Category Archives: personal

current affairs, personal, ramblings

Horrible Times 6

I’ve now been in lockdown since midday on 12 March, when I got home from my annual diabetic eye check (which I was surprised wasn’t cancelled). That’s 24 days and counting. I thought I’d just make a few brief notes about the good and the not so good recent happenings.

Not So Good

  1. Being in a higher risk category, which brings on fearfulness and self-isolation.
  2. Being unable to do a supermarket shop, because our decent supermarkets are either a bus ride or a taxi ride away (‘cos we don’t drive), and that feels too risky for either of us.
  3. The total inability to book a supermarket delivery, any supermarket delivery. And when you do, 50% of what you order isn’t available.
  4. The almost total absence of some commodities like bread flour and long-life milk.
  5. An inability to sign up for a “veg box” delivery.
  6. The nice sunny weather means I shall have to do some gardening, as much as my back will allow …
  7. … because the garden is untidy and is threatening to get away from us while we can’t get anyone to work on it.
  8. Two (Arab-looking) guys wandering down the road this morning shoulder to shoulder, the younger wearing a mask and talking to his mobile. Totally oblivious to what 6 feet is.
  9. The government’s pathetic response to the crisis: too little, too late; inadequate support for healthcare workers; delayed lockdown; stupidity of expecting herd immunity; inadequate self-isolation advice for the infected; almost complete absence of testing, so they’ve no clue what is actually happening … it goes on …
  10. All of that covered by wall-to-wall rolling TV news (which I’m mostly ignoring).
  11. I’m missing my fortnightly massage: it does keep my damaged back working but it is also enjoyable socially too.
  12. I know I’m not someone who is always out and about, but even so being forced to stay grounded is somewhat wearing.
  13. The inability to rise above (or kill off) all the stupid things I (feel I) have to do so I can sit and relax and read.
  14. A feeling of vulnerability and impending doom. Suddenly one realises one is all too mortal. And I’m unable to get my head round what it’ll be like not to be here, and not to be able to do the things I am doing.
  15. And then one feels like a helpless mesmerised rabbit in the headlights due to the stress and anxiety which feed the depression – rinse and repeat.

Good

  1. All the valiant and heroic NHS people, transport workers, and food supply-chain workers who are putting themselves at risk to help people and keep things moving.
  2. There’s certainly a sense of history: that we’re living through an historic period much like the Black Death (1349) or the Great Plague of London (1665) and beginning (but only beginning) to understand what it must have been like then. Yes that’s macabre, but also interesting and in a way rather fun.
  3. The quiet! It is just so quiet: no traffic noise, no planes in/out of Heathrow, not even many screaming kids. If you added back in a few mooing cows and whinnying horses this must be much like it was 600 years ago.
  4. Add to that the light and air quality. The lack of traffic, planes etc. has really reduced the pollution. The air is fresh, clear and not smelling of diesel and kerosene. And the light is bright, almost with that special clear quality one is used to seeing in East Anglia.
  5. The friend, who despite being an NHS worker with an elderly mum, is helping us by getting the odd few provisions and a bunch of flowers.
  6. One of the supermarkets (which I won’t name) seem to have decided (how?) that I’m on the vulnerable list for deliveries. This could be useful.
  7. Meanwhile Noreen has been able to get to the (pretty rubbish) local shops for the odd essentials.
  8. At the beginning of all this I had managed to book several Waitrose deliveries and have struck lucky with the odd slot ere and there – so we’re doing OK for food.
  9. It’s a lovely warm sunny Spring day today (Sunday) and the week promises to be largely the same. That means the garden is getting green and the apple blossom is coming out.
  10. As of writing this we’re both still healthy.

people, personal, thoughts

Working from Home

Although I’ve been retired for 10 years, I worked from home for most of the last 10 years I was working. And I still work from home on most of my current community give-back activity.

There are now a lot of people around the world who are having to work from home for the first time, and maybe wondering where to start.

There are a lot of website out there which tell you how to work from home, but I have to admit I wouldn’t be finding their hints and tips always very useful – at least initially.

Working from home isn’t rocket science, but it does need a little bit of organising and discipline. Most of it is common sense, but not always obvious common sense. So I thought I’d put together a few of my thoughts in the hope that they may help some of you. Here goes …

Working from home is brilliant … Until the cat throws up on your laptop or your neighbour decides now is the time to rebuild his house (don’t laugh, the latter happened to me!). It won’t be long before you wonder why you ever bothered going in the office.

  1. Basically you need to treat your home workplace up as if it is your regular office.
  2. Have a set workplace. It doesn’t matter whether it is your study, the basement or the kitchen table, as long as it is always the same place. Resist working from your bed or sofa; or in front of the TV. I used to work at my desk in the study; this became my office when I took my laptop out in the morning; and it became mine again when my laptop was put away.
  3. It doesn’t matter whether you get dressed, spend the day in your nightshirt or even nothing, as long as you’re comfortable and aren’t having a videoconference with your group director. However some people feel more professional and work better if they’re wearing reasonable day clothes.

  4. If you’re spending the day in your pyjamas, don’t go out in them! If you need to pop to the corner shop, the post-box or to collect the kids, do please put on jeans and a t-shirt.
  5. Know when to “log on” and “log off”. Try to have a regular start and stop time. If possible use the same schedule as you would in the office; you’ll probably stretch it a bit at both ends but you should still get some extra time to yourself as you’ll not be commuting. I used to start about 8am and stop no later than 6pm. Do not be tempted to either lie-in or keep working into the evening; you can prevent the lie-in by having 9am team conference calls.
  6. On the other hand you do have the flexibility to work when you’re most productive, whether that’s 5am or midnight, although this must not be an excuse to work longer hours. You’ll still need to be available during office hours, so you still need that regular schedule.
  7. Remember, if you’re sick, then you’re sick and shouldn’t be working – just like you wouldn’t go in the office.
  8. Keep to your normal time management method; this will help you keep focus. If you’ve never been taught time management, find an online course and start now. Try to avoid taking a quick break to do the laundry/bath the cat/pop to the supermarket/whatever. It all too easily becomes an hour and a half.
  9. You might want to have a separate phone number for your work – possibly a second mobile. Likewise a separate laptop and email address.
  10. If you don’t have the technology you need (whether it’s a new laptop, or printer, or a piece of software) nag your boss until you get it. Without it you will not be optimally productive.
  11. Communicate, communicate, communicate. In fact, over-communicate. Ensure your boss and your colleagues know you’re there, and you’re being productive. All it needs is the odd phone call, an instant message or two a day, or emailing in that special report you wrote.
  12. Keeping in contact with other humans is allowed – preferably by phone or video, rather than just by email. If nothing else my wife and I talked briefly on the phone at some point most days. Instant messaging can also help a lot, especially if everyone you need to talk to is on the same platform. But voice is best.
  13. Don’t be frightened of phone/video meetings – they’re just like normal meetings, with maybe a bit more discipline, except you can’t spill coffee in Sharon’s lap.
  14. If you’re having a phone/video meeting, remember that you need to circulate any papers in advance by email.
  15. If you’re having a videoconference ensure you know how to share your screen so you can display your visuals and the whiteboard.
  16. Look out of the window. I found I did this quite a bit during 1-2-1 phone calls (and boring teleconferences) and I did quite a lot of garden birdwatching (no, feathered kind!) this way.
  17. In my opinion do not have music on, or the radio, or the TV. Despite what you might think you will concentrate better if it is quiet and there are no distractions. If you must, catch up on TV news at lunchtime.
  18. Do not be tempted to look at social media. I found that easy as I had a separate laptop and mobile phone.
  19. Do take proper breaks; refill your tea/coffee/juice; and go to the loo. Just ration the biscuits!
  20. Also ensure you stop for lunch, if only for 20 minutes. But do not waste time preparing and cooking a meal: either have a soup or sandwich type lunch, or prepare food the night before. This was something I found hard too do; with no-one to sit with at lunch it was too easy to grab some bread and cheese and eat it at my desk.
  21. If there are other people at home with you, set some ground rules, ensure they respect that you’re working, and they know what your routine is. If they’re children, make sure you work out in advance how to keep them amused and out of your hair. Do have joint lunch or breaks, but keep them to a normal length.

Those of you who are seasoned home workers will doubtless not agree with everything I’ve said, and have different things which help you. That’s good. The moral is that ultimately you have to find the way that works best for you – for me that was being totally focussed. YMMV.

medical, personal, ramblings

Horrible Times 1

2 Comments

Over the last weekend I started writing what I hope may become an occasional series of comment/diary entries emanating from the current mess known as Coronavirus. Here’s what I wrote on Sunday (lightly edited).

Sunday 15 March 2020 – Ides of March

This Coronavirus (Covid-19) is getting a grip of everyone. It looks like we’re in for a long haul, and a very messy one. Few of us trust the government’s strategy, which is at total odds with what the rest of the world are doing (except for the USA, and President Trump is an even bigger moron that Boris Johnson). The strategy may protect the over-70s for a bit, meanwhile it will rip through the rest of the population. Then the over-70s will succumb as soon as the restrictions come off, creating a second (and third etc.) wave before we’re near to having any treatment or vaccination options – don’t expect those within a year. Anyway it is now much too late; the genii is out of the bottle and in my estimation has been since probably mid-December (because the first case is now thought to have been in mid-November, but not recognised for what it was). So we needed to impose draconian social distancing measures very early, like back at New Year, if we really were to nip this in the bud.

I’ve already cancelled one of our doctor’s patient group events for this week, and my meeting the same morning with the Practice Manager. More will doubtless follow over the next few days. Others organising events I’m involved with as far ahead as mid-May are discussing cancelling them too.

Unfortunately I’m also minded to cancel my fortnightly massage sessions: not only because it’s a risk to me but also because my masseuse is newly pregnant and others working in the same practice are at significantly high risk. That makes me really sad as I enjoy the massage sessions and the chat, and it does help keep my back going. But we need to consider others in this as well as ourselves.

Amongst all this I’m really frightened and depressed. I’m almost 70 and with diabetes, obesity and sleep apnoea so I’m in a high risk category for serious complications if I do get Covid-19. And if I do I fear that it will kill me – either because my immune system is too compromised or because the hospitals won’t be able to cope and I’ll be a low priority for treatment.

I know the chances of me succumbing to this are relatively small, but that doesn’t make it any less frightening. So I feel my best hope is not to get this and be around long enough for either a good treatment or a vaccine.

But then I’m worried too that Noreen will fall ill. She’s not far behind me in age and she does have a long-term hereditary condition, although that doesn’t seem to affect either her immune system or lungs. Indeed her immune system, hitherto, has been so good it keeps many things under: she’s a Typhoid Mary. If Noreen does fall off her perch before me I know I shall be absolutely sunk: not because I can’t do what has to be done (although that may not be easy) but mentally; the depression will be completely overwhelming. Equally I know Noreen will struggle without me.

But what can we do? Both of us being risk averse as we are we’re inclined to behave as if we’re over 70, and self-isolate as much as we possibly can. Luckily we can (for now, at least) get grocery deliveries – not ideal but OK – and we have the reserves we built up against Brexit to help.

Even before all this I was beginning to feel my mortality and realising that I likely have only a few more years. The thought of not being here leaves me feeling deeply sad and almost terminally helpless. I’m starting to understand how, in his last years, my father just gave up the will to keep going.

It’s also interesting to start to really appreciate how frightening in must have been for people during the Black Death of 1348-9, the Plague of 1665, and the Spanish Flu of 1918-19; especially given that they really didn’t understand how any of this worked and what they could do to mitigate the diseases. In that sense at least we stand half a chance.

Please stay safe everyone!

people, personal

Father at 100

Today my late father would have been 100. Unfortunately he died in May 2006 at the age of 86. He was surprised to make 86.

He was about 67 when my parents moved from my childhood home in Waltham Cross to the outskirts of Norwich – somewhere my father unexpectedly found he didn’t like. I don’t recall my mother ever saying what she thought – she was one to just get on and make the best of what was there – but Noreen and I were delighted as we both love Norwich.

He didn’t expect that he and my mother would have more than a few years there. So they made their bungalow comfortable, but he admitted later that had he known they’d have almost 20 years left they would have done a number of things to adapt the bungalow more to their liking. This, plus the fact that he never adjusted to having a stoma following bowel cancer surgery in his late 70s, made his last few years exceptionally miserable.

In many ways Bob was a “miserable old git” who believed that life and everyone were out to get him and his money. If there was a negative take on anything, he’d be right there. Whether this was because he was depressive, or vice versa, or both, I’ve never worked out. His depression could have been partly genetic as his father was also depressive; and his fairly awful childhood through the depression preceding WW2 would only have exacerbated it all.

Probably because he’d never been allowed to achieve academically, despite being able, in retrospect he put a lot of covert pressure to succeed on me as a kid. This, together with the depression and general angst, left me with a very negative attitude and has doubtless contributed to my depression. Luckily I managed, in my 40s, to somehow (I still don’t know how) to a large extent overcome the negativity and let much of the annoyances and stupidities of life just wash over me.

Me (centre) with my parents in the early 1980s

Bob also viewed me as profligate, lacking in common sense and a failure – because his values and common sense didn’t match mine as I beat my own path through life: I didn’t get a proper academic job, refused to be a teacher and sold out to the commercial world.

Having said that he was clearly loved when he worked, for a few years in the early 70s, as a personnel manager, and went out of his way to support his staff – even in one case where one of his junior staff got pregnant out of wedlock and he gave her support against both her parents and his colleagues. In that sense he was quite progressive – indeed my parents were decidedly bohemian, as evidenced by the fact that they lived together for two years following the war while my mother’s divorce was settled. And that I was encouraged to call them, and anyone else, by their first names.

I also have to appreciate that I was encouraged (by both parents) to read, to think, to know about history, and to understand natural history and the environment. There were books in almost every room when I was growing up, and none were off-limits. I recall he bought Lady Chatterley’s Lover as soon as it became available; I read it in my very early teens and found it terminally boring. There was also a copy of Havelock Ellis on the living room shelves, which I devoured at 16/17 when I had my first serious girlfriend.

I’ve never quite forgiven Bob for the effect of his overriding negativity on me, and the constraints (I felt were) placed on me as a kid; although I recognise that he was doing the best he knew how, and I am extremely grateful for the very open, liberal and bohemian upbringing. All of this clearly shaped me, and once I managed to throw off the worst of the negativity, has made me the slightly maverick thinker I like to believe I am today.

Happy birthday Bob, wherever you are!

personal, photography

A Birthday Present

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Having had a birthday recently, I bought myself a present. As as one of my aims for this year is to do more photography I bought an expensive new camera: a Canon EOS 90D and three lenses (plus some bits & pieces), to replace my ageing Olympus E620. The Canon’s a beast of a 32 megapixel camera with far more facilities than I’ll ever understand, let alone use – although it’s going to be interesting trying.

Of course having got the camera it has had to be tested. So here are the first four serious shots I’ve taken with it: of our cats, of course.

Click the images for larger views

Boy cat washing paws
Boy cat looking astonished:
just look at those curly whiskers!
Rosie trying to charm tea from the food provider
Tilly looking cute and trying to doze

Now all I have to do is to get out and get my money’s-worth from such an extravagance! So hopefully more images to come during the year. And possibly a photographic 100 day challenge.

amusements, personal

Birthday Meme

So today is “Happy Birthday to Me” day and here’s the traditional birthday meme. Enjoy!

  1. Have you ever been camping? Yes, many times, although not since my teens.
  2. What terrifies you? Dementia; cancer.
  3. Do you like makeup? Not a lot, which is why I never wear any.
  4. What piercings do you have? One, somewhere you don’t want to know about!
  5. Do you fear thunder and lightning? No; thunderstorms are fun.
  6. Do you feel you had a happy childhood? No, I didn’t have a happy childhood, for all sorts of reasons.
  7. Do you go to church every Sunday? No. It’s probably almost 40 years since I went to church on a Sunday.
  8. Do you go in a fast food place or just use the drive thru? Neither; I don’t do fast food.
  9. Do you use the word “hello” daily? Who doesn’t?
  10. Do you like to wear perfume/cologne? No, but I do sometimes wear aftershave.
  11. Have you ever slept with someone at least 5 years older or younger? Yes, she was 9 years older than me (32 to my 23); I learnt a lot and it was fun.
  12. What would you name your future children? Nebuchadnezzar PearDrop and Nefertiti CherryPie. (Oh come on! You mean you didn’t expect a stupid answer?)
  13. Do you wear glasses/contacts? Yes, I’ve worn glasses since I was about 14 and I’ve never wanted to switch to lenses.
  14. Do you have a creed? Yes: “Treat others as you would like them to treat you”.
  15. Do you hold grudges? I try not to; I can think of only two which are mostly still there; both are over 40 years old.
  16. Which are better black or green olives? Both are good; black are better.
  17. Do you have any strange fears? Not that I can think of.
  18. Do you have any strange interests? Don’t think I have any of them either.
  19. Are you envious of anyone? Not really, and certainly not in an overwhelming way.
  20. Is anyone envious of you? I’d say they were fools if they were.
  21. Any specific textures that bother you? The fuzz on peach skin.
  22. Do you ever go barefoot when you’re outside? Yes, quite often in the garden or on the beach.
  23. Can you say the alphabet backwards? Of course.
  24. Favourite pair of shoes you wear all the time? Yes, although I don’t wear shoes often these days, mostly trainers. But I’ve worn the same pair of Clarks deck shoes for well over 10 years (I had them ages before I retired); they’re just so comfortable.
  25. Do you believe in ghosts? Probably maybe.
  26. Do you wear rings? Yes, six of various sorts.
  27. How would you describe your style? Haphazard casual.
  28. What would you say if the person you love/like kissed another girl/boy? Why would I need to say anything? Why comment on something perfectly normal?
  29. Have you ever been in a car accident? Yes, four. Luckily none of them serious. And, no I wasn’t driving (‘cos I don’t).
  30. Are you very sensitive to smell? I have quite a good sense of smell, but it isn’t sensitive in that there are lots of smells it it recoils from other than ordure.
  31. Do you believe in aliens? Possibly maybe.
  32. What’s your most common mistake? Being truthful; people really don’t like it!
  33. When was the last time you had a portrait taken by a photographer? Laura Dodsworth, October 2016.
  34. Have you ever sat on a roof top? Yes, quite a few times.
  35. Do you like going on airplanes? Yes, I quite like the actual flight (though I used not to) but I hate all the airport hassles.
  36. Do you ever write in pencil any more? Old programmers always write in pencil.
  37. Do you like to organize? I suppose so, I just do it naturally.
  38. Dinosaurs or dragons? Always dragons.
  39. Do you believe in god(s)? No.
  40. Have you ever laid on your back and watched cloud shapes go by? Many times.
  41. Can you curl your tongue? No; that’s a gene I didn’t inherit.
  42. Opinions on sex before marriage? Where’s the problem?
  43. Have you ever been handcuffed? No.
  44. What do you label yourself as? Village idiot.
  45. How did you get your worst scar? Appendectomy in my late 20s; I think they let the trainees loose on me: huge scar and big blanket stitches to close it.
  46. Do you take vitamins daily? Only vitamin D.
  47. Do you have freckles? No.
  48. Have you ever been to a strip club? No; why would I?
  49. Do you believe in auras? I don’t know; they seem incredibly unlikely but then so do so many things.
  50. An angel appears out of heaven and offers you a lifetime supply of the alcoholic beverage of your choice. “Be brand-specific” it says. What are you going to choose? Adnams Dry Hopped Lager or Adnams Ghost Ship.

I must find something a bit more exciting for next year (assuming the Kindly Ones permit me to continue to exist that long).

personal

My Twelve Things To Do in 2020

As most years I’ve looked at some of the things I wanted to do last year and what I would like to achieve over the coming year – the former does, of course, influence the latter. Some are repeats (or near repeats) of items from last year – mostly because I failed and want to try again; but some because I just want to do it again! Some could turn out to be (relatively) easy; others are going to be harder.

This year I’ve tried to be much tighter in how I define things. I’ve tried to ensure that they are all SMART: specific, measurable, achievable, relevant and time-bound. Nonetheless they are more “wish list” than real objectives, so failure is acceptable if not desired.

So in some very vague priority order here are …

My Twelve Things To Do in 2020

  1. Reduce my HbA1c to 50 or below
  2. Get involved with PCN and CCG PPGs
  3. Have a monthly day out
  4. Do something not done before
  5. Go somewhere not been before
  6. Spend at least 4 hours a month taking photographs
  7. Family history: validate my mother’s work on Cullingworth/Coker line
  8. Be drawn/painted/photographed nude (by someone not family)
  9. Visit the Vagina Museum
  10. (Re)visit Brightwell Baldwin & Berrick Salome
  11. Revisit Hardingstone, Geddington, Earl’s Barton
  12. Be nude whenever possible & comfortable (home & elsewhere)

Remember, these are things I’m trying to do; they aren’t absolutes which must be achieved. So while I will be disappointed not to achieve them it will not be a disciplinary matter – yet.

I will, of course, report back this time next year, should the Kindly Ones continue to allow.

amusements, current affairs, personal, ramblings

Predictions for 2020

Once again this year I’ve retrieved my crystal ball from the back of the wardrobe and dusted it off. However it becomes cloudier by the day so despite regular consultations over the last month what follows are my guesses at what may happen during 2020.

As before, I’ve divided the predictions into sections: UK, World and Personal. I figured that Brexit is now so likely to happen that it is “business as usual” and doesn’t warrant its own section. Note also that various items are currently redacted (although I have them documented) as some might consider them over-sensitive.

Disclaimer. I remind you that these are just my ideas of what could happen; they’re based solely on hunches and gut feel; I have no inside knowledge, I haven’t been studying the form, and I have a success rate of about 20%. So if you base any decision on any of this I will take no responsibility for your wanton act of idiocy or its consequences.

UK

  1. Look out for natural disasters around 9-10/02 (snow), 9-10/03, 7-8/04 (very wet Easter), 6-7/05 (financial crash) (all of these dates are moon at perigee and full).
    Also 30-31/10 (plane crash) (moon is at apogee, full and a Blue Moon).
  2. Penumbral lunar eclipse (visible in London) 10/01, 05/06, 05/07, 30/11 may also presage problems.
  3. UK leaves EU on 31/01: UK will not request a further extension and anyway the EU wouldn’t grant it.
    Leave deal will be unsatisfactory (basically the deal of 10/2019, passed due to Tory majority in the new parliament) containing many Henry VIII clauses (many of which will be abused before YE).
  4. Government cannot agree a trade deal with EU by YE.
    If the EU proposes an extension beyond YE 2020 the UK government will refuse it, thus cementing a total “no deal” Brexit.
  5. Boris Johnson continues to believe in unicorns and will ride out the economic turmoil following Brexit.
  6. Corbin is replaced as Labour Leader by a woman; possibly one of Yvette Cooper, Stella Creasy, Angela Eagle, Angela Rayner. (Predicted before the runners and riders are declared.)
  7. Despite attempts by UK and Ireland, the parties in Ulster are unable to agree a power sharing administration.
  8. There’s a move to reunite Ireland as the post-Brexit border is unworkable.
    This could stimulate Sinn Féin take their seats at Westminster to try to push through the reunification.
  9. Scotland is denied an independence referendum in 2020 by Westminster and fails to get a Supreme Court ruling in it’s favour.
    The SNP will build resentment against Westminster in order to win elections (and maybe a referendum) in 2021/22.
  10. Increasing calls for reform of electoral system (to some form of proportional representation) but they’re continually blocked by the government who implement boundary changes to cement their position.
  11. HS2 gets the go-ahead and a feasibility study into extensions to Edinburgh/Glasgow and Cardiff.
  12. Fracking is allowed to restart.
  13. Sadiq Khan wins a second term as London Mayor – but only just.
  14. Nigel Farage gets a peerage; John Bercow, Kenneth Clarke and Dominic Grieve do not.
  15. Appointees to the Supreme Court (eg. the replacement for Lady Hale) are seen as being clearly political appointees, rather than appropriate legals.
  16. Because of the economic turmoil the UK is in recession by YE.
    Unemployment hits 10%.
    Bank of England Interest Rate returns to 0%.
  17. Sterling plummets against dollar and Euro following the UK’s exit from the EU.
  18. Inflation rises to at least 10% by YE, mainly due to large cost increases in the food industry and hospitality sector.
  19. FTSE falls 10% cf. start of year – due to Brexit and the financial crash.
  20. Financial crash, probably in early May, with the possibility that a bank will fail.
  21. S&P and/or Moody’s downgrade UK creditworthiness by two levels.
  22. Mortgage interest rates hit 10% before YE.
    Average UK house prices fall by at least 10%.
    Repossessions double.
  23. Pensions (private & state) are compulsorily frozen.
  24. Drug prices double as the US buys up the NHS.
    Prescription charges are extended to everyone with no exemptions.
  25. Either ASDA or Morrison’s fails or is taken over; Debenhams finally fails.
    Major problems for M&S and/or John Lewis – a partnership between the two looks likely.
  26. Major drug/alcohol or fraud/fixing issue uncovered in one or more of UK athletics, rugby, cricket.
  27. Extinction Rebellion fizzles out.
  28. Diane Abbott and Theresa May are diagnosed with long-term illnesses.
  29. Magnitude 4 or greater earthquake somewhere in UK.
  30. At least 200 deaths in illegal migration attempts to the UK.
  31. Plans announced to replace the Thames Barrier; work to start 2025 and complete 2040.
  32. Announcement that London congestion charge zone will be expanded out to N & S Circulars in 2025/6.
  33. Relatively mild wet January/February followed by a cold wet spring & summer thus ensuring a poor fruit and grain harvest.
  34. Death of the Queen and Prince Philip.
    Possibly also Prince Charles, in an accident.
    William becomes King by YE.
  35. Other Deaths: Edwina Currey, Gordon Brown, a royal duke, Kenneth Clarke, Jeffrey Archer, Dennis Skinner, Lord Heseltine, Lord Gowrie.

World

  1. Trump wins 2020 Presidential election due to Democrat dissent over their candidate.
  2. Saudi Arabia drastically cuts oil exports amid internecine turmoil.
  3. Zimbabwe finally succumbs to outright civil war which spills over into South Africa.
  4. South American countries descend further into right-wing government.
  5. Rate of Amazonian deforestation increases.
    Global temperature and CO2 emissions continue to rise.
    The COP26 climate talks in Glasgow (in November) end in disagreement and failure.
  6. Major violence (civil war?) in Turkey.
  7. Violent uprising continues in Hong Kong and India.
  8. Russia annexes one of the Baltic states.
  9. Big solar geomagnetic storm causes major breakdown of satellites and infrastructure, probably across North America but possibly elsewhere.
  10. Collision between two operational satellites (maybe as a result of geomagnetic storm).
  11. Boeing Starliner and Space X Crew Dragon both launch crewed capsules.
    One of them fails with loss of the crew.
  12. At least one other major space mission fails.
  13. Magnitude 7 or greater earthquake in California and another in Peru.
  14. Greta Thunberg is burnt out and sinks out of sight to complete her education.
  15. At least one major global IT company fails (or is saved only by a takeover).
    Also a major airline and a shipping line.
  16. Major plane crash in western Europe – possibly France – possibly controlled flight into terrain.
  17. Ebola flares again in central Africa.
  18. Significant new disease emerges (as MERS and SARS did); concern at possible pandemic.
  19. Number of western countries ban vaping or include it in their anti-smoking regulations.
  20. Amazon and/or Facebook is involved in a major anti-trust or privacy law suit.
  21. Deaths: Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Dalai Lama, Angela Merkel, Bill Gates, Rupert Murdoch.

Personal

  1. Personal (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
  2. Neighbours1 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
  3. Neighbours2: [[REDACTED]]
  4. Neighbours3: [[REDACTED]]
  5. Local Community1 (a), (b), (c): [[REDACTED]]
  6. Local Community2 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
  7. Local Community3: [[REDACTED]]
  8. Friends1 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
  9. Friends2 (a), (b), (c): [[REDACTED]]
  10. Friends3: [[REDACTED]]
  11. Friends4 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
  12. Friends5 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
  13. Friends6: [[REDACTED]]
  14. Friends7: [[REDACTED]]
  15. Deaths: 11 named individuals [[REDACTED]]

These have all been redacted as the content is bound to be sensitive to people I know, however they are documented in my files and will be reported on at the end of the year.

Obviously I shall keep a tally and will publish the results at the end of the year. Let’s hope I do better this year than I have over the last several?

I’m conscious that much of the above will be in people’s “bad news” category. So this year I intend to also log good news stories. Good news is, of course, a rather flexible concept as it depends on one’s values of “Good” and “News”. The stories I log will therefore be ones which meet or exceed my personal, flexible and arbitrary values of Good and News. Hopefully there’ll be a list at the end of the year.

amusements, current affairs, personal, ramblings

Predictions for 2019: The Results

This time last year I made a series of predictions about what would happen during 2019. So what did I get right, and what wrong?
[Some of the items remain redacted to protect the sensitive and innocent.]

UK (Brexit)

Most of these predictions stand or fall on the outcome of the first two.

  1. Despite all the clamour, there will not be a second referendum on Brexit, and even if there is the result will still be Leave. CORRECT
  2. Parliament will not be able to agree the negotiated deal so Britain leaves the EU on 29 March with no deal, no fall-back plan, and no “implementation period”. WRONG as Brexit was delayed, twice.
  3. All trade stops as it is discovered that WTO rules cannot be applied instantly and easily. Resolution takes at least 3 months. WRONG.
  4. A hard border has to be implemented in Ireland almost overnight and is accomplished only by using troops. WRONG.
  5. There’s surprise that airlines cannot fly in/out of UK, and this badly affects food/medicine supply. WRONG.
  6. There are delays of up to a week (ie. that’s how long trucks have to queue) to get goods in/out to Europe via the seaports. Troops are required to manage the flow of trucks. WRONG.
  7. UK economy is in recession by mid-year. WRONG; although it was close towards the latter part of the year.
  8. Food and medicine supply issues are biting hard by end April as stocks run low and imports are almost impossible. There won’t be rationing but there will be significantly empty supermarket shelves. WRONG.
  9. There’s no insulin available by end May. Lack of insulin and other diabetes drugs results in 5K excess deaths during the year and another 5K avoided only due to an increased rate of amputations. The NHS estimate that a further 50K have unnecessary adverse events. WRONG.
  10. Due to import issues prices rise sharply and inflation hits 20% but stabilises to 5% by year-end. WRONG; inflation fell to 1.5% in November.
  11. Bank base rate is reduced to 0% as the banking sector is unable to do business/make money. Most savings rates are 0% while the mortgage rate rises to at least 10% resulting in an increase of repossessions. WRONG.
  12. House prices fall by 20-30%. WRONG; in October (latest data available) year-on-year house prices were up 0.8%.
  13. At some point during the year £1 will be worth no more than $0.90, and €0.90 (although not necessarily at the same time). CORRECT (just!); in July we got to £1=€0.85 at some UK airports.
  14. Moody’s downrate UK credit rating by at least two notches. WRONG; to my surprise.
  15. Despite this the FTSE100 ends the year up 10%. CORRECT; FTSE100 was up just over 12% at close on 31/12.

UK (Other)

  1. This is a year of trouble, unrest and pigeons coming home to roost – not all caused by Brexit but often due to incompetence and/or poor planning. Good news is in very short supply. CORRECT; see inter alia school kids striking for climate change, Extinction Rebellion, and many demonstrations about Brexit.
  2. Theresa May resigns as PM, possibly due to ill health. CORRECT.
  3. Andrea Leadsom becomes PM and appoints Jacob Rees-Mogg as Chancellor, with Boris Johnson as Deputy PM. WRONG.
  4. Ulster sectarian troubles boil over again; multiple shootings / bombings by both sides. CORRECT; but not as much as I feared.
  5. Labour Party adopts an official policy to re-unify Ireland. WRONG.
  6. TfL is declared bankrupt, causing chaos for London travellers. The government refuses to provide a bail-out. This results in many redundancies, pruned services and upgrade projects, and protracted strike action. WRONG.
  7. Work on Crossrail is paused, and the opening delayed to 2021. The Emirates Dangleway will close. Crossrail 2 is postponed by at least 3 years. CORRECT about Crossrail which will not now open until “sometime in 2021”. WRONG about the Dangleway. No good clues about Crossrail 2.
  8. HS2 is cut back due to lack of funding. Heathrow Third Runway is also delayed due to lack of money. Hinkley C nuclear power station development is cancelled. CORRECT about Heathrow Runway 3 which will be delayed from 2026 to maybe as late as 2029. WRONG about HS2 and Hinkley Point C.
  9. There’s a murder on my street. WRONG.
  10. The Sussex’s baby [REDACTED] will be named Diana or Iris (if a girl); Robert or David (if a boy). WRONG.
  11. A reintroduced wolf or lynx kills a human. WRONG.
  12. Beavers are found to be colonising the upper reaches of the Thames basin. No-one knows (or will admit to) how they got there. WRONG.
  13. A feral big cat (probably lynx or puma) is conclusively confirmed somewhere in the UK; it may be captured or shot to confirm the identification. WRONG; there were the usual purported sightings but no conclusive evidence.
  14. Major terrorist attack somewhere in UK (probably London) kills 50 including a high profile politician or minor royal. PARTLY CORRECT; the major UK incident seems to have been the London Bridge attack with two, plus attacker, dead.
  15. The country lurches even further towards pervasive surveillance and a police state with troops, and openly armed police, regularly on the streets in major conurbations. WRONG.
  16. At least one train crash and one plane crash; each with 20 dead. WRONG.
  17. A rail franchise will fail and have to be taken back into public ownership. WRONG.
  18. A major hospital (in England) fails and closes unexpectedly. WRONG.
  19. At least three major companies (possibly including a bank/building society and a supermarket) fail; 1000 job losses each. CORRECT: Patisserie Valerie, Jamie Oliver’s restaurants, Thomas Cook, Wrightbus, Mothercare.
  20. Deaths: Bill Turnbull, Tariq Ali, George Monbiot, David Jason, Derek Jacobi, Richard Branson, Leslie Phillips, Prince Philip, another Royal Duke/Prince. WRONG on all counts.

World

  1. Anthropologists discover that an isolated tribe (probably in Africa; possibly pygmies) is not Homo sapiens but another hominin species. WRONG.
  2. DNA recovered from ancient hominin teeth totally changes our current understanding of human evolution. WRONG; although with the apparent discovery that people were in Australia much earlier than thought this might have been quite close.
  3. Astronomers identify another extra-solar system “asteroid” visitor (like ‘Oumuamua) and prove this one is an alien spacecraft, although it appears to be dead. PARTLY CORRECT; another alien visitor has been found but it’s an asteroid.
  4. The upgraded LIGO experiment fails to reproduce its previous detection of gravitational waves, throwing whole areas of physics into turmoil. WRONG.
  5. There will be significant damage to ISS which forces its abandonment and a long pause in manned space-flight. WRONG.
  6. Donald Trump is confirmed to be suffering from a mild form of dementia, but is ruled as still fit to govern. WRONG.
  7. CO2 emissions rise by at least 5% year-on-year in US, India and China. INCONCLUSIVE; although China was reported to be 4% up in 1H2019, there’s too little easily available data to judge.
  8. In a petulant move, Russia cuts off gas supply to Europe for at least three months. WRONG.
  9. The global average temperature for the year is at least 1°C above the long-term average. PARTLY CORRECT and it’s going to be very close; YtD data for November shows land+ocean temperature 0.94°C above the long-term average; land only 1.39°C; ocean only 0.77°C.
  10. There’s a disease pandemic – cause currently unknown, but not flu, Ebola or Zika. WRONG.
  11. There’s an outbreak of Ebola in South America; plus 6 cases in UK, not all imported. WRONG; just more Ebola in Africa.
  12. Major terrorist attacks in western world: 1 in USA and 2 in other places; combined deaths 250. PARTLY CORRECT; several attacks, most notably New Zealand with 51 deaths, El Paso, Texas 22 dead.
  13. More die in mass shootings in USA this year than in 2018. CORRECT; according to Wikipedia 486 deaths in 2019 cf. 387 in 2018.
  14. Saudi Arabia annexes one or more of UAE, Dubai, Kuwait. WRONG.
  15. A Chinese warship fires at a US Navy vessel in the South China Sea; this may be the start of a US/China war in the area. WRONG.
  16. MH370 is found by accident in waters between Australia, Papua New Guinea and East Timor. One of the black boxes is recovered. WRONG.
  17. At least one round the world sailor is lost at sea and never found (although the deserted yacht is found). WRONG.
  18. There are three major transport accidents (plane/train/cruise liner/ferry) each with 100 deaths. PARTLY CORRECT; Ethiopian airliner crash with 157 dead, Iraqi ferry with about 100 dead, Pakistan train crash with 73+ dead; plus an Aeroflot plane crash (41 dead), Cairo train fire (25 dead), Chilean plane crash (38 dead).
  19. There’s a major earthquake (around magnitude 8) along the Himalayas which causes widespread destruction in Tibet, Nepal and Bhutan with thousands of deaths. As a result the summit of Mt Everest is 1m lower. WRONG.
  20. Deaths: Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Robert Mugabe, Pope Emeritus Benedict, Elon Musk, a major European politician. CORRECT about Mugabe. WRONG about the rest.

Personal

  1. In family history, I finally unlock the brick wall in my Marshall line in mid-18th century, although I then get stuck at about 1700. WRONG.
  2. Family. [REDACTED] PARTLY CORRECT.
  3. Personal. I’m diagnosed with BPH (possibly low grade cancer) but surgery not required. WRONG.
  4. Doctors. [REDACTED] CORRECT on one item. WRONG about the other two.
  5. Friends 1. [REDACTED] WRONG.
  6. Friends 2. [REDACTED] WRONG about the first part. CORRECT about the second part.
  7. Friends 3. [REDACTED] WRONG.
  8. Friends 4. [REDACTED] WRONG.
  9. My total lottery winnings for the year are less than £50. WRONG, but still less than £200.
  10. Deaths. [REDACTED] WRONG; of 14 people listed, two died in 2018 (unknown to me when making the predictions) and the other 12 are still on life as far as I am aware.

That is an absolutely pathetic hit rate for which I deserve to be sacked – lucky I’m not a football manager!

Tomorrow I’ll post my predictions for 2020. Watch this space.

personal

My 2019 in Summary

Traditionally at this time I look back at my achievements and engagement (or, more accurately the lack of it) over the past year.

At the risk of having a stuck record, it’s been a strange year with significant amounts of work and depression which obstinately refuses to lift even during the summer months. This has meant a number of things have been binned along the way (or just ignored), which overall means I don’t feel I’ve achieved anything much, at least by my exacting standards. So here’s the summary …

At the beginning of the year I posted 10 Things I Want To Do in 2019. The results are in and I’ve done appallingly badly this year.

  1. Reduce waste/rubbish/clutter and recycle as much as possible. DONE; although not enough clutter cleared.
  2. Do something not done before and go somewhere not been before. DONE; hit both in one go by attending a garden party at Buckingham Palace. I also made a trip to look at the Eleanor Crosses at Hardingstone and Geddington.
  3. Spend less money. FAIL; if for no other reason than we did a lot of work on the house, and had to replace a significant amount of technology.
  4. Have a monthly day out. FAIL; I think we managed 4 or 5.
  5. Regular meditation. FAIL; tried but just unable to make it stick.
  6. Do a bigger share of the cooking and shopping. FAIL; this one largely down to the depression rather than a lack of will.
  7. Get back to taking more photographs. FAIL; depression again, and the lack of days out.
  8. Be drawn/painted/photographed nude (by someone not family). FAIL; I wasn’t at all sure this was likely to be achieved.
  9. Do more family history; unlock the mid-18th century block in Marshall line. FAIL; did quite a bit of family history in the first part of the year but then tailed off; and have been totally unable to breach that brick wall.
  10. Increase/develop teamwork between our GP practice and the patient group. FAIL; I keep chipping away at this but the doctors won’t take the bait.

OMG! That a miserable 2/10. That is a bad, bad year! Or was I too overambitious? No, it was a bad year!

Looking at the year through the usual 25 questions is a bit more of a mixed bag …

1. What did you do that you’d never done before?
a. Attended a Buckingham Palace Garden Party.
b. Had posh afternoon tea at London’s Rubens Hotel.
c. Celebrated our 40th wedding anniversary.

2. Did you keep your new year’s resolutions, and will you make more for next year?
How can I keep something I never did?

3. What would you like to have in 2020 that you lacked in 2019?
Health, wealth and wisdom; peace and tranquility.

4. What dates from 2019 will remain etched upon your memory?
a. Wednesday 15 May: Buckingham Palace Garden Party.
b. Wednesday 9 October: Trip to Hardingstone & Geddington.
c. Monday 4 November: Tea at the Rubens Hotel.

5. Did you suffer illness or injury?
No, nothing new this year!

6. What was the best thing you bought?
Tom to do more decorating.
Champagne.

7. Where did most of your money go?
Into other people’s pockets.

8. What did you get really, really excited about?
Nothing. No not even going to Buckingham Palace. I don’t do excitement, just like I don’t do panic and crisis.

9. Compared to this time last year, are you:
a. happier or sadder? Sadder; it’s the depression.
b. thinner or fatter? Maybe very slightly thinner.
c. richer or poorer? Definitely poorer due to all the work on the house.

10. What do you wish you’d done more of?
Sitting in the sun in the garden.

11. What do you wish you’d done less of?
Staring at a computer screen.

12. What was your biggest achievement of the year?
Surviving.
Getting the proceedings of the 2018 Anthony Powell Conference published – and mighty fine they are too!

13. What was your biggest failure?
The depression.
Not drinking more champagne.

14. How many one-night stands?
Zero.

15. What was your favourite TV program?
I’ve watched hardly any TV all year – it is such a load of garbage. So yet again the pick has to be the RI Christmas Lectures.

16. What was the best book you read?
Jen Gunter; The Vagina Bible
Anthony Powell, King Arthur and Other Personages

17. What did you want and get?
New PC and new mobile phone – isn’t that just so sad!

18. What did you want and not get?
I’m still waiting for that big lottery win.

19. What one thing would have made your year immeasurably more satisfying?
a. Cancellation of Brexit.
b. That big lottery win.

20. How would you describe your personal fashion concept in 2019?
Distressed casual.

21. What kept you sane?
Nothing – I’m beyond redemption.

22. Who did you miss?
My mother.

23. Tell us a valuable life lesson you learned in 2019:
Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large numbers.

24. A quote or song lyric that sums up your year:
“You bustle around tutting and narrowing your eyes, in the manner of a dog territorially pissing on a lamppost.”
[Emma Beddington]

25. Your hopes for 2020
Cancellation of Brexit – well no-one said it had to be realistic.

Overall Result: STILL REQUIRES MUCH IMPROVEMENT

But enough of me. How was your 2019? And what are your hopes for 2020?