Category Archives: current affairs

Poppy Off

So FIFA have decreed that the England football team may not wear poppies on their shirts during their friendly match against Spain this coming Saturday. This is on the grounds that:

Fifa decrees that shirts should not carry political, religious or commercial messages. “Such initiatives would open the door to similar initiatives from all over the world, jeopardising the neutrality of football,” [FIFA] said.

I’m with FIFA. For once they’re absolutely right. If an exception is made in this instance it’ll be made for every other instance. The words “wedge”, “thin” and “end” come to mind.

Moreover someone has to stand up to this sycophantic poppy nonsense. As I wrote last year, I’m not saying we should forget all about the wars for the liberation of Europe, the bravery, the fallen, etc. But the whole thing is so totally out of hand one dare not do anything but go along with it. It’s dictatorial; it’s sycophantic; and it’s backward looking. We need to turn round and be going forward in happiness, thanks and peace; not looking backward in a sugar-coated, maudlin, pseudo-Christian, glorification of war. Yeuch!

I don’t expect other people to agree with me — although I can hope that some will. But it is only if dissident voices are heard that opinions (on anything) will ever change and progress will be made.

More on Greece

Thinking more about the Greek situation last evening, I realised there was one thing I hadn’t said — and which is picked up today by the news reports.

Papandreou clearly knows that in order to make the rescue deal work he has to take the Greek people with him. But that ain’t about to happen just because he (or anyone else) dictates the deal. So they have to agree voluntarily and than means getting them to vote in favour of the deal. Hence he has to hold a referendum — however much is pisses off Merkel and Sarkozy. Fortunately the Greek Cabinet seem to have got the message.

Greece

I don’t normally blog about politics, economics, etc. but I’m amused that the Greeks are playing chicken with the world monetary system and planning to hold a referendum on whether to accept the deal brokered last week by Germany and France.

From Papandreou’s point of view I guess he figures he has little to lose as outlined by Robert Peston on BBC News. Whatever he does he knows Greece will be a pariah. And by holding a referendum, what ever the outcome is, it won’t be Papandreou’s fault — the people not the government will have made the decision.


So what are the possible outcomes. Not good whatever the Greeks decide.

Greek parliament …
It seems to me that in calling a referendum Papandreou is hoping it will stimulate a paradigm shift in the brains of his party members opposing the deal. But news reports seem to indicate this is unlikely and that there will be fierce parliamentary opposition to a referendum. If parliament reject a referendum (or indeed the deal) then the Greek government falls. That might be as catastrophic as the Greek people rejecting the deal, and will be further uncertainty which will force the markets even further downwards (they are falling already).

If the Greek people accept the deal …
Well they may as well be turkeys voting for Christmas as all they’ll get is austerity and yet more austerity.
But the Euro and the banks get a reprieve for a year or so until the next round of threatened defaults by one of the bankrupt Euro-zone countries. Oh that’s all of them then!

If the Greeks reject the deal …
Greece has little choice but to default on it’s debts.
While this will save the Greek government the repayments, it ain’t going to do much ‘cos they’ll still have no money and not be able to borrow any. So the people will still get austerity.
And once Greece defaults there will be a domino effect. Italy, Spain and Ireland will likely follow suit.
Which means France will lose it’s AAA credit rating and Germany will ultimately end up picking up the tab for the whole of Europe.
That in turn will likely bring down the Euro, a number of world banks and possibly even the EU.
Which is going to be messy because the world leaders — and especially France, Germany and the USA (whose banks are also hock deep in all this) — can’t afford to let this happen.

So from a Greek perspective it looks like a “heads we lose, tails we don’t win” scenario; either way the Greek people lose.
And from everyone else’s point of view it’s “heads we can’t win, tails we lose everything”; the best that happens is the next banking crisis is postponed by a few months.

And whatever the Greeks now do, they manage to piss off Merkel and Sarkozy big time — even bigger time than they have already. The meeting between Papandreou, Merkel and Sarkozy scheduled for later this week could be fiery, to say the least.

Plus Greece is on the slippery slope to becoming a third world country.

Interesting times we live in, innit?!

Economics and Ordure

Just to prove that there is some meat to this weblog, the working thinker has been active again. In the wake of the mess with the European economy I’ve been thinking about economics and especially fiscal systems.

The conclusion? The whole problem is politicians.

Our current crop of Politicians are wedded to the idea of a free market economy which is all well and good as the Communist-style totally regulated and controlled approach seems to have been tried and found wanting.

But the politicians aren’t prepared to allow the free market to develop and work unhindered. To do so would mean allowing some to prosper and others to go to the wall. And that is as true of countries as much as it is of the shops on the High Street.

What the politicians seem to want is a centralised monetary system while allowing countries local control. And as we’ve seen with Greece, Ireland, et al. when this happens some will go to the wall. But politicians can’t allow this to happen so they have to fiddle with the system. So we end up with a gilded pile of ordure.

As with many things there are only two ways to make the economy work (anything like) successfully and they are at the opposite ends of the spectrum. Either one has a free market economy with no controls and Devil take the hindmost. Or one has a totally regulated Communist-style economy. Our current beliefs are in favour of the former.

What is currently happening in Europe and elsewhere is that a unified monetary system has been imposed without a properly unified monetary policy and control mechanism to back it up. Consequently we have a mess where the system has run but no-one can be allowed to fail. In other words it’s a free market but without the freedoms and consequences.

A federal system doesn’t work where there is local control of the really major, outward-looking policy matters: fiscal, monetary, defence, foreign affairs. There has to be some overarching and effective method of the whole system telling the same story and doing the same things.

Looking at the USA a federal system works OK where the component parts are allowed freedom to manage personal, lower-level, inward-looking policy, eg. traffic management, public transportation, administration of justice; things which by and large don’t have a major effect on the monetary etc. systems of central government.

As in other spheres, if we want something which works with any level of apparent success then we have to operate at one or other end of the spectrum. Anything in between and we are guaranteed to end up with everything all over the floor — which actually means we’re worse off all round because unreasonable amounts of money and effort have to go into patching the system.

Consequently monetary union without political union seems to be doomed to failure. So either we have to have a Europe of full political and monetary union (effectively a United States of Europe) or it has to remain a club of individually empowered component parts with their chosen monetary systems allowed to float against each other (and fail if they get things wrong).

Essentially I don’t much care which we have as long as it isn’t some completely bastardised mess like the present. Although my inclination is in favour of the more fragmented approach as full union soon becomes over regulated, artificially stifles freedom and feel like a quicker path to Communism or dictatorship.

Discuss.

Weekly Links

Here’s another in my occasional series of round-ups of things you may have missed but shouldn’t have done.

Scientists have discovered and characterised a giganto-virus and called it … Megavirus. How original! The Loom has the low-down.

Is the alcohol message wrong? Apparently the answer is, yes. By focussing people on not drinking and not getting violent we stimulate them to exactly the opposite. Apparently we should be concentrating on getting them to drink sensibly and enjoy it, not trying to forbid drinking. Here’s the story from the BBC.

An interesting observation from Diamond Geezer on the evolution of news presentation. The intertubes make it all complex, indexed and top down, whereas what most of us want is the diversity of the traditional linear presentation.

Finally one for the girls … You want bigger tits? Why have expensive (and allegedly dangerous) surgery when you can achieve the result with Breast Slapping?

Quotes of the Week

This week’s selection of quotes which caught my eye during the last week …

Everyone has a photographic memory … Some just don’t have film.
[Thoughts of Angel]

We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be.
[Kurt Vonnegut]

Which links quite nicely to the following two …

We now return to the spring of 1593 and the events leading up to the killing of Christopher Marlowe … with a new understanding of the continuity of secret politics as a factor in his life. He is remembered as a poet … and as a wild young blasphemer in an age of enforced devotion, but he was also a spy … one of hundreds of such men, part of a maverick army of intelligencers and projectors on which the government of the day depended, sometimes out of a genuine need for information, but often in ways that relate more to political expediency, to courtly in-fighting, to police-state repression.
[Charles Nicholl, The Reckoning: The Murder of Christopher Marlowe, 2nd edition, 2002]

As we have found, time and again, informers have often a need to create information. They are ‘projectors’ who provoke or indeed invent dangerous sentiments in order to denounce them. They are ‘politicians’ in that pejorative Elizabethan sense, the sense in which Shakespeare means it when King Lear says, ‘Get thee glass eyes and, like a scurvy politician, seem to see the things thou dost not’.
[Charles Nicholl, The Reckoning: The Murder of Christopher Marlowe, 2nd edition, 2002]

Environmental Reform. Gawdelpus.

I’ve been thinking recently about environmental reform and trying to square the circle of how we can achieve it. It is hard, which isn’t surprising. If it were easy someone would surely have gotten a grip of it by now.

I’ve taken all the major pieces that I can see (no doubt others will come up with important things I’ve missed) and tried to put them together in one picture to show how they all inter-relate. It’s a messy mesh. [Click the image for a larger version.]

I’ve written before about the need to reform agriculture; [see, inter alia, here and here]; reduce meat consumption; use good land for arable; and have animals graze only on marginal land as they are designed to do. This would make food production more sustainable and provide enough nutrition for everyone … without massive deforestation. It will also reduce water use. And it would be good for overall health by changing the dietary balance from meat to vegetable calories.

But environmental reform goes much wider than this if we are to return the planet to a sustainable whole.

There is also a need to reduce our dependence on mining and the extraction of minerals, oil etc. These activities provide some very dirty fuels, very dirty processes and destroy large swathes of the environment. And to achieve this we ask the people who work in these industries to do some incredibly dirty, demanding and demeaning jobs which many of us would not do. How can that be moral?

And yet currently we are hungry for more and more and more of these mined and finite resources.

Only recently I realised why the western world is so interested in Afghanistan — for its mineral wealth. As was said some years ago about the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait: would we care if all they grew was carrots and not oil? There are already well developed plans for quarrying and raping large swathes of Afghanistan once the political situation is stabilised — maybe sooner [Scientific American, October 2011].

Clearly we cannot totally abandon mining, quarrying etc. But we need to make major reductions. This implies a significant shift away from our dependence on limited reserves of dirty fossil fuels. And not just because of the CO2 that is poured out by burning them.

In turn this implies two things: a shift in the ways in which we generate power and just as importantly a significant reduction in the amount of power we use. It also implies a shift in the way we power our transport, and the amount of transport we use.

But it seems to me that power generation is itself a large part of the problem. 85% of world power is derived from oil, coal and gas, compared with just 6% for nuclear [Wikipedia, “World Energy Consumption”**].

Sure there are alternatives, but none of them is without problems. For example, growing biofuels uses arable land which should be used for agriculture. So in this scheme that is not a good option. Which leaves essentially wind, water, solar and nuclear. Hmmm…

We know that wind and water cannot provide all the power we need, even at a reduced level of consumption [Wikipedia, “Wind Power”].

And moreover I worry about how sustainable wind, water and solar really are. We build wind generator masts from huge amounts of steel, concrete and other materials which ultimately rely on mining, drilling and energy-hungry refining. Is this actually environmentally sustainable when looked at holistically? Or would it be more sustainable to build wooden wind turbines (they’re called windmills!) from trees grown on marginal non-arable land, and replace them every few years? Trees which will also mop up CO2 and provide habitat as well as wood which is renewable and recyclable.

The suggestion is [Wikipedia, “Environmental Impact of Wind Power”] that the CO2 emissions payback for wind turbines is within a matter of months. But what about the other impacts of producing wind turbines: mining, water consumption, etc.? How do they affect the equation? I don’t know. I rather doubt anyone knows with any certainty. Maybe we need to find out.

Water and solar power must come under the same scrutiny. What are the environmental impacts of the raw materials and power needed to produce the solar panels? Building dams etc. for hydro-electric schemes is unlikely to be much better. And there you have the added cost of flooding large areas (of often good arable land) to make reservoirs.

Which leaves us with nuclear.

Well I have to be honest and say that I view nuclear as probably our least worst option. It is surprisingly clean. Yes, despite disasters like Chernobyl and Fukushima. There is WHO research that shows the biggest medical problem form Chernobyl is not the additional cancers caused by radiation exposure; they have been far lower than predicted. No the biggest problem has been the mental health effects of the stress [Jonathan Watts, “Fukushima Disaster: it’s not over yet”, Guardian, 9 September 2011].

And Fukushima seems to be going the same way. There the very old reactors withstood the onslaughts of the earthquake and tsunami amazingly well; better than their design specification. Yes there are problems. And as always the situation appears to have been handled extremely badly, largely because people are frightened of nuclear — because they can’t see it and they’re frightened of cancer — and frightened to tell the truth.

Chernobyl was the result of inadequate reactor design and failures of operating practice. Fukushima was the result of a natural disaster and an inadequate process on an old style reactor which was, frankly, built in the wrong place. Clearly there are lessons to learn in terms of design and operational process.

Modern reactor design and build is already vastly improved on that of 40 years ago. Such modern reactors are many times more resilient to failures. At one major incident every 20-25 years nuclear looks a pretty good option. And incremental improvement, aircraft industry style, should see that reduce even further.

Yet, it too isn’t as good as we would like. We still have to mine the uranium ore. We must decommission the life-expired reactors. And we have the immense problem of the nuclear waste. But what is better: nuclear waste we have to bury for thousands of years or an increasing number of environmentally dirty slag heaps etc. occupying surface land which cannot be reused due to chemical contamination? And of course there is a chance that over time science will find a way of reusing the nuclear waste. No, it isn’t an easy equation to solve!

We also have to reduce the amount of water we use. Recent data show that in the US every person uses 7786 litres of water a day in the products they consume and another 575 litres for direct use. Spain, Australia, Italy and Brazil (in that order) aren’t far behind. Surprisingly (to me) the UK fares somewhat better at 3446 and 149 litres respectively. That’s still not good though [The Times, Eureka Magazine Supplement, 5 October 2011].
< br />Vast amounts of water are used growing meat. For example, it takes 15,000 litres of water to grow 1 kilo of beef. A daily diet of fruits, vegetables and grains requires something over 1,500 litres of water, compared with some 3,400 litres for a daily diet rich in animal protein [Wikipedia, “Water Use”]. It is estimated that worldwide 69% of water use is for agriculture, 22% for industrial process and just 8% is used domestically [Wikipedia, “Water Resources”]. So reforms in industry, mining and agriculture would have huge pay-offs for water use.

I’m certainly not suggesting any of this is easy and I’m as guilty as the next person for the amount I consume. As the diagram shows everything is so inextricably intertwined that there is no one place we can start which will have a dramatic and immediate effect although a change in one area will have knock on effects everywhere else. Everything affects everything else so we have to tackle this holistically, from all angles. That needs governments and us, the people, to all start doing the right things so that over time it all comes together.

That needs political will, personal will and commercial will. And an abandonment of vested interests.

And to achieve that probably needs a maverick visionary somewhere like the top of the UN to grip the problem and drive all governments along a better path, and for governments to have the vision to cascade that down to their people. Left to individual countries and individual people we ain’t going nowhere; we’ll continue along the path of everyone looking after their own interests. United we can succeed; divided we will surely fail.

Gawdelpus.

** I make no apology for referencing Wikipedia throughout this article, especially as most of the articles quoted are themselves well referenced.

Quotes of the Week

Well let’s start this week’s selection where we left off last week, with something from John Aubrey …

Even the cats were different, and Aubrey could recall when ‘the common English Catt was white with some blewish piednesse sc gallipot-blew, the race or breed of them are now almost lost’ … Aubrey says that Archbishop Laud had been ‘a great lover of Catts. He was presented with some Cypruss-catts, our Tabby-catts, which were sold at first for 5li a piece. This was about 1637 or 1638’. Tabbies are still called ‘cyprus cats’ in Norfolk.
[Anthony Powell, John Aubrey and His Friends]

There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that “my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge”.
[Isaac Asimov in Newsweek, 21 January 1980]

I discovered books and music while everyone else got into drugs. Books and music were my drugs. What I read and listened to then shaped and changed my life forever.
[Katy Wheatley on her weblog]

I find being middle aged rather liberating. I wear what I like. I eat what I like. I listen to and watch what I like. I do not  feel ashamed of anything that makes me happy and makes my life feel richer, better and more joyous.
[Katy Wheatley on her weblog]

Katy, dearest, how many more times do I have to tell you that you aren’t middle aged? You can’t be middle aged — you’re younger than I am! Anyway I’m not having it, if only because if you’re middle aged then I’m senile and I ain’t ready for that yet.

To be a high achiever, always work on something important, using it as an easy way to avoid doing something that’s even more important.
[John Perry, University of Stanford, Winner of the 2011 Ig Nobel for Literature]

And finally, confirmation from an unknown source of what we all suspected …

Bureaucracy is the art of making the possible impossible.

It's Been a Busy Week!

There seems to have been a lot going on this week which drew my attention but which I didn’t get to write about here. So here’s a summary (in no particular order) …

First an interesting item on how belief can kill. It’s a curious phenomenon but even so I can’t bring myself to read the book. See The Dark Side of the Placebo Effect: When Intense Belief Kills.

Much more interesting and useful is a long article on the National Geographic site about the workings of Teenage Brains and how this should be seen as a sensible evolutionary trait. It might also help all of us understand and relate with teenagers. It certainly seems to explain quite a lot.

Next an investigative journalism piece about the Fukishima Disaster and especially the long-term effects on the Japanese population. The suggestion is that the effects of stress etc. will be far more significant than the actual radiation doses (I guess excluding the immediately affected workers). For my money the article still doesn’t delve deep enough — but the journo writing it probably couldn’t get access to do so.

Law and Lawyers has written several pieces about the worrying machinations of the Metropolitan Police in attempting to get The Guardian to reveal some of its sources. First they were going to use the Official Secrets Act, then PACE 1984. For now though it seems the dogs of war remain caged.

Also this week Obiterj at Law and Lawyers has pointed out that the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011 comes into force. This means the next General Election will be on 7 May 2015 — unless both Houses of Parliament decide otherwise by a two-thirds majority.

Which for a scientist somewhat pales into insignificance beside the apparent result from a team at CERN that they have detected neutrinos doing the impossible and travelling faster than light. But hold on guys, they don’t quite relieve it either and they’re asking the scientific community for help to test their results. Good scientific commentary by Adrian Cho at Wired and Phil Plait of Bad Astronomy.

Finally back to earth. There’s been lots of twittering in the dovecotes about female orgasm, how it relates to evolutionary pressures and to male orgasm. Also some good demonstrations on how to demolish a (supposedly) scientific study. The best of the critiques I’ve seen is from Scicurious. Maybe you girls should just be allowed to enjoy it?

Have an orgasmic weekend!