster than ever … they’re doing so in full view of a concerned citizenry … [and] … preliminary data that might once have run the gantlet of peer review before being published can now be downloaded by anyone, sparking misinterpretations and conspiracy theories. [4]

A climate of uncertainty can cause misinformation to flourish [1] and create fertile ground for mixed messages and inconsistency, which in itself can breed mistrust and fear [3]. And as we all know false reports readily cascade through channels that amplify extreme messages over accurate ones … Hoaxes and half-truths are huge problems during epidemics [4].

But of course we’re often required to make decisions based on having incomplete information [3]. I would actually go further: we never have all the information we need to make the decision; all we can do is to make the best decision we can at the time with the (limited) information we have.

This is why clear messaging from trusted sources, and guidance on what to do and how to do it, is essential during a pandemic [1]. Especially communicate often, communicate what is and isn’t known clearly, and provide simple action items for individuals to take … like hand-washing [and] acknowledge that [all of this] may change quickly [3].

However with public health that’s not easy. The risks of sending the “wrong” message can have devastating consequences – unnecessary anxiety on the one hand … and thousands of unnecessary deaths on the other [3]. And confused citizens might forgo sensible measures such as hand washing in favour of inefficient ones like panicked mask buying [4].

What’s perhaps worse is that border screenings and travel bans have historically proved ineffective and inefficient at controlling diseases. If anything, they can make matters worse. People will find a way to get where they want to go [4]. For example, although the Iran/Afghanistan border has been closed, some 3000 people cross that border illegally every day [6].

What’s more

bans can also break the fragile bonds of international trust … If countries know that they’ll be cut off during an epidemic … they may be less likely to report future outbreaks, leading to costly delays. [4]
Waiting too long to sound the alarm can be disastrous. [3]

As with many things this leaves us with a spectrum of possible reaction and attitude.

On the rational end, we must ask ourselves about … the effectiveness of [any] solution … [and how individuals can use that] solution effectively. On the emotional end, we ask ourselves about … how severe might it be if we … were infected [and] how likely we might contract it. [3]

A lot of the expert discussion (or at least discussion quoting experts) in the media has been at the rational end about the effectiveness of various actions, while I suspect a majority of individuals are inclined to work more towards the emotional end of the spectrum – often because they’re not presented with clear, concise, factual information; whether deliberately by the less reputable press and politicians, by omission, or because it is just packaged in a way they can’t understand.

At the end of the day we probably have to move individuals quite a long way (probably further than is possible) towards the rational side, while at the same time ensuring that the experts are doing as much as possible to make the right solutions effective and have some understanding to allow them to meet the individuals part way. That’s probably a circle that can never be made fully square. Nevertheless the experts have to work their socks off to square the circle as best they can, and take the people with them in supporting their solutions. And that ain’t ever going to be easy.

[1] “When it comes to coronavirus, we shouldn’t let our feelings trump the facts”; 26 February 2020; https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/26/coronavirus-feelings-facts-face-masks-covid-19

[2] “You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus”; 24 February 2020; https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

[3] “Uncertainty in a Time of Coronavirus”; 26 February 2020; https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/uncertainty-in-a-time-of-coronavirus/

[4] “The New Coronavirus Is a Truly Modern Epidemic” 3 February 2020; https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/02/coronavirus-very-2020-epidemic/605941/

[5] “Basic reproduction number”; 27 February 2020; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

[6] “Coronavirus in a war zone: Afghanistan braces for outbreak after first case”; 26 February 2020; https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/feb/26/coronavirus-in-a-war-zone-afghanistan-braces-for-outbreak-after-first-case

current affairs

Welcome!

Welcome everyone in the UK to the world’s newest third world country

So you think Britain isn’t a third world country?
Outside the EU it will be about as important as Tristan da Cunha.

Gawdelpus!

amusements, current affairs, personal, ramblings

Predictions for 2020

Once again this year I’ve retrieved my crystal ball from the back of the wardrobe and dusted it off. However it becomes cloudier by the day so despite regular consultations over the last month what follows are my guesses at what may happen during 2020.

As before, I’ve divided the predictions into sections: UK, World and Personal. I figured that Brexit is now so likely to happen that it is “business as usual” and doesn’t warrant its own section. Note also that various items are currently redacted (although I have them documented) as some might consider them over-sensitive.

Disclaimer. I remind you that these are just my ideas of what could happen; they’re based solely on hunches and gut feel; I have no inside knowledge, I haven’t been studying the form, and I have a success rate of about 20%. So if you base any decision on any of this I will take no responsibility for your wanton act of idiocy or its consequences.

UK

  1. Look out for natural disasters around 9-10/02 (snow), 9-10/03, 7-8/04 (very wet Easter), 6-7/05 (financial crash) (all of these dates are moon at perigee and full).
    Also 30-31/10 (plane crash) (moon is at apogee, full and a Blue Moon).
  2. Penumbral lunar eclipse (visible in London) 10/01, 05/06, 05/07, 30/11 may also presage problems.
  3. UK leaves EU on 31/01: UK will not request a further extension and anyway the EU wouldn’t grant it.
    Leave deal will be unsatisfactory (basically the deal of 10/2019, passed due to Tory majority in the new parliament) containing many Henry VIII clauses (many of which will be abused before YE).
  4. Government cannot agree a trade deal with EU by YE.
    If the EU proposes an extension beyond YE 2020 the UK government will refuse it, thus cementing a total “no deal” Brexit.
  5. Boris Johnson continues to believe in unicorns and will ride out the economic turmoil following Brexit.
  6. Corbin is replaced as Labour Leader by a woman; possibly one of Yvette Cooper, Stella Creasy, Angela Eagle, Angela Rayner. (Predicted before the runners and riders are declared.)
  7. Despite attempts by UK and Ireland, the parties in Ulster are unable to agree a power sharing administration.
  8. There’s a move to reunite Ireland as the post-Brexit border is unworkable.
    This could stimulate Sinn Féin take their seats at Westminster to try to push through the reunification.
  9. Scotland is denied an independence referendum in 2020 by Westminster and fails to get a Supreme Court ruling in it’s favour.
    The SNP will build resentment against Westminster in order to win elections (and maybe a referendum) in 2021/22.
  10. Increasing calls for reform of electoral system (to some form of proportional representation) but they’re continually blocked by the government who implement boundary changes to cement their position.
  11. HS2 gets the go-ahead and a feasibility study into extensions to Edinburgh/Glasgow and Cardiff.
  12. Fracking is allowed to restart.
  13. Sadiq Khan wins a second term as London Mayor – but only just.
  14. Nigel Farage gets a peerage; John Bercow, Kenneth Clarke and Dominic Grieve do not.
  15. Appointees to the Supreme Court (eg. the replacement for Lady Hale) are seen as being clearly political appointees, rather than appropriate legals.
  16. Because of the economic turmoil the UK is in recession by YE.
    Unemployment hits 10%.
    Bank of England Interest Rate returns to 0%.
  17. Sterling plummets against dollar and Euro following the UK’s exit from the EU.
  18. Inflation rises to at least 10% by YE, mainly due to large cost increases in the food industry and hospitality sector.
  19. FTSE falls 10% cf. start of year – due to Brexit and the financial crash.
  20. Financial crash, probably in early May, with the possibility that a bank will fail.
  21. S&P and/or Moody’s downgrade UK creditworthiness by two levels.
  22. Mortgage interest rates hit 10% before YE.
    Average UK house prices fall by at least 10%.
    Repossessions double.
  23. Pensions (private & state) are compulsorily frozen.
  24. Drug prices double as the US buys up the NHS.
    Prescription charges are extended to everyone with no exemptions.
  25. Either ASDA or Morrison’s fails or is taken over; Debenhams finally fails.
    Major problems for M&S and/or John Lewis – a partnership between the two looks likely.
  26. Major drug/alcohol or fraud/fixing issue uncovered in one or more of UK athletics, rugby, cricket.
  27. Extinction Rebellion fizzles out.
  28. Diane Abbott and Theresa May are diagnosed with long-term illnesses.
  29. Magnitude 4 or greater earthquake somewhere in UK.
  30. At least 200 deaths in illegal migration attempts to the UK.
  31. Plans announced to replace the Thames Barrier; work to start 2025 and complete 2040.
  32. Announcement that London congestion charge zone will be expanded out to N & S Circulars in 2025/6.
  33. Relatively mild wet January/February followed by a cold wet spring & summer thus ensuring a poor fruit and grain harvest.
  34. Death of the Queen and Prince Philip.
    Possibly also Prince Charles, in an accident.
    William becomes King by YE.
  35. Other Deaths: Edwina Currey, Gordon Brown, a royal duke, Kenneth Clarke, Jeffrey Archer, Dennis Skinner, Lord Heseltine, Lord Gowrie.

World

  1. Trump wins 2020 Presidential election due to Democrat dissent over their candidate.
  2. Saudi Arabia drastically cuts oil exports amid internecine turmoil.
  3. Zimbabwe finally succumbs to outright civil war which spills over into South Africa.
  4. South American countries descend further into right-wing government.
  5. Rate of Amazonian deforestation increases.
    Global temperature and CO2 emissions continue to rise.
    The COP26 climate talks in Glasgow (in November) end in disagreement and failure.
  6. Major violence (civil war?) in Turkey.
  7. Violent uprising continues in Hong Kong and India.
  8. Russia annexes one of the Baltic states.
  9. Big solar geomagnetic storm causes major breakdown of satellites and infrastructure, probably across North America but possibly elsewhere.
  10. Collision between two operational satellites (maybe as a result of geomagnetic storm).
  11. Boeing Starliner and Space X Crew Dragon both launch crewed capsules.
    One of them fails with loss of the crew.
  12. At least one other major space mission fails.
  13. Magnitude 7 or greater earthquake in California and another in Peru.
  14. Greta Thunberg is burnt out and sinks out of sight to complete her education.
  15. At least one major global IT company fails (or is saved only by a takeover).
    Also a major airline and a shipping line.
  16. Major plane crash in western Europe – possibly France – possibly controlled flight into terrain.
  17. Ebola flares again in central Africa.
  18. Significant new disease emerges (as MERS and SARS did); concern at possible pandemic.
  19. Number of western countries ban vaping or include it in their anti-smoking regulations.
  20. Amazon and/or Facebook is involved in a major anti-trust or privacy law suit.
  21. Deaths: Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Dalai Lama, Angela Merkel, Bill Gates, Rupert Murdoch.

Personal

  1. Personal (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
  2. Neighbours1 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
  3. Neighbours2: [[REDACTED]]
  4. Neighbours3: [[REDACTED]]
  5. Local Community1 (a), (b), (c): [[REDACTED]]
  6. Local Community2 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
  7. Local Community3: [[REDACTED]]
  8. Friends1 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
  9. Friends2 (a), (b), (c): [[REDACTED]]
  10. Friends3: [[REDACTED]]
  11. Friends4 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
  12. Friends5 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
  13. Friends6: [[REDACTED]]
  14. Friends7: [[REDACTED]]
  15. Deaths: 11 named individuals [[REDACTED]]

These have all been redacted as the content is bound to be sensitive to people I know, however they are documented in my files and will be reported on at the end of the year.

Obviously I shall keep a tally and will publish the results at the end of the year. Let’s hope I do better this year than I have over the last several?

I’m conscious that much of the above will be in people’s “bad news” category. So this year I intend to also log good news stories. Good news is, of course, a rather flexible concept as it depends on one’s values of “Good” and “News”. The stories I log will therefore be ones which meet or exceed my personal, flexible and arbitrary values of Good and News. Hopefully there’ll be a list at the end of the year.

amusements, current affairs, personal, ramblings

Predictions for 2019: The Results

This time last year I made a series of predictions about what would happen during 2019. So what did I get right, and what wrong?
[Some of the items remain redacted to protect the sensitive and innocent.]

UK (Brexit)

Most of these predictions stand or fall on the outcome of the first two.

  1. Despite all the clamour, there will not be a second referendum on Brexit, and even if there is the result will still be Leave. CORRECT
  2. Parliament will not be able to agree the negotiated deal so Britain leaves the EU on 29 March with no deal, no fall-back plan, and no “implementation period”. WRONG as Brexit was delayed, twice.
  3. All trade stops as it is discovered that WTO rules cannot be applied instantly and easily. Resolution takes at least 3 months. WRONG.
  4. A hard border has to be implemented in Ireland almost overnight and is accomplished only by using troops. WRONG.
  5. There’s surprise that airlines cannot fly in/out of UK, and this badly affects food/medicine supply. WRONG.
  6. There are delays of up to a week (ie. that’s how long trucks have to queue) to get goods in/out to Europe via the seaports. Troops are required to manage the flow of trucks. WRONG.
  7. UK economy is in recession by mid-year. WRONG; although it was close towards the latter part of the year.
  8. Food and medicine supply issues are biting hard by end April as stocks run low and imports are almost impossible. There won’t be rationing but there will be significantly empty supermarket shelves. WRONG.
  9. There’s no insulin available by end May. Lack of insulin and other diabetes drugs results in 5K excess deaths during the year and another 5K avoided only due to an increased rate of amputations. The NHS estimate that a further 50K have unnecessary adverse events. WRONG.
  10. Due to import issues prices rise sharply and inflation hits 20% but stabilises to 5% by year-end. WRONG; inflation fell to 1.5% in November.
  11. Bank base rate is reduced to 0% as the banking sector is unable to do business/make money. Most savings rates are 0% while the mortgage rate rises to at least 10% resulting in an increase of repossessions. WRONG.
  12. House prices fall by 20-30%. WRONG; in October (latest data available) year-on-year house prices were up 0.8%.
  13. At some point during the year £1 will be worth no more than $0.90, and €0.90 (although not necessarily at the same time). CORRECT (just!); in July we got to £1=€0.85 at some UK airports.
  14. Moody’s downrate UK credit rating by at least two notches. WRONG; to my surprise.
  15. Despite this the FTSE100 ends the year up 10%. CORRECT; FTSE100 was up just over 12% at close on 31/12.

UK (Other)

  1. This is a year of trouble, unrest and pigeons coming home to roost – not all caused by Brexit but often due to incompetence and/or poor planning. Good news is in very short supply. CORRECT; see inter alia school kids striking for climate change, Extinction Rebellion, and many demonstrations about Brexit.
  2. Theresa May resigns as PM, possibly due to ill health. CORRECT.
  3. Andrea Leadsom becomes PM and appoints Jacob Rees-Mogg as Chancellor, with Boris Johnson as Deputy PM. WRONG.
  4. Ulster sectarian troubles boil over again; multiple shootings / bombings by both sides. CORRECT; but not as much as I feared.
  5. Labour Party adopts an official policy to re-unify Ireland. WRONG.
  6. TfL is declared bankrupt, causing chaos for London travellers. The government refuses to provide a bail-out. This results in many redundancies, pruned services and upgrade projects, and protracted strike action. WRONG.
  7. Work on Crossrail is paused, and the opening delayed to 2021. The Emirates Dangleway will close. Crossrail 2 is postponed by at least 3 years. CORRECT about Crossrail which will not now open until “sometime in 2021”. WRONG about the Dangleway. No good clues about Crossrail 2.
  8. HS2 is cut back due to lack of funding. Heathrow Third Runway is also delayed due to lack of money. Hinkley C nuclear power station development is cancelled. CORRECT about Heathrow Runway 3 which will be delayed from 2026 to maybe as late as 2029. WRONG about HS2 and Hinkley Point C.
  9. There’s a murder on my street. WRONG.
  10. The Sussex’s baby [REDACTED] will be named Diana or Iris (if a girl); Robert or David (if a boy). WRONG.
  11. A reintroduced wolf or lynx kills a human. WRONG.
  12. Beavers are found to be colonising the upper reaches of the Thames basin. No-one knows (or will admit to) how they got there. WRONG.
  13. A feral big cat (probably lynx or puma) is conclusively confirmed somewhere in the UK; it may be captured or shot to confirm the identification. WRONG; there were the usual purported sightings but no conclusive evidence.
  14. Major terrorist attack somewhere in UK (probably London) kills 50 including a high profile politician or minor royal. PARTLY CORRECT; the major UK incident seems to have been the London Bridge attack with two, plus attacker, dead.
  15. The country lurches even further towards pervasive surveillance and a police state with troops, and openly armed police, regularly on the streets in major conurbations. WRONG.
  16. At least one train crash and one plane crash; each with 20 dead. WRONG.
  17. A rail franchise will fail and have to be taken back into public ownership. WRONG.
  18. A major hospital (in England) fails and closes unexpectedly. WRONG.
  19. At least three major companies (possibly including a bank/building society and a supermarket) fail; 1000 job losses each. CORRECT: Patisserie Valerie, Jamie Oliver’s restaurants, Thomas Cook, Wrightbus, Mothercare.
  20. Deaths: Bill Turnbull, Tariq Ali, George Monbiot, David Jason, Derek Jacobi, Richard Branson, Leslie Phillips, Prince Philip, another Royal Duke/Prince. WRONG on all counts.

World

  1. Anthropologists discover that an isolated tribe (probably in Africa; possibly pygmies) is not Homo sapiens but another hominin species. WRONG.
  2. DNA recovered from ancient hominin teeth totally changes our current understanding of human evolution. WRONG; although with the apparent discovery that people were in Australia much earlier than thought this might have been quite close.
  3. Astronomers identify another extra-solar system “asteroid” visitor (like ‘Oumuamua) and prove this one is an alien spacecraft, although it appears to be dead. PARTLY CORRECT; another alien visitor has been found but it’s an asteroid.
  4. The upgraded LIGO experiment fails to reproduce its previous detection of gravitational waves, throwing whole areas of physics into turmoil. WRONG.
  5. There will be significant damage to ISS which forces its abandonment and a long pause in manned space-flight. WRONG.
  6. Donald Trump is confirmed to be suffering from a mild form of dementia, but is ruled as still fit to govern. WRONG.
  7. CO2 emissions rise by at least 5% year-on-year in US, India and China. INCONCLUSIVE; although China was reported to be 4% up in 1H2019, there’s too little easily available data to judge.
  8. In a petulant move, Russia cuts off gas supply to Europe for at least three months. WRONG.
  9. The global average temperature for the year is at least 1°C above the long-term average. PARTLY CORRECT and it’s going to be very close; YtD data for November shows land+ocean temperature 0.94°C above the long-term average; land only 1.39°C; ocean only 0.77°C.
  10. There’s a disease pandemic – cause currently unknown, but not flu, Ebola or Zika. WRONG.
  11. There’s an outbreak of Ebola in South America; plus 6 cases in UK, not all imported. WRONG; just more Ebola in Africa.
  12. Major terrorist attacks in western world: 1 in USA and 2 in other places; combined deaths 250. PARTLY CORRECT; several attacks, most notably New Zealand with 51 deaths, El Paso, Texas 22 dead.
  13. More die in mass shootings in USA this year than in 2018. CORRECT; according to Wikipedia 486 deaths in 2019 cf. 387 in 2018.
  14. Saudi Arabia annexes one or more of UAE, Dubai, Kuwait. WRONG.
  15. A Chinese warship fires at a US Navy vessel in the South China Sea; this may be the start of a US/China war in the area. WRONG.
  16. MH370 is found by accident in waters between Australia, Papua New Guinea and East Timor. One of the black boxes is recovered. WRONG.
  17. At least one round the world sailor is lost at sea and never found (although the deserted yacht is found). WRONG.
  18. There are three major transport accidents (plane/train/cruise liner/ferry) each with 100 deaths. PARTLY CORRECT; Ethiopian airliner crash with 157 dead, Iraqi ferry with about 100 dead, Pakistan train crash with 73+ dead; plus an Aeroflot plane crash (41 dead), Cairo train fire (25 dead), Chilean plane crash (38 dead).
  19. There’s a major earthquake (around magnitude 8) along the Himalayas which causes widespread destruction in Tibet, Nepal and Bhutan with thousands of deaths. As a result the summit of Mt Everest is 1m lower. WRONG.
  20. Deaths: Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Robert Mugabe, Pope Emeritus Benedict, Elon Musk, a major European politician. CORRECT about Mugabe. WRONG about the rest.

Personal

  1. In family history, I finally unlock the brick wall in my Marshall line in mid-18th century, although I then get stuck at about 1700. WRONG.
  2. Family. [REDACTED] PARTLY CORRECT.
  3. Personal. I’m diagnosed with BPH (possibly low grade cancer) but surgery not required. WRONG.
  4. Doctors. [REDACTED] CORRECT on one item. WRONG about the other two.
  5. Friends 1. [REDACTED] WRONG.
  6. Friends 2. [REDACTED] WRONG about the first part. CORRECT about the second part.
  7. Friends 3. [REDACTED] WRONG.
  8. Friends 4. [REDACTED] WRONG.
  9. My total lottery winnings for the year are less than £50. WRONG, but still less than £200.
  10. Deaths. [REDACTED] WRONG; of 14 people listed, two died in 2018 (unknown to me when making the predictions) and the other 12 are still on life as far as I am aware.

That is an absolutely pathetic hit rate for which I deserve to be sacked – lucky I’m not a football manager!

Tomorrow I’ll post my predictions for 2020. Watch this space.

amusements, current affairs

Passing Thought on Our Time

Just this passing thought on our time (with apologies to the Oldham Tinkers).

At Parliament it used to good,
To see them think of country’s good,
But now the game has changed, tha’ll see,
They can’t talk truthful on TV.

Boris Johnson is a cunt,
Boris Johnson is a cunt,
Eee, aye, addie,
Boris Johnson is a cunt.

current affairs

And they still don’t get it!

Why can no-one get their heads round what is actually the position on Brexit?

This from an article in yesterday’s Guardian:

… the UK leaving without a deal on 31 October. In practice, this can only happen if the EU turns down the UK’s request for an article 50 extension or Johnson breaks the law by ignoring parliament.

So far, so good. But then in the next sentence on the government’s publicity campaign:

… UK’s October no deal exit, as well as being factually incorrect (as it addresses an event which cannot now occur) …

Which directly contradicts the previous statement.

In fact the first statement is the correct one, as outlined in the Law & Lawyers blog. Following the last minute action in Parliament which resulted in the European Union (Withdrawal) (No 2) Act 2019 there are three situations which (legally) can now occur:

  1. EU agrees extension to 31 January 2020: PM must accept
  2. EU agrees extension to a date other than 31 January 2020: PM must accept
  3. EU refuses an extension: the Act does not address this situation; thus by operation of EU law, the UK would leave without a deal on 31 October 2019.

So the first statement in the Guardian article is the correct one. There are two instances when the UK will leave the EU on 31 October with no deal:

  1. if the EU decline a further extension, or
  2. the UK government break the law (as enshrined in the European Union (Withdrawal) (No 2) Act 2019) and fail to request an extension.

And yet people now believe that leaving with no-deal on 31 October is not now possible.

Logic? What logic?

current affairs, thoughts

They Don’t Get It

I’ve been working up to writing this for some while; today I’ve been pushed over the edge.

So when will MPs, and others, wake up?

While I agree with Lord Heseltine that imposing a No-Deal Brexit is an attack (“intolerable” was the adjective he used) on democracy, Parliament cannot block No-Deal just by saying they don’t want it – in fact they did this months ago. And Caroline Lucas calling for an emergency female cabinet to block No-Deal, is, frankly, pissing into the wind.

My understanding (which may not be complete) is that there are only two ways in which Parliament can prevent a No-Deal Brexit:

(1) By passing a motion agreeing to, and instructing the executive to ratify, the deal which is currently on the table.

or

(2) By passing a motion instructing the executive to cancel the Article 50 declaration.

Even so they could be ignored, but at the cost of an even bigger constitutional crisis.

The clock is ticking inexorably towards 31 October. Parliament and the Executive have effectively run out of time to do anything. So unless the Government come up with something radically new and (as a minimum) get the EU to agree to a further postponement of the leave date (all very unlikely in my estimation), then the UK will crash out of the EU on 31 October – no deal, no backstop, a hard border with Ireland, no transition period, no proper preparation, no international trade for months … and no international standing because having faffed around at nothing for three years who would trust us?

All of that can be averted by Parliament only by one of the above two actions. They can talk all they like, but they’re powerless to stop No-Deal otherwise.

When will they wake up?

Gawdelpus!

beliefs, current affairs, personal, thoughts

On Protest

A few days ago one of our favourite Zen masters, Brad Warner, wrote a blog post under the title What You Don’t Speak Out Against You Co-sign? He was responding to a comment that “what you don’t speak out against you co-sign” and taking him to task for not openly campaigning against Donald Trump and all that he stands for. Needless to say Brad disagreed, as I do too.

Let’s start off being clear. “What you don’t speak out against you co-sign” means “If you don’t speak out against something then you are supporting, aiding, facilitating, even encouraging it”.

As Brad says, this is a very common way of thinking. It goes along with the “if good men do nothing …” trope. But it isn’t true and it is (designed to be) divisive and create factions. It is nothing short of moral blackmail.

Many people see their target as some variant of evil. So if you don’t campaign, demonstrate or protest against Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, Brexit, pervasive CCTV, fossil fuels, or whatever, then you condone them and you are the work of the Devil. Not so.

In Brad’s words:

If someone characterizes you as evil, do you want to be friends with them? Do you want to support the things they support? Do you want to listen to their reasons for calling you evil? Or are you more likely to say, “Well screw you!” and deliberately support whatever it is they’re against?
… …
The stance that [such people] are taking will only drive more people to support the [cause] they hate.

So their efforts become a self-denying ordinance.

Also implicit in this is (a) that there is one right and one wrong answer, and (b) that there is only one way to protest. Some must choose to refrain from joining in with the noise everyone else is making. Protesting noisily is seldom effective. In general, protests and petitions work only to reinforce the determination to do whatever is being protested against. They may convince those who are already of like mind to join your bandwagon, but to many, like me, they are annoying and pointless – even if I agree with the sentiments.

Don’t get me wrong. I object just as strongly to the same things (see list above) as anyone else. But I choose not be be mouthy about it or jump on bandwagons. Like Brad I am not skilled in political rhetoric, and whatever I might wish to say has already been said a thousand times over by those more skilled (and likely more knowledgeable) than me. So I would largely be wasting my breath.

Everything goes through cycles and fashions; always has, always will. Ultimately “we are where we are” and “what will happen will happen” – although by “right action” we can indeed hope to affect the outcomes. But what is “right action” for you may not be so for me.

Essentially it doesn’t matter what I say. Brexit will happen or it won’t happen. North Korea will blow us all sky high, or it won’t. Rinse and repeat, with your cause du jour.

That’s not to say that we shouldn’t speak out about things we fundamentally disagree with, but there won’t be thousands not speaking out because I keep quiet: there is already plenty of discussion and debate. Your mileage may vary.

Like Brad, I believe there is a better way, at least for me. First of all staying silent (or maybe just quieter) helps protect my sanity – something which is precarious enough for most of us at the best of times. The Dalai Lama always talks about compassion, and self-care is only having compassion for oneself. Without self-compassion and self-care you are not able, and not there, to show compassion for others.

Keeping silent has other benefits too. It provides quiet space where other topics, perhaps of more immediate personal importance or urgency, can be discussed. And, when appropriate, it also allows controversialists and facilitators (as I like to think I am) help others see the wood for the trees and take an appropriately thoughtful and nuanced approach, rather than jumping on some blinkered, raucous bandwagon.

There’s more than one way to stop the crocodile running off with the sausages.

For another perspective on this see Silent Protests Are Still Protests.

current affairs, history, thoughts, topographical

Notre Dame de Paris

Devastating though it is, Vulcan failed in his mission to reduce Notre Dame de Paris to a pile of ash and rubble. I enjoy watching disasters like this, and plane crashes, not from a a sense of morbid curiosity but from a forensic and analytical perspective; I’m curious about the how, why, what was the cause, and what next.

While one hates to see any medieval, historic, and important building – let alone a church – reduced as it has been, it is equally irritating to see Vulcan not finish the job! The Brigade des sapeurs-pompiers de Paris did an heroic job, against all the odds, and won. But let’s be honest, this fire is a grand calamity for the cathedral, for France, and for the French. And it is a truly sorry sight.

It could easily have been so much worse. As one Parisian official has said there was a critical 15-30 minutes, which I presume is referring to the time when the flames reached the NW and SW towers but was contained before it took hold there. If either tower had gone up in flames all bets were off as those towers contain the bells which would almost certainly have fallen, destroying masonry and probably bringing down a large amount of the stone structure if only through a domino effect.

The French government has committed to rebuild the cathedral and somewhere around €1bn of private money has already been pledged to help finance this. Such is the understandable, predictable, knee-jerk reaction. But should Notre Dame be rebuilt? I suggest that maybe it shouldn’t – and not just because of the horrendous cost.

Clearly the remaining structure has to be made safe. After that why not conserve what remains to preserve the medieval splendour. Then do something modern (but, of course this being France, tasteful) which will commemorate the fire as a remarkable event in the cathedral’s history and the heroic efforts of les pompiers. Why not install a transparent (glass, probably) roof so that light (the light of God?) continues to shine through the holes in the stone vaulting emphasising what very nearly didn’t survive. After all the photographic record, and existing skills, are so good that there is little to be gained from remaking the lost parts. Well at least that’s what I would be tempted to do.

I’ve been to Notre Dame twice, and I didn’t like it. It didn’t just leave me cold, I had a feeling of the sinister, even evil, there – and that’s unusual for me in a church (despite my lack of belief). So from an totally personal perspective I would not have been too distraught had the whole building been destroyed. But that’s not to be (at least yet) and a major rebuild of some form will happen. Which is probably as it should be.