Category Archives: ramblings

personal, ramblings

Ten Things, March

This year our Ten Things series is focusing on each month in turn. The Ten Things may include facts about the month, momentous events that happened, personal things, and any other idiocy I feel like – just because I can. So here are …

Ten Things about March

  1. March is named after Mars, the Roman god of war
  2. In Wales, St David’s day is celebrated on 1st …
  3. … and 1st is also the start of meteorological Spring
  4. Similarly the Irish celebrate St Patrick’s day on 17th
  5. My father’s birthday was also in March
  6. Roman Emperor, Julius Caesar was assassinated on the Ides of March, which is 15th
  7. Then there’s the Spring Equinox, celebrated by pagans as Ostara
  8. The Feast of the Annunciation is on 25th, exactly nine months before Christmas
  9. Birthstone: Aquamarine
  10. In the UK Summertime begins on last Sunday
personal, ramblings

Ten Things, February

This year our Ten Things series is focusing on each month in turn. The Ten Things may include facts about the month, momentous events that happened, personal things, and any other idiocy I feel like – just because I can. So here are …

Ten Things about February

  1. Was originally named after the Roman purification ritual Februa held on 15th.
  2. It is always the shortest month.
  3. Pagans celebrate Imbolc, halfway between the winter solstice and the spring equinox on 1st.
  4. Whereas Christians have Candlemas on 2nd.
  5. St Valentines Day is, of course, on 14th.
  6. Most years Chinese New Year falls in February; this year it is on Tuesday 5th.
  7. In Anglo-Saxon this is Sol-monath (cake month – sounds good to me!).
  8. Shrove Tuesday & Ash Wednesday fall in February in most years, unless as this year Easter is especially late when they are just in March.
  9. February is the only month which is variable in length, having the extra day every four years (except century years); there are 97 Leap Months every 400 years.
  10. Birthstone: Amethyst
personal, ramblings

Ten Things, January

This year our Ten Things series is focusing on each month in turn. The Ten Things may include facts about the month, momentous events that happened, personal things, and any other idiocy I feel like – just because I can. So here are …

Ten Things about January

  1. Surprise, surprise! … It’s New Year
  2. Then there’s Twelfth Night
  3. And my birthday
  4. And Epiphany
  5. The month was originally dedicated to Roman god Janus
  6. Birthstone: Garnet
  7. January corresponds to the Anglo-Saxon Wolf Month
  8. Burns’ Night, when the Scots celebrate their national poet by eating haggis and drinking whisky, is on 25th
  9. First recorded lottery was held in England in 1569
  10. 31st is allegedly sacred to the Valkyries and the Norns
amusements, current affairs, personal, ramblings

Predictions for 2019

So once again this year I’ve retrieved my crystal ball from the back of the wardrobe and dusted it off. However it is extremely cloudy so despite regular consultations over the last month what follows are my guesses at what may happen during 2019.

As before, I’ve divided the predictions into sections: UK (Brexit), UK (Other), World and Personal. I figured that Brexit is sufficiently horrible all on its own it deserved a section to itself. Note also that various items are currently redacted (although I have them documented) as some might consider them over-sensitive.

Disclaimer. I remind you that these are just my ideas of what could happen; they’re based solely on hunches and gut feel; I have no inside knowledge, I haven’t been studying the form, and I have a success rate of about 20%. So if you base any decision on any of this I will take no responsibility for your wanton act of idiocy or its consequences.

UK (Brexit)

  1. Despite all the clamour, there will not be a second referendum on Brexit, and even if there is the result will still be Leave.
  2. Parliament will not be able to agree the negotiated deal so Britain leaves the EU on 29 March with no deal, no fall-back plan, and no “implementation period”.
  3. All trade stops as it is discovered that WTO rules cannot be applied instantly and easily. Resolution takes at least 3 months.
  4. A hard border has to be implemented in Ireland almost overnight and is accomplished only by using troops.
  5. There’s surprise that airlines cannot fly in/out of UK, and this badly affects food/medicine supply.
  6. There are delays of up to a week (ie. that’s how long trucks have to queue) to get goods in/out to Europe via the seaports. Troops are required to manage the flow of trucks.
  7. UK economy is in recession by mid-year.
  8. Food and medicine supply issues are biting hard by end April as stocks run low and imports are almost impossible. There won’t be rationing but there will be significantly empty supermarket shelves.
  9. There’s no insulin available by end May. Lack of insulin and other diabetes drugs results in 5K excess deaths during the year and another 5K avoided only due to an increased rate of amputations. The NHS estimate that a further 50K have unnecessary adverse events.
  10. Due to import issues prices rise sharply and inflation hits 20% but stabilises to 5% by year-end.
  11. Bank base rate is reduced to 0% as the banking sector is unable to do business/make money. Most savings rates are 0% while the mortgage rate rises to at least 10% resulting in an increase of repossessions.
  12. House prices fall by 20-30%.
  13. At some point during the year £1 will be worth no more than $0.90, and €0.90 (although not necessarily at the same time).
  14. Moody’s downrate UK credit rating by at least two notches.
  15. Despite this the FTSE100 ends the year up 10%.

UK (Other)

  1. This is a year of trouble, unrest and pigeons coming home to roost – not all caused by Brexit but often due to incompetence and/or poor planning. Good news is in very short supply.
  2. Theresa May resigns as PM, possibly due to ill health.
  3. Andrea Leadsom becomes PM and appoints Jacob Rees-Mogg as Chancellor, with Boris Johnson as Deputy PM.
  4. Ulster sectarian troubles boil over again; multiple shootings / bombings by both sides.
  5. Labour Party adopts an official policy to re-unify Ireland.
  6. TfL is declared bankrupt, causing chaos for London travellers. The government refuses to provide a bail-out. This results in many redundancies, pruned services and upgrade projects, and protracted strike action.
  7. Work on Crossrail is paused, and the opening delayed to 2021. The Emirates Dangleway will close. Crossrail 2 is postponed by at least 3 years.
  8. HS2 is cut back due to lack of funding. Heathrow Third Runway is also delayed due to lack of money. Hinkley C nuclear power station development is cancelled.
  9. There’s a murder on my street.
  10. The Sussex’s baby [REDACTED] will be named Diana or Iris (if a girl); Robert or David (if a boy).
  11. A reintroduced wolf or lynx kills a human.
  12. Beavers are found to be colonising the upper reaches of the Thames basin. No-one knows (or will admit to) how they got there.
  13. A feral big cat (probably lynx or puma) is conclusively confirmed somewhere in the UK; it may be captured or shot to confirm the identification.
  14. Major terrorist attack somewhere in UK (probably London) kills 50 including a high profile politician or minor royal.
  15. The country lurches even further towards pervasive surveillance and a police state with troops, and openly armed police, regularly on the streets in major conurbations.
  16. At least one train crash and one plane crash; each with 20 dead.
  17. A rail franchise will fail and have to be taken back into public ownership.
  18. A major hospital (in England) fails and closes unexpectedly.
  19. At least three major companies (possibly including a bank/building society and a supermarket) fail; 1000 job losses each.
  20. Deaths: Bill Turnbull, Tariq Ali, George Monbiot, David Jason, Derek Jacobi, Richard Branson, Leslie Phillips, Prince Philip, another Royal Duke/Prince.

World

  1. Anthropologists discover that an isolated tribe (probably in Africa; possibly pygmies) is not Homo sapiens but another hominin species.
  2. DNA recovered from ancient hominin teeth totally changes our current understanding of human evolution.
  3. Astronomers identify another extra-solar system “asteroid” visitor (like Oumuamua) and prove this one is an alien spacecraft, although it appears to be dead.
  4. The upgraded LIGO experiment fails to reproduce its previous detection of gravitational waves, throwing whole areas of physics into turmoil.
  5. There will be significant damage to ISS which forces its abandonment and a long pause in manned space-flight.
  6. Donald Trump is confirmed to be suffering from a mild form of dementia, but is ruled as still fit to govern.
  7. CO2 emissions rise by at least 5% year-on-year in US, India and China.
  8. In a petulant move, Russia cuts off gas supply to Europe for at least three months.
  9. The global average temperature for the year is at least 1°C above the long-term average.
  10. There’s a disease pandemic – cause currently unknown, but not flu, Ebola or Zika.
  11. There’s an outbreak of Ebola in South America; plus 6 cases in UK, not all imported.
  12. Major terrorist attacks in western world: 1 in USA and 2 in other places; combined deaths 250.
  13. More die in mass shootings in USA this year than in 2018.
  14. Saudi Arabia annexes one or more of UAE, Dubai, Kuwait.
  15. A Chinese warship fires at a US Navy vessel in the South China Sea; this may be the start of a US/China war in the area.
  16. MH370 is found by accident in waters between Australia, Papua New Guinea and East Timor. One of the black boxes is recovered.
  17. At least one round the world sailor is lost at sea and never found (although the deserted yacht is found).
  18. There are three major transport accidents (plane/train/cruise liner/ferry) each with 100 deaths.
  19. There’s a major earthquake (around magnitude 8) along the Himalayas which causes widespread destruction in Tibet, Nepal and Bhutan with thousands of deaths. As a result the summit of Mt Everest is 1m lower.
  20. Deaths: Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Robert Mugabe, Pope Emeritus Benedict, Elon Musk, a major European politician.

Personal

  1. In family history, I finally unlock the brick wall in my Marshall line in mid-18th century, although I then get stuck at about 1700.
  2. Family. [REDACTED]
  3. Personal. [REDACTED]
  4. Doctors. [REDACTED]
  5. Friends 1. [REDACTED]
  6. Friends 2. [REDACTED]
  7. Friends 3. [REDACTED]
  8. Friends 4. [REDACTED]
  9. My total lottery winnings for the year are less than £50.
  10. Deaths. [REDACTED]

Obviously I’m going to keep a tally and will publish the results at the end of the year. I wonder if I’ll do any better than the pathetic 20% I scored in 2018?

current affairs, personal, ramblings

Predictions for 2018 — The Results

This time last year I made a series of predictions about what would happen during 2017. So what did I get right, and what wrong?
[Some names have been redacted to protect the sensitive and vulnerable.]

UK

  1. Brexit. It becomes clear that no Brexit deal is possible, but no-one has the courage to cancel Brexit so the UK is sleepwalking over a cliff to become a third world country (economically and socially) by 2020. CORRECT
  2. The government will ensure that, despite its expressed wish, Parliament does not have a meaningful vote on the final Brexit deal. CORRECT, so far
  3. Increasing sexual harassment claims in Parliament and involving members of the government, on top of divisions over Brexit, are likely to bring down the government. WRONG
  4. However, it’s unlikely there will be a General Election, but if there is it will be won by Labour with a tiny majority. CORRECT; no general election
  5. Michael Portillo is given a peerage and a seat in the Cabinet. WRONG
  6. Boris Johnson is replaced as Foreign Secretary by one of David Davies, Liam Fox or Michael Gove. PARTLY CORRECT; Boris did resign but was replaced by Jeremy Hunt
  7. Part of the Palace of Westminster collapses and the whole building is evacuated long-term, and may even have to be demolished. WRONG
  8. UK interest rates rise twice during the year, each time by 0.25%. WRONG; only one rise
  9. Inflation remains at 3.0-3.5%. WRONG; inflation actually declined to 2.2%
  10. Stamp Duty relief for first-time buyers pushes property prices up by 10%. WRONG; house prices rose by 2.7% in the year to October (the latest figures available)
  11. Tesco try to buy another supermarket chain but are prevented from doing so by the Monopolies Commission. WRONG; although Sainsbury and Asda were discussing a merger
  12. Waitrose close 20 stores across UK by YE and record an operating loss. WRONG; Waitrose recorded a profit although parent company John Lewis made a loss; nonetheless Waitrose announced 5 store closures
  13. Ryanair buy/merge with EasyJet. WRONG
  14. Move to regulate and meter all London taxi fares (including all private hire). WRONG
  15. Uber wins the appeal over its withdrawn operating licence in London. CORRECT; and Uber was given a 15 month licence
  16. Heavy flu season with many hospitals unable to cope with demand, contributing to 10,000 excess deaths. PARTLY CORRECT; it was a heavier than usual flu season with an estimated 6000 excess deaths
  17. At least two major disasters (industrial, train crash, plane crash etc.) with a combined total of over 200 fatalities. WRONG
  18. Driverless vehicles kill six cyclists in the UK. WRONG
  19. Red Arrows are disbanded after another fatal accident. PARTLY CORRECT; there was another Red Arrows-related fatality but the group is still operational
  20. Murders. At least 5 murders within 8km (5 miles) of my house. CORRECT; I counted 10 by mid-year and then gave up counting; one murder was just a mile away
  21. No snow in London for the whole of 2018 with temperatures 2°C above average across the year. WRONG; there was snow in January and February; temperatures look to have been about average overall across the year
  22. Prince Harry’s wedding day will be wet. WRONG; the day was dry, sunny and warm
  23. Meghan Markle gives birth less than 9 months after her wedding to Prince Harry. WRONG; although she is now pregnant this appears to have happened after the wedding
  24. Deaths: Prince Charles, a current England cricketer, [REDACTED], [REDACTED]. WRONG on all four counts

World

  1. There’s an attack on Donald Trump’s life, which results in the death of several bodyguards and assailants, but only minor injuries to Trump. WRONG
  2. Average of one terror-related attack a month across Europe (including UK) with total fatalities in excess of 120. PARTLY CORRECT; according to Wikipedia plus some I noted there have been around 25 terrorist-related attacks in Europe this year, but they have amounted to only around 26 deaths (including the perpetrators)
  3. It’s unlikely North Korea will fire a nuclear weapon at the US to start WW3, but quite possible the US will fire first probably with conventional weapons. PARTLY CORRECT; North Korea didn’t attack the US and the US didn’t mount a premptive strike
  4. Kim Jong-un will fall from power in North Korea. WRONG
  5. There could be military conflict over China’s appropriation of islands in the South China Sea. WRONG
  6. Vladimir Putin is re-elected as Russian President; in fact there’s a good chance he will be the only candidate. CORRECT; Putin was the only serious candidate
  7. US lose a submarine and are unable to rescue the crew. WRONG
  8. Ukraine is proven to be illegally selling radioactive materials, and cannot/will not identify all the buyers. WRONG
  9. Saudi Arabia. Assassinations in the Saudi royal family [DETAILS REDACTED]. WRONG
  10. Civil war in Zimbabwe which spills over into South Africa due to uncertainties about the South African presidency. WRONG
  11. The Pope is embroiled in controversy possibly surrounding a significant shift in core Catholic theology. WRONG
  12. At least one space disaster (possibly on the ground) which kills two; and at least one major inter-planetary mission is lost in transit. PARTLY CORRECT; Soyuz launch malfunction with 2 crew doing a safe emergency descent.
  13. Euro – Dollar – Pound parity. WRONG
  14. There’ll be a major financial crash, with long-term knock-on effects, although it’s not clear if this will be in US, Europe or the Far East. WRONG
  15. At least two household name companies are hacked with over 100 million sets of personal information exposed. CORRECT; MyHeritage 92 million; Facebook 50 million; Dixons Carphone 5.9 million amongst the front runners
  16. Uber buys Lyft. WRONG
  17. Two of Amazon, Google and IBM merge. WRONG
  18. Scientists believe they have discovered extra-terrestrial life (not necessarily intelligent). WRONG
  19. Major eruption of Vesuvius or Mt Etna with widespread destruction and mass evacuation, but fewer than 50 fatalities. PARTLY CORRECT; eruption of Mt Etna on Christmas Eve and following days; reports of damage due to associated earthquakes; few casualties
  20. Magnitude 7 or above earthquake in California which, with continuing drought, all but destroys their fruit production. WRONG; although several Mag 7 or above quakes in USA/Mexico
  21. At least one major US city will be destroyed (and quite possibly permanently abandoned) due to a severe hurricane (possibly New Orleans, Orlando, Miami). PARTLY CORRECT; Hurricanes Florence and Michael had a pretty good shot, with Michael effectively destroying the town of Mexico Beach, FL
  22. Massive collapse of another Antarctic glacier or ice sheet. CORRECT
  23. Poland beat Russia in FIFA World Cup final, with Denmark and Brazil as losing semi-finalists. WRONG
  24. Other deaths: Dalai Lama. WRONG

Personal

  1. Anthony Powell Society. I stand down as Secretary of AP Soc, but there is no replacement identified triggering discussions about winding up the Society. PARTLY CORRECT; I did stand down but there were replacements
  2. Noreen has a major medical problem from which she recovers, although this forces a rebalancing of household tasks. WRONG
  3. Cats. We lose another cat and decide not to have more than two. WRONG
  4. Jacqui Piper will have her knee replacement postponed at least twice and may end up not getting it done this year. WRONG; Jacqui’s operation was postponed once but went ahead in July
  5. Nine deaths predicted [NAMES REDACTED]. WRONG on every single one of them

With a hit rate of only 20% that’s not a very impressive year! Definitely could do better.

I’ll be posting my predictions for 2018 in the next few days, so if you have any good predictions please do share them.

current affairs, environment, ramblings

HS2 (again)

1 Comment

Lord (Tony) Berkeley writes a regular column in the Railway Magazine. In the July issue he once again takes a very scathing look at HS2. The article isn’t online but here are a few key extracts:

Head in sand over escalating HS2 costs

New Civil Engineer reports design elements for one of the main design and construct contracts let for the civil works were coming in at 18% over the target price, up from £6.6billion to £7.8bn.

… some bids were as much as 30% to 40% higher than their individual target price.

… the project is probably running three to four years late, even before any serious work on the ground has started. Other estimates from along the route indicate the project is held up because the purchases of the necessary land and additional areas needed for accommodation works are late.

Has HS2 allowed for the cost of diverting a 12in-diameter fuel pipe a dozen times along the route? Have they applied to the National Grid for the necessary power supply for the trains and for the required capital cost contribution to build the necessary power station capacity? Have they allowed for the cost of driving piles to support 20km of double slab track in the mushy ground of the Trent Valley?

I have asked many questions in the Lords since that time and have always been told the funding
envelope of £23.73bn at 2015 prices is still valid.

Given what we are now discovering there seems to be every reason to suppose the out-turn cost of Phase 1 will be a lot closer to £50bn than the DfT’s £25bn.

Surely it is time to reflect on why ministers continue to allow HS2 to have a blank cheque to spend what they like – a figure likely to reach more than £100bn if Phases 2A and 2B are included – while at the same time starving Network Rail of any investment …

It is all investment in the railway and there are many who believe £100bn could make a massive
difference to improving the present network in a greater number of beneficial ways.

Now we know that Tony Berkeley is a powerful voice in the rail freight side of the industry (so he’s not totally unbiased), but he is also a respected civil engineer. Even if half of what he says were to stand up to scrutiny (and from what I’ve read I’m unsure about the cost figures quoted) then it is yet another damning condemnation of this benighted government.

HS2 is a vanity project, pure and simple. It is government “willy waving” on a massive scale. See, for instance, this in the Spectator, this and this in the Daily Mail.

And all of that is without the environmental damage HS2 will do – as the Woodland Trust and the National Trust highlight.

Isn’t it time for everyone to come clean and admit that we just cannot afford HS2? Environmentally or financially. If nothing else, wherever the money is supposed to be coming from, it just isn’t there. Not when we have such a huge public debt. Not now, and certainly not after Brexit.

amusements, ramblings

Ten Things

It’s “stick you neck on the block” time in this month’s Ten Things …

Ten Vanity Projects (Past and Present):

  1. London’s Garden Bridge (hopefully now permanently abandoned)
  2. HS2 (High Speed London to Birmingham, and beyond, rail link)
  3. Olympic Games
  4. World Cup Football
  5. Formula 1
  6. Heathrow Runway 3
  7. London’s Millennium Dome
  8. Pedestrianisation of Oxford Street
  9. London’s Emirates Dangleway
  10. Donald Trump (right; a vanity project all on his own)
beliefs, ramblings

Gendered Loos

A story in the Guardian earlier this week quotes “feminist academic” Germaine Greer as saying publicly on Channel 4 TV that all public toilets should be gender-neutral.

Now I don’t like Germaine Greer, her strident attitude and many of her apparent beliefs. But on this I have to agree with her. Why can’t toilets be gender-neutral?

I recall when I was a graduate student (mid-1970s), I was a student rep on the university’s accommodation sub-committee and we were debating the possibility of having mixed corridors in student residences. Not just mixed blocks with single sex corridors of rooms, but actually mixed corridors. This was put up for debate by the university housing department as a way of better utilising the available accommodation. None of the student reps had a problem with the idea, nor did the younger university staff; in fact the only objections came from a couple of stuffed shirts at the top of the housing department. As we all pointed out: bathrooms have doors which can be locked, as do student rooms; and we all have to live in the real world with mixed genders. So how are student residences any different especially when many students choose to live in mixed-gendered flats/houses.
(I don’t know if this was implemented as I left before the start of the next academic year.)

How is this different from having mixed toilets, even if the toilets are “public conveniences”? Our local swimming pool has a mixed gender changing room with cubicles. How is this different from mixed toilets? We live in a multi-gendered society. It’s not as if we’re asking pregnant or menstruating women (or indeed anyone else) to perform their ablutions without any screening; and yes, I do get why they wouldn’t want to.

So you think you (or the children) might see something they shouldn’t. Oh, please! For a start we all know what’s under my t-shirt and jeans, and your t-shirt and jeans, so why the fuss. And kids have to learn about what’s under those t-shirts and jeans, and the bodily functions, sooner or later. How much better for them to learn in an open environment where they can be properly, and age-appropriately, explained by a parent, grandparent etc. – or in an educational environment like a school?

Yes, OK, public toilets tend not to be the most pleasant of places, but we make them that way. Men’s loos are supposedly worse than women’s – until you talk to people who run clubs who’ll tell you the women’s loos are often much worse than the men’s. So we all need to be more civilised. And maybe the thought that the other gender – who, of course, we want to impress – are watching might get us all to smarten up our ideas.

If gender neutral (or should they be “gender inclusive”) toilets are such a bad idea how is it that many public organisations like theatres and museums, let alone many companies, are going this route? And how come “disabled access toilets” are always non-gendered?

I don’t buy all this division of facilitates, any facilities, by gender. For all me we’d have mixed gender changing rooms with no cubicles. I just don’t get the problem, and I never have. I can’t be doing with it.

So I have to concede that Germaine Greer is right: all public toilets should be gender neutral.

links, personal, ramblings

Welcome!

Welcome to the new Zen Mischief site!

If you have landed here it appears that the migration from our old site has been a success. Thank you for your patience during the transition.

So what has changed?

  1. The driver for the change was to make the Zen Mischief Weblog part of this front page.
  2. That means the look and feel is slightly different, although the blog navigation is still in the right-hand column.
  3. The static pages still exist and are now linked from the left-hand column.
  4. The short site description and the current quote now appear at the top of the left-hand column.
  5. A few of the old static pages have been sunset; the rest have been revised; and there is some new content.
  6. If you trawl back through all the old blog posts then you’re likely to find some missing images; I’ll correct these as and when the opportunity arises.
  7. Oh, and you may need to update your bookmarks/favourites.

And that’s about it. Everything else should be much the same, and hopefully normal service can resume.