This time last year I made a long series of predictions about what would happen during 2020. So what did I get right, and what wrong?
[Some of the items remain redacted to protect the sensitive and innocent.]
UK
- Look out for natural disasters around 9-10/02 (snow), 9-10/03, 7-8/04 (very wet Easter), 6-7/05 (financial crash) (all of these dates are moon at perigee and full). CORRECT for 9-10/02 with Storm Ciara bringing heavy rain and high winds, with snow in the north. CORRECT for 9-10/03 which was again very wet and windy. VOID for 6-7/05 as this was an erroneous date for moon at perigee.
Also 30-31/10 (plane crash) (moon is at apogee, full and a Blue Moon). WRONG - Penumbral lunar eclipse (visible in London) 10/01, 05/06, 05/07, 30/11 may also presage problems. CORRECT for 10/01 with the beginnings of the emergence of Covid-19. WRONG. for the other dates.
- UK leaves EU on 31/01: UK will not request a further extension and anyway the EU wouldn’t grant it. CORRECT
Leave deal will be unsatisfactory (basically the deal of 10/2019, passed due to Tory majority in the new parliament) containing many Henry VIII clauses (many of which will be abused before YE). CORRECT - Government cannot agree a trade deal with EU by YE. WRONG
If the EU proposes an extension beyond YE 2020 the UK government will refuse it, thus cementing a total “no deal” Brexit. CORRECT; no extension was offered; indeed the UK government indicated it didn’t want any extension. - Boris Johnson continues to believe in unicorns and will ride out the economic turmoil following Brexit. CORRECT so far.
- Corbin is replaced as Labour Leader by a woman; possibly one of Yvette Cooper, Stella Creasy, Angela Eagle, Angela Rayner. (Predicted before the runners and riders were declared.) CORRECT in that Corbin was replaced. However WRONG that the new leader would be female. Also WRONG that the named females would be in the final running for leader.
- Despite attempts by UK and Ireland, the parties in Ulster are unable to agree a power sharing administration. WRONG; a new administration was agreed in January.
- There’s a move to reunite Ireland as the post-Brexit border is unworkable. This could stimulate Sinn Féin take their seats at Westminster to try to push through the reunification. WRONG on all counts there.
- Scotland is denied an independence referendum in 2020 by Westminster and fails to get a Supreme Court ruling in it’s favour. CORRECT that BJ would deny Scotland another referendum.
The SNP will build resentment against Westminster in order to win elections (and maybe a referendum) in 2021/22. WRONG in that there is no major sign of SNP building discontent (more than normal). - Increasing calls for reform of electoral system (to some form of proportional representation) but they’re continually blocked by the government who implement boundary changes to cement their position. WRONG
- HS2 gets the go-ahead and a feasibility study into extensions to Edinburgh/Glasgow and Cardiff. CORRECT; HS2 was given the go-ahead in February, with a proposal to extend to Glasgow surfacing in June.
- Fracking is allowed to restart. WRONG; in fact Cuadrilla (who have the only UK fracking licence) have surrendered the fracking part of their licence.
- Sadiq Khan wins a second term as London Mayor – but only just. VOID as the elections have been postponed to 2021 due to Covid-19.
- Nigel Farage gets a peerage; John Bercow, Kenneth Clarke and Dominic Grieve do not. WRONG about Farage and Clarke. CORRECT about Bercow and Grieve.
- Appointees to the Supreme Court (eg. the replacement for Lady Hale) are seen as being clearly political appointees, rather than appropriate legals. WRONG as far as I am aware.
- Because of the economic turmoil the UK is in recession by YE. CORRECT; UK officially in recession by August, largely due to Covid-19.
Unemployment hits 10%. WRONG; September’s unemployment was just 4.8%.
Bank of England Interest Rate returns to 0%. WRONG; base rate was reduced but only to 0.1%. - Sterling plummets against dollar and Euro following the UK’s exit from the EU. CORRECT for Euro which fell from €1.18 to €1.11. WRONG for US Dollar which rose from $1.32 to $1.37.
- Inflation rises to at least 10% by YE, mainly due to large cost increases in the food industry and hospitality sector. WRONG
- FTSE falls 10% cf. start of year – due to Brexit and the financial crash. CORRECT; due to Brexit and Covid-19 the FTSE100 fell by 12.8% over the year.
- Financial crash, probably in early May, with the possibility that a bank will fail. WRONG
- S&P and/or Moody’s downgrade UK creditworthiness by two levels. WRONG
- Mortgage interest rates hit 10% before YE. WRONG
Average UK house prices fall by at least 10%. WRONG according to the ONS they increased by around 5%.
Repossessions double. WRONG; repossessions fell dramatically although there was a significant rise in home owners with serious payment arrears. - Pensions (private & state) are compulsorily frozen. WRONG
- Drug prices double as the US buys up the NHS. WRONG; if this has happened it’s been well hidden.
Prescription charges are extended to everyone with no exemptions. WRONG - Either ASDA or Morrison’s fails or is taken over. CORRECT; ASDA was bought from Walmart.
Debenhams finally fails. CORRECT
Major problems for M&S and/or John Lewis – a partnership between the two looks likely. CORRECT about problems for both M&S and JLP although WRONG about an M&S/JLP tie-up. - Major drug/alcohol or fraud/fixing issue uncovered in one or more of UK athletics, rugby, cricket. WRONG
- Extinction Rebellion fizzles out. PARTLY CORRECT in that ER have gone very quiet although they’re still around.
- Diane Abbott and Theresa May are diagnosed with long-term illnesses. WRONG as far as we know.
- Magnitude 4 or greater earthquake somewhere in UK. PARTLY CORRECT as there was a Mag 3.9 quake in Uxbridge in September.
- At least 200 deaths in illegal migration attempts to the UK. VOID as I’ve been unable to find any consolidated data.
- Plans announced to replace the Thames Barrier; work to start 2025 and complete 2040. WRONG
- Announcement that London congestion charge zone will be expanded out to N & S Circulars in 2025/6. PARTLY CORRECT; this was proposed by government (and sooner than 2025/6) as part of a deal to provide extra funding for TfL; however it was eventually removed.
- Relatively mild wet January/February followed by a cold wet spring & summer thus ensuring a poor fruit and grain harvest. WRONG as the winter was not especially warmer or wetter than of late; but CORRECT about the cool, wet Spring and Summer and the ensuing poor harvest.
- Death of the Queen and Prince Philip. Possibly also Prince Charles, in an accident. William becomes King by YE. WRONG on every count.
- Other Deaths: Edwina Currie, Gordon Brown, a royal duke, Kenneth Clarke, Jeffrey Archer, Dennis Skinner, Lord Heseltine, Lord Gowrie. WRONG on every count.
World
- Trump wins 2020 Presidential election due to Democrat dissent over their candidate. WRONG
- Saudi Arabia drastically cuts oil exports amid internecine turmoil. CORRECT; Saudi Arabia did cut oil exports but due to a fall in demand because of Covid-19.
- Zimbabwe finally succumbs to outright civil war which spills over into South Africa. WRONG
- South American countries descend further into right-wing government. WRONG
- Rate of Amazonian deforestation increases. CORRECT
Global temperature and CO2 emissions continue to rise. CORRECT
The COP26 climate talks in Glasgow (in November) end in disagreement and failure. VOID as the talks were postponed due to Covid-19. - Major violence (civil war?) in Turkey. WRONG
- Violent uprising continues in Hong Kong and India. CORRECT for both Hong Kong and India.
- Russia annexes one of the Baltic states. WRONG
- Big solar geomagnetic storm causes major breakdown of satellites and infrastructure, probably across North America but possibly elsewhere. WRONG
- Collision between two operational satellites (maybe as a result of geomagnetic storm). PARTLY CORRECT in that two (non-operational) satellites had a very close near-miss in January.
- Boeing Starliner and SpaceX Crew Dragon both launch crewed capsules. One of them fails with loss of the crew. CORRECT in that SpaceX did launch crew, and in fact took crew to ISS. WRONG about a Boeing Starliner crewed mission and loss of crew in a failure.
- At least one other major space mission fails. PARTLY CORRECT; with 10 orbital launch failures out of 112 (9%) this has been the most mission failures in a year since 1971.
- Magnitude 7 or greater earthquake in California and another in Peru. WRONG
- Greta Thunberg is burnt out and sinks out of sight to complete her education. PARTLY CORRECT in that Thunberg has gone very quiet although she’s still around.
- At least one major global IT company fails (or is saved only by a takeover). WRONG
Also a major airline and a shipping line. CORRECT for airlines; see, inter alia, Air Italy, Flybe, Virgin Atlantic.
VOID for shipping as again I can find no good data, but given the state of the shipping industry it seems likely there were major failures. - Major plane crash in western Europe – possibly France – possibly controlled flight into terrain. PARTLY CORRECT Ukrainian Boeing came down near Tehran; all 176 onboard lost.
- Ebola flares again in central Africa. CORRECT; there was an outbreak in DRC between June and November.
- Significant new disease emerges (as MERS and SARS did); concern at possible pandemic. CORRECT (in Spades!) with the emergence of pandemic Covid-19.
- Number of western countries ban vaping or include it in their anti-smoking regulations. WRONG
- Amazon and/or Facebook is involved in a major anti-trust or privacy law suit. CORRECT; Facebook is facing major (anti-trust?) law suits in USA.
- Deaths: Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Dalai Lama, Angela Merkel, Bill Gates, Rupert Murdoch. WRONG on all counts.
Personal
- Personal (a), (b): [[REDACTED]] WRONG
- Neighbours1 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]] WRONG
- Neighbours2: [[REDACTED]] WRONG
- Neighbours3: [[REDACTED]] WRONG
- Local Community1 (a), (b), (c): [[REDACTED]] (a) & (c) WRONG; (b) CORRECT
- Local Community2 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]] (a) CORRECT; (b) WRONG
- Local Community3: [[REDACTED]] WRONG
- Friends1 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]] WRONG
- Friends2 (a), (b), (c): [[REDACTED]] (a) CORRECT; (b) & (c) WRONG
- Friends3: [[REDACTED]] WRONG to the best of my knowledge
- Friends4 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]] WRONG
- Friends5 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]] WRONG but only just
- Friends6: [[REDACTED]] CORRECT
- Friends7: [[REDACTED]] WRONG to the best of my knowledge
- Deaths: 11 named individuals [[REDACTED]] CORRECT for two individuals; WRONG for the other nine to the best of my knowledge.
These have all been redacted as the content is bound to be sensitive to people I know, however they are documented in my files and will be reported on at the end of the year.
Yet again this is a pathetic hit rate, although in my defence I suggest that really all bets were off this year due to Covid-19.
Tomorrow I’ll post my predictions for 2021. Watch this space.