Category Archives: ramblings

Advent Announcement

Marvin, The Paranoid AndroidToday is the first Sunday in Advent, so it’s that time when I, like many others, would normally be running an Advent Calendar of blog posts. And then for a few days either side of New Year have a series of posts summarising the year past and looking forward to the year to come.

However I’ve decided that this year I’m going to do none of that. I just don’t have the stomach for it this year, and cannot make myself invest the time in something I see as increasingly pointless. What price predictions in this increasingly dystopian world? I’ve also struggled to find a suitable and interesting subject for an Advent Calendar – at least in terms of something that sufficiently captivates me and which is not hemmed in with copyright etc. restrictions.

At the end of the day that’s probably all down to depression, and having the brain frazzled by recent illness.

Life! Don’t talk to me about Life!

Nonetheless my monthly posts are planned to continue through next year. So you’ll still have regular quiz questions, quotes, links to interesting items and my unblogged month. In addition, next year I’m adding, on a single (variable) day each month, an “On This Day” post for 100 years ago – yes, just one day a month something from 1923 that happened on that day.

So, sorry, but whatever the reason, the brain isn’t going to hack it all this year. Hopefully at least the Advent Calendar will return next year.

Rugby League

During October, while I’ve been ill, I’ve been watching some of the Rugby League World Cup on TV.

I cannot understand the game or its attraction.

Think upon it thus-wise …

  • It’s a game with effectively no competition and no invention.
  • The only tactic seems to be to get the ball and run straight at the nearest three opponents, so they can throw you to the ground.
  • The set plays are all uncontested: the play-the-ball, the scrums, the restart from the ball in touch – you know the outcome in advance.
  • The scrums, as they are defined as uncontested, are pointless – you might as well just give someone the ball and say “Go”.
  • Meaningful penalties are almost non-existent; the vast majority of penalties are effectively no different to the play-the-ball.
  • The opposition only get the ball when you make an error, not by competing for it.
  • Players (and referees) are unable to play without a continual supply of water, with extraneous bodies wandering on and off the pitch to fulfil this need.
  • The referee spends half the time running backwards.
  • Referees seem unable to make decisions – so many of the decisions, especially tries, are referred to the video referee for a decision.

The game is totally sterile and pointless.

And then they try playing it in wheelchairs!

Compare with Rugby Union, where the scrums and line-outs are properly contested; penalties mean something; the tackled player-with-ball sets up ruck and maul which become a contest for the ball; and much more invention in passing and kicking flows from this.

I just cannot see why Rugby League even exists, let alone why anyone would want to play it.

What I Did Done

Sometime in early August, Emma Beddington wrote an article in the Guardian under the title Ignore those lists of goals to hit by age 30 – here’s what you should have done by 47.

Well I’m a bit past worrying about either 30 or 47, but it did get me thinking. I wonder what achievements and landmarks I managed in each decade of my life so far? Well here’s a list. It’s all a bit frightening really, when written down like this …


0 to 10

  • Entered the world and was healthy
  • Learnt to read, write, do arithmetic
  • Learnt to ride a bike
  • Learnt to swim
  • Introduced to nudism
  • Introduced to lightweight camping

10 to 20

  • Passed 11+
  • Sung in school choir (including Messiah, Benjamin Britten’s St Nicholas, and HMS Pinafore; also at St Paul’s Cathedral)
  • Scout troop leader
  • Visited the Lake District with school (twice), and Scotland with scouts (twice)
  • School prize for A-levels
  • Went to university to study chemistry
  • Learnt computer programming
  • Played cricket and hockey for school & university
  • Treasurer, and briefly Chairman, of university radio station
  • Broken engagement

20 to 30

  • Somehow got a BA, MSc & PhD
  • Representative on various staff/student committees & similar
  • Resident Tutor
  • Met Prof. Sir George Porter (Nobel Laureate) at Royal Institution
  • Converted to Catholicism and lapsed
  • 3rd XI club cricket captain
  • Learnt to umpire cricket, properly (but never bothered to take the exams)
  • Met my handful of most influential friends
  • Unemployed for 3 months
  • Permanent job (at IBM)
  • School governor
  • Organised a tour for my cricket club
  • Finally moved away from home
  • Got my own rented flat
  • Appendix removed and a summer off work
  • Married

30 to 40

  • Bought the house
  • Got our first cats
  • Organised a tour for a different cricket club
  • Had a summer off work with glandular fever
  • Had an affair

40 to 50


50 to 60

  • Father died
  • Started this blog
  • Retired (from IBM)
  • Silver wedding
  • Conducted the funeral of a friend; gave the eulogy at her husband’s funeral two years later
  • Got a piercing (don’t ask, TMIA)
  • Visited USA
  • Ran five Anthony Powell international conferences
  • Had Sunday Lunch at the Ritz
  • Visited Eton College; and Balliol College, Oxford
  • Met Ian Rankin and Tariq Ali
  • Attended the Service of the Most Noble Order of the Garter in St George’s Chapel, Windsor
  • Diagnosed with Obstructive Sleep Apnoea and Type 2 Diabetes

60 to 70

  • Mother died
  • Became a state registered geriatric
  • Met the Earl of Gowrie; and Lady Antonia Fraser
  • Ran another four Anthony Powell international conferences
  • Had formal dinner (and informal lunch) in Masters Common Room of Eton College
  • Stood down as Secretary & Trustee of Anthony Powell Society after 18 years
  • Involved in founding GP’s patient group; appointed Chairman
  • Published (privately) a book of photographs
  • Bilateral knee replacements
  • Ruby Wedding
  • Attended Buckingham Palace Garden Party

Over 70

  • Appointed to my local council’s Community Review Panel

That includes a number of things I never dreamt I’d do, like visiting Eton College (and drinking their champagne); meeting an Earl who was also a former Cabinet minister; dining at the Ritz; attending a Buckingham Palace Garden Party.

So even if I exclude the things we all do – like reading, writing and losing parents – that’s still a somewhat mind-boggling list for a mediocre grammar school boy!

However I don’t really feel it is exceptional. Mostly because I’ve drifted; I’ve gone where the wind took me; none of this was a pre-planned long-term objective, because I’ve never had a life (or career) plan. I’ve done what was there at the time. If you’d asked me at 11, 18, or even 21, I couldn’t have predicted any of this (except the very obvious). And I find that somewhat scary.

Interesting Times

As I said yesterday, we do live in interesting times. In the last 5-and-a-bit years we’ve seen …

In the UK

  • Three Prime Ministers: Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss
  • Two General Elections in 2017 and 2019
  • 2016 to 2020: just how are we going to leave the EU?
  • June 2017: Grenfell Tower fire
  • May 2018: Royal wedding of Harry & Megan
  • Prince Harry & Megan relinquish royal duties and abscond to California
  • January 2020: finally leave the EU
  • March 2020 to date: SARS-CoV-2 and Covid-19 (in UK) including lockdowns, an over-stressed NHS etc.
  • March 2021: census
  • April 2021: death of Duke of Edinburgh
  • Late 2021 to date: seriously escalating energy prices
  • February 2022: Queen’s Platinum Jubilee
  • February 2022 to date: discovery of polio in London’s sewage
  • May 2022 to date: monkeypox
  • September 2022: death of Queen Elizabeth II and accession of King Charles III

Worldwide

  • Three Presidents of the USA: Barak Obama, Donald Trump, Joe Biden
  • October 2017: ‘Oumuamua, the first known interstellar object, identified
  • November 2018: Gilets Jaunes protests in France
  • April 2019: fire almost destroys Notre Dame
  • May 2019: Naruhito becomes Emperor of Japan on the unprecedented abdication of his father Emperor Akihito (who had ruled for 30 years)
  • December 2019: US President, Donald Trump, is impeached
  • January 2021: US President, Donald Trump, is impeached for a second time
  • March 2021: container ship Ever Given blocks Suez Canal for a week, causing massive disruption to trade routes
  • December 2021 to January 2022: eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai volcanic island in Tonga, currently the largest eruption of 21st century
  • 2022: attempted invasion of Ukraine by Russia and resultant war

That’s what I can remember. And we haven’t even mentioned climate change, or a rash of celebs being arraigned for sexual abuse!

I challenge anyone to find me a more “interesting” 5 years, excepting around WWI and WWII.

Interesting times, indeed.

More Covid Stupidity?

So our pathetic government appear to have decided that all Covid-19 restrictions will be removed in two weeks time, as part of the plan to save Boris’s skin. Basically they seem to be saying that Covid is over, the case numbers are falling rapidly, there’s no longer any need to isolate, and we can all go back to normal. [1,2] Essentially this says “we don’t care; go back to normal; if you get Covid well tough luck, but it is now only a cold so continue going to work and spreading the disease further”.

Let’s look at this.

  1. Of course the government reported case numbers are falling; they’re designed to. People are being urged to go back to work, and testing is not being pushed. There is now no requirement to get a confirmatory PCR test following a positive LFT; and there’s no requirement to log the result of a LFT; so testing has dropped off a cliff – people just aren’t bothering. So as the government reports only confirmed positive tests, of course their numbers are falling.
  2. However this does not accord with data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS; a government body) who do random sampling of the population. Nor does it agree with the data from the Zoe Covid Study, who track reports from their 4 million subscribers. [3,4,5] The Zoe study is showing rates still incredibly high at around 200K/day (as it was at the beginning of January) and the ONS data is tracking this fairly closely. That means around 1 in 25 people currently have Covid [5] and anything up to 10% of those are re-infections [3,5].

But it is worse than this …

  1. Going back to normal, means no testing and no isolation. So people will be walking around with Covid as they think they have a bad cold (or are even asymptomatic), they’ll keep travelling and going to work/school, and spreading infection. Many will be forced back to work as many employers won’t tolerate time off sick with a cold (which is in itself stupid, but part of the “work at all costs” ethic).
  2. More people walking about spreading infection means that the number of cases will rise, as will hospitalisations and deaths. And because there’s no testing the government won’t know, until hospitalisations, deaths or school absences start climbing out of control. But by then it is too late; the genie is out of the bottle. (Remember that hospitalisations and deaths lag behind infection by 2, 4 or even more weeks.)
  3. That in turn puts the vulnerable at even greater risk. And many vulnerable people (like me) are feeling even more that they’re condemned to “house arrest” because they dare not risk going out and getting infected.
  4. It also means more children off school, or having their education impacted because their teachers are sick.
  5. And the higher the rate of infection, the higher the number of cases of Long Covid which will severely impact the patient’s life for … well we don’t know how long!
  6. More infection also means the virus has even greater opportunities to mutate. That’s the way evolution works. These new variants may be less or more infectious, and/or cause more or less severe infection. And again we wouldn’t know, because there’s no testing.
  7. All this is compounded in that immunity wanes. We know that the good immunity provided following two vaccinations was falling off rapidly after 6 months [7]; hence the booster programme. But it does now seem that immunity provided by boosters falls off rapidly too, such that someone like me who had their booster in mid-October (17 weeks ago) now has almost no benefit from it [6]; I’m back where I was last June with a risk of around 4 times the norm [8] (and I’m by no means in the extra-super-mega-vulnerable range). We seem to be needing a new booster every 3 months or so, but there appears to be no plan for this – indeed the current booster programme has effectively stalled [3].
  8. According to the BBC “The law will be replaced with guidance … and for example people will be urged not to go to work if they have Covid” [2]. Frankly the government can provide as much guidance, urging and recommendation as it likes, but people are going to take little notice: they need to work and their employers aren’t going to tolerate high levels of absence.

Is it any wonder the vulnerable and the disabled are worried. They feel that the government doesn’t care about them and wants them out of sight and out of (their) mind. (From a personal perspective, friends are going to increasingly not understand of one’s avoidance of social gatherings etc.)

I have seen a number of respected scientists, including some members of Independent SAGE [9], suggesting that the government’s proposed action is nothing less than “criminal negligence”. We don’t know what is round the corner in terms of new variants, so they could well come back and bite us in the bum at any time. And when it does the consequences are going to be a direct result of yet further government failure.

Whether it is actually “criminally negligent” only a court could decide, but I would certainly class it as totally stupid and intensely unethical.


[1] Guardian; 09/02/2022; https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/09/covid-rules-axed-england-is-pandemic-end-really-in-sight
[2] BBC News; 09/02/2022; https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60319947
[3] Independent SAGE; 04/02/2022; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=21TKKKFfGYo
[4] Zoe Covid Update; 03/02/2022; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUfjJ1z-a6s
[5] Zoe Covid Update; 10/02/2022; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2Zm9OcULDs
[6] Telegraph; 24/12/2021; https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/24/fourth-jabs-possible-covid-booster-immunity-will-fall-millions/
[7] University of Edinburgh; 21/12/2021; https://www.ed.ac.uk/news/2021/covid-19-vaccine-protection-wanes-three-months
[8] QCovid Risk Calculator; https://qcovid.org/
[9] Independent SAGE; https://www.independentsage.org/

Predictions for 2022

Once again this year I’ve brought my crystal ball out of retirement and asked it, and my dowsing pendulum, to help me guess what may happen during 2022.

Prognostication has been difficult again this year because of all the continuing unknowns and variables. This is due in large part to the Covid-19 situation, but also the on-going fall-out from Brexit and a dysfunctional UK government.

As before, I’ve divided the predictions into sections: General, World, UK, and Personal. Various items are redacted (although I have them documented) as some might be especially sensitive.

Disclaimer. I remind you that these are just my ideas of what could happen; they’re based solely on hunches and gut feel; I have no inside knowledge, I haven’t been studying the form, and I have a success rate of about 20%. So if you base any decision on any of this I will take no responsibility for your wanton act of idiocy or its consequences.

General

  1. The first half of year is likely to be relatively quiet; but the second half could be turbulent.
  2. Watch out for travel delays and general buggeration during weeks 18-20, 34-38, 38-41 (possibly Covid related), 41.
  3. Also watch out for change around the time of eclipses, especially in areas where they are visible. This year we have:
    • 30/04: Partial Solar Eclipse visible in S Pacific, S America, Antarctica
    • 15-16/05: Total Lunar Eclipse visible in N America, S America, Antarctica, W Africa, SW Europe
    • 25/10: Partial Solar Eclipse visible in Europe, SW Asia, Arabia
    • 07-08/11: Total Lunar Eclipse visible in Arctic, Pacific, NE Russia, NW Canada
  4. There are Supermoons on 14/06 & 13/07. These should herald good news.

World

  1. A number of international treaties are likely to be broken in the second half of the year.
  2. There’s an international incident associated with the Winter Olympics; possibly involving the death of a competitor.
  3. There’s a Republican landslide in the US mid-term elections.
    This allows Trump to resurface as a serious contender for US Presidency in 2024.
  4. Macron is re-elected as French President, but by a small margin.
  5. Ukraine is reabsorbed into Russia despite international condemnation.
  6. There’s a military coup in Chile.
  7. Japan starts dumping the tritium contaminated water from the Fukushima nuclear site into sea – without telling anyone this has started; in fact it may have been happening for over a year.
  8. There are continuing, and aggressive, clampdowns on freedom of speech and protest across the world.
  9. At least one country votes to leave the EU.
  10. Three countries announce plans to go cash free by 2025.
  11. In good news, global wine production increases by at least 20%, mostly in the Southern Hemisphere.
  12. Covid-19 is here to stay.
    Another deadly Covid variant emerges just as Delta & Omicron are being defeated.
    Covid variants will start to be named in Hebrew or Chinese.
  13. The first “all flu” vaccine is available and it is combined in the Covid vaccine.
    It’s in Phase III trials this year, so won’t be available for a while yet.
  14. Nevertheless anti-vaxxers become more strident and aggressive as they gain increasing support.
    The number of unvaccinated (for all diseases) is causing major medical and public health issues.
  15. There’s a major infrastructure issue, probably affecting several countries, possibly due to a cyberattack or (more likely?) a large solar storm.
  16. At least one major space mission fails; maybe ISS or Ariane 6, or something else.
  17. There are several high impact astronomical/cosmological events; all due to things previously unknown science.
  18. There’s a major earthquake in the Himalayas.
  19. There’s a major volcanic eruption in Philippines, Papua New Guinea, or Iceland.
  20. This will be another hot and wet year, probably the hottest ever.
  21. Deaths: Dalai Lama, Nancy Pelosi, both Popes, George W Bush, Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter, Angela Merkel, Aung San Suu Kyi.

UK

  1. It is likely the men in grey suits will remove Boris as PM.
    However there’s no prospect of an early general election.
  2. Sinn Féin gain control of Stormont.
  3. Recovery is slower than expected as Covid doesn’t go away.
    GDP will increase by a maximum of 2% as a result.
  4. Road & rail infrastructure spend has to be significantly reduced due to economic shortfalls.
  5. Bank of England interest rate rises to between 1% and 2%.
    Mortgage rates increase significantly but savings rates remain stagnant.
  6. Fuel duty is reduced to stimulate recovery, but at the expense of relaxing “net zero” climate targets.
  7. The State Pension triple lock is removed permanently.
  8. Continuing supply chain problems due to the on-going effects of Brexit, Covid, lack of lorry drivers and a lack of key workers; there’s no resolution in sight and food shortages remain a possibility.
  9. Supply chain and interest rates drive an increase in inflation to between 5% and 10%.
    Meat, fish, fruit & veg all increase by 20% to 25% overall.
    Gas price rises by 50% compared with YE2021 – partly as a ploy to make people switch away from gas.
    Electricity prices rise by 25%.
  10. There is continuing disruption to movement of goods between Northern Ireland and the UK mainland.
    Consequently there’s continuing discord between UK and EU.
  11. The government continues to try to reform TfL and refuse further financial support.
    Bus and tube services are cut back.
  12. HS2 costs rise by at least 30%.
  13. Covid cases remain stubbornly high; averagely on-going 400 deaths/week and 100K cases/week.
    A major rise in Covid cases in January/February due to Omicron variant and Christmas/New Year super-spreader events.
    And another spike in September/October.
    Everyone will need another vaccine booster jab, probably starting in late Spring or early Summer.
  14. There’s further significant rationalisation in the supermarket sector.
  15. The government moves to further criminalise prostitution and recreational drugs.
  16. There may well be a significant event (possibly a disaster) somewhere in Thames Estuary roughly north of Westgate-on-Sea.
  17. Deaths: The Queen, Frank Field, Stephen Fry, George Alagiah, George Monbiot, Piers Corbyn, George Galloway, Dennis Skinner, Andrew Marr

Personal
Five items, including possible deaths redacted from here as the content is bound to be sensitive to people I know. However these items are documented in my files and will be tracked.


Obviously I shall try to keep track and will hope to publish the results at the end of the year. Let’s hope we have a better success rate this year and that the worst of the predictions don’t come to pass.


Things to Bring Joy

Over on her blog the other day my friend Katy said …

This morning I chanced upon a short thread on Twitter in which Emma Wayland writes a list of things she would gift to someone who was struggling and needed cheer.

… and asked us to say what would be on our list.

Maby TavelSo here are some immediate thoughts from me, in no particular order.

  • A box of Earl Grey tea (loose tea or bags).
  • Almost any of the Discworld novels by Terry Pratchett.
  • Bottle (or better a case) of Domaine Maby Tavel Rosé.
  • Part 1 of Bach’s Christmas Oratorio.
  • White chocolate Toblerone.
  • Hot crusty bread with lots of butter.
  • An hour on a summer’s day at Dungeness.
  • A large and stylish bouquet of top class flowers.
  • Warm purring cat.
  • Sitting nude in the garden in warm sunshine.
  • Adnams Dry Hopped Lager or Ghost Ship (preferably on draught).
  • A large measure (it’s usually called a bottle!) of Adnams Copper House Gin, with Schweppes Tonic.
  • Really good fish & chips.
  • A hot shower and a bed with crisp clean sheets.
  • A night of really good deep peaceful sleep.

Like Katy, I’ll ask what’s on your list?