Category Archives: personal

amusements, personal, ramblings

The Village. Preface

One sleepless night near the beginning of the year, I was playing a mental game of naming things to do with (or names of) an arbitrary subject: countries, lakes, forests, or whatever occurred. Of course this had to be an A to Z, something for each letter, and in order. Like the traditional children’s game: “A is for Aardvark, B is for Bullfrog … Z is for Zanzibar”.

This particular night I thought of “things to do with a tree” and had a mature oak tree as a guiding picture. In doing this I found myself making some of the choices a bit more descriptive – not just a jay, but a jay burying acorns. Then, over a couple of nights, some rhymes got added. This developed into a full verse of 13 rhyming couplets – a fairly droll technique, but one which worked and which wasn’t too hard in the darkness of the night when attempting to induce slumber.

A few nights later I chanced upon the village pond as a subject, and again found rhyming couplets emerging. So then I wondered if I could make a full 13 rhyming couplets: yes I could even if some were initially rather contrived.

Now remember that at this point nothing was written down, or even spoken aloud; it was all in my head. But I went on to wonder if I could construct a whole village, one set of 13 couplets at a time.

Out of this emerged about a dozen, rather ragged and very incomplete, verses on different aspects of an imaginary village. Over a period of two to three weeks I began to write this down and to refine it, discarding some verses which didn’t gel and complete, and ending with eight complete verses.

At this point, I showed Noreen who professed to like it and thought it should see the light of day. So over the next few weeks The Village – A Story in Eight Pieces will appear here, one verse at a time.

Piece Publication
I. Introduction and Allegro 30 March
II. Village People 6 April
III. The Church of St George 13 April
IV. The Village Stores 19 April
V. The Sun Inn 26 April
VI. The Duck Pond 4 May
VII. More Village People 11 May
VIII. King George’s Oak 18 May

The project may not be complete. I have some ideas for a few further verses should inspiration strike, and there is also very draft sketch map of the village. We shall see if they ever emerge fully formed.

And to think, it all started with a sleepless night and an imaginary tree.

Piece I will appear on Tuesday 30 March.

current affairs, medical, personal, ramblings

Horrible Times 20: One Year!

Midday today marked exactly 365 days of, partly self-imposed, isolation. What a strange year it’s been! Who could have guessed it would be thus. In the last 365 days:

  • I’ve been off the premises just four times. Twice to go to the dentist. Once for a flu jab and blood test. And most recently for my first Covid vaccination.
  • Noreen has done a little better in that she’s been making forays to the postbox and occasionally the post office.
  • I’ve generally been well. That’s apart from the depression which is, if anything, worse – but then who’s surprised about that?! But it does make motivating oneself to do anything a struggle. It hasn’t been helped by my back and a lot of tension across my neck and shoulders; unrelieved as I’ve not been able to get any massage.
  • However Noreen has had a nasty cellulitis infection and shingles. The former required many trips to the hospital.
  • We’ve been totally dependent on online shopping, and luckily have had no problems with supermarket delivery slots (except in the very early days when things were being sorted out). Everyone in the food supply chain has been doing heroic work through all this.
  • And we’ve been using our supermarket deliveries to also get provisions for our friend across the road, who is also isolating.
  • We’ve both managed to get our first Covid vaccination – something which wasn’t even a possibility this time last year. And we’ve been mightily impressed with the way the NHS has coped with all this. We await jab number two.
  • We’ve lost my aunt (to Covid, although aged 90 and with dementia), and three or four friends (apparently not to Covid). How odd are “Zoom funerals”?!
  • Needless to say face-to-face meetings and events have not happened. We’ve managed to continue some over Zoom, which is not a problem for me as I’ve been used to teleconference meetings since before the millennium.
  • We’ve added some extra, informal, meetings for our doctor’s patient group (of which I’m Chairman) just to enable people to keep in touch and have some additional social contact.
  • Meanwhile the house is a disgusting rat’s nest – which really doesn’t help the depression. When Covid struck we were trying to dredge the accumulated silt of 40 years, three parents, two jobs, and voluntary work. That has stalled, mainly because we cannot shift stuff out of the house: charity shops are closed and not taking donations, and without transport we can’t get anything to the tip.
  • The garden is pretty much a wreck. Although we managed to keep it roughly in order last summer, without our regular gardener the winter maintenance and pruning has gone by the board. The lawn is a meadow which comes half way up our fox. Besides it is so wet out there (yet more rain as I write this) the ground is like jelly, which makes working on it impossible.
  • On the good side, we’re both still plugged into life supply.
  • And we’ve been able to have some good food and wine – something we’ve made sure we do more of to add a little joy to the misery.

So what happens next?

The government is clearly keeping its fingers crossed and hoping for the best. Meanwhile everyone is expecting the worst with the medical experts warning:

All in all I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re still in this same position a year hence. It will be immensely depressing and disheartening, but I wouldn’t find it surprising. This, of course, assumes we’re still receiving supplies of life force!

Jolly times!

current affairs, personal

Horrible Times 18: Day 350

Today is Day 350 of my lockdown. We’re rapidly approaching a year of detention, and it seems pretty certain we’ll make the full year.

No checklist of good/not so good things this time, and this is the briefest of reports. Why?

Because basically nothing changes. We still have the same patheticly incompetent government. And the same NHS which is doing heroic work despite the government’s attempts otherwise.

There’s no real news on the home front since my last report. Again everything muddles on much as for the previous 350 days.

The only significant change is that both Noreen and I have had our first Covid-19 vaccinations – I wrote about my experience here. Oh and Noreen has had shingles – now luckily gone away – and her cellulitis is resolving but slowly and the whole area of skin is still fragile.

I suggested last time that the lockdown may be over by now, but it isn’t and quite rightly in my view. The case rate needs to be down in really low figures. I might start feeling comfortable with ending lockdown when the daily new case rate locally gets down below 100 – it’s currently around 1800, down from a peak of 10,500.

I wonder what fresh nonsense can be dreamt up in time for my next report on day 365?

Meanwhile remember the mantra:

HANDS – FACE – SPACE

And stay locked in your cell.

personal, ramblings

Happy Chinese New Year

Happy Chinese New Year

The Chinese zodiac is based on the lunar calendar that assigns an animal (and its reputed attributes) to each year in a repeating 12-year cycle, with the year beginning on a variable date in January or February. Originating from China, the zodiac and its variations remain popular in many East and Southeast Asian countries.

Both the Chinese and Western Zodiacs share the characteristic of having the cycle divided into 12 parts, with the ruler of each defining the personality or events of the person born under that sign. But there are major differences too. The Chinese Zodiac does not correspond to celestial constellations, and it has a 12 year cycle rather than a 12 month cycle.

The year beginning today, 12 February 2021, is the Year of the Ox; more specifically the Metal Ox. Oxen used to be capable farming tools in an agricultural society, and thus became the symbol of diligence, persistence, and honesty. In Chinese astrology, Ox is a faithful friend that made great contributions to the development of the society. Like the Ox, people born in the Year of the Ox are industrious, cautious, hold their faith firmly, and always glad to offer help.

Tradition has it that the Ox ranks second in the Chinese zodiac because it helped the Rat but was later tricked by it. The myth goes that the Jade Emperor declared the order of zodiac would be based on the order of arrival of 12 animals. Ox could have arrived the first but it kindly gave a ride to Rat. However, when arriving at the finish, Rat jumped ahead of Ox, and thus gained first place.

Also on this day, 12 February:

Execution of Lady Jane Grey, in 1554, she was only 16 (or maybe 17) years old. She was Queen for 9 days in July 1553 following the death of Edward VI and following the intentions of his will; however the Privy Council changed sides and put Mary Tudor on the throne. Having been held in the Tower of London, Lady Jane Grey was subsequently executed as she was seen to be a treat to Mary.

Birth of Abraham Lincoln in 1809. 16th President of USA, March 1861-April 1865. Having lead the North through all but the last few weeks of the American Civil War, Lincoln was assassinated on 15 April 1865.

Happy Chinese New Year

medical, personal, ramblings

Horrible Times 17: Surreal

Yesterday was Day 323 of self-isolation for me. And it turned out to be quite a surreal experience because I got my first Covid-19 vaccination.

As regular readers will know I turned 70 earlier this month, so I’m (just) in the 15 million people the PM is promising will be vaccinated by mid-February. Until the last few days this had looked pretty unachievable to me.

On Wednesday of last week, at a PPG** meeting, our GP’s Practice Manager said that they had almost finished inviting the over-75s for vaccination – which I found slightly surprising – and implied they would start calling the over-70s in a week or so. OK, I thought, if I’m lucky I may get invited in 2-3 weeks time.

Imagine my surprise when the next day I received a text inviting me to book my jab. Follow the link to make a booking, it said. Knowing this was the preferred approach, I did. I was offered a slot for yesterday afternoon at the Town Hall (one of two centres doing vaccinations in the borough). It’s a taxi ride away so I wasn’t overjoyed, but I booked.

A local London black cab driver is offering local people fixed price wait-and-return trips to vaccine centres. He quoted me what I knew was a good price and I booked him to take me.

Come the day, I’m a bit concerned. This will be only the fourth time in 323 days I’ve been off the premises. I don’t know the cab driver (except on social media). And I have to mix with hundreds of the great unwashed at the Town Hall. I made this worse by not leaving myself enough time to get ready at ease (because I went to sleep after lunch – as you do) so I was a bit flustered. But we got there. Paul the cab driver was bang on time, friendly and helpful. He got me to the appointment 15 minutes early, so I expected to wait.

There is no queue! Check in at the front desk. Go to the Waiting Area, be checked in again. I’m still expecting to wait, but after a couple of minutes I’m called. Check in a third time at another desk and be given my official card; sit and wait in another area.

Now go to that station where a nurse asked the usual questions (date of birth, allergies …) and stuck a needle in my arm. I hardly felt it, less even that a flu jab. Then because I’ve had the Pfizer vaccine, go to another room to sit for 15 minutes to make sure I’m OK. And then home.

I was out of the house for no more than 60 minutes, including a 15-20 minute taxi ride each way and 15 minutes “under observation”.

But it was so weird. I find our Victorian Town Hall bizarrely labyrinthine at the best of times. But having hardly been out for a year, being among so many people, having to be careful of social distancing, and not having been in a black cab for well over a year … plus mask, gloves and hearing aids … and (let’s be honest) what is still by normal rules an experimental vaccination … well it was all rather surreal.

What made it worse was that having got home, and changed, I still felt contaminated for the rest of the day, which was partly the Town Hall, but mostly the proximity to the number of people. And that was quite unexpected!

The after-effects? So far after 24 hours, effectively none. My arm was a bit sore last night, less so this morning and now it has almost gone. That’s all.

So what was my impression of the NHS’s running of the programme? Absolutely astonished and gobsmacked, in a good way.

At first sight, from the outside, it looked as disorganised as I feared it might be. But it wasn’t! It was actually well organised, efficient, great care over safety, well staffed. I didn’t count, but there were around two dozen NHS people there. Of them about 10 were clinicians (two preparing injections and 6-8 actually administering them). The rest were checking people, shepherding, helping those with mobility problems, and generally watching over social distancing. It wasn’t frantically busy but steady; enough that no-one was under pressure or rushed – which makes for good care and safety. Everyone was helpful, friendly and in a good humour; I heard no-one grumbling.

Yes, it was well organised. For just one centre like this, for at least 12 hours a day, 7 days a week, with NHS staff volunteering for the work in addition to their normal jobs … getting the vaccine supply and patient supply to match up … well the logistics is not easy. To do that countrywide, in the time available, is a huge achievement.

From what I saw, the IT systems behind it all are good, especially given the scale. Everything the centre needs seemed to be there, it works, and seems pretty slick. The IT is sufficiently complex that I also don’t know how it’s been put together in the time available. There may be a load of swans paddling furiously under the surface, but if there are it doesn’t show.

I know we all moan about the NHS’s ability to get things done, and done properly, but from a patient’s perspective this one looks like a resounding success. I was really impressed.

** Patient Participation Group for a GP Practice. I’m Chairman of our group.

amusements, memes, personal

Birthday Meme

So twenty questions making up my birthday meme.

  1. Something you want to do again next year? Survive.
  2. What’s a bad habit you picked up this year? Sloth.
  3. What are you excited about for next year? Nothing. I don’t do excitement.
  4. If you could send a message to yourself back on your birthday last year, what would it be?
    The seat belt sign is on. Hold on tight. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.
  5. Did you create any characters (in games, art, or writing) this year? If so, describe one.
    Serge Tyde. Harbourmaster of a small SW England town. French extraction (probably via his maternal grandmother). Very suntanned; always to be seen in shorts, and bare-chested in warm weather. Partial to a glass of red.
    Also living in the same town is Sir Chiltern Waternut, retired diplomat.
  6. Do you feel your age? Physically: always. Mentally: seldom (apart from depression).
  7. Did your appearance change in anyway? Yes, hair cut even shorter than before.
  8. What was your favourite article of clothing this year? Post a pic if possible? The Emperor’s new suit. A picture would definitely frighten the horses.
  9. What was one nice thing you did for someone else? Online grocery shopping & delivery for Jean.
  10. What was one nice thing you did for yourself? Good food.
  11. Did anything happen that you were sure would change you as a person but it really didn’t? No.
  12. Did anything happen to you that you were sure wouldn’t change you as a person but it did? No.
  13. Pick three people who share your birthday and share what you know about them.
    • Harry Gordon Selfridge (1858-1947). American-English businessman who founded Selfridge’s Department Store.
    • Arthur Scargill (born 1938). English miner’s union leader who led the miners strikes in opposition to Prime Ministers Edward Heath (in 1972, 1974) and Margaret Thatcher (in 1984-85). Communist; activist; politician.
    • Brian Moore (born 1962). English rugby player who gained 64 caps as hooker.
  14. Is anyone listed as being born on the same day as you (ie. the same year)? If so, what do you know about them?
  15. List three people who died on your birthday and tell us what you know about them.
    • Thomas Hardy (1840-1928). English novelist and poet. Like most of the writers of “classics” I was turned off his work at school.
    • Alberto Giacometti (1901-1966). Swiss sculptor and painter. Famous for his sculptures of extremely tall and slender figures.
    • Edmund Hillary (1919-2008). New Zealand mountaineer and explorer. On 29 May 1953 Hillary and Sherpa Tenzing Norgay became the first climbers confirmed to have reached the summit of Mount Everest.
  16. List three notable events that took place on your birthday.
  17. Tell us about a holiday that falls on your birthday.
    Excepting a national day in Albania (which I have been unable to verify) the only holiday I can find on 11 January is the Japanese Kagami biraki which marks the end of the New Year holiday and the return to work. Although not a public holiday, it is widely celebrated.
  18. Three Fears. No money. Being widowed. Dementia.
  19. Three things I love. Sex. Warm sun. Quiet.
  20. If you could live anywhere in the world, under any circumstances whatsoever, where would you go and what would your house be like?
    A beach, somewhere warm and sunny all year. An unpretentious, spacious, but not over large, modern house with light décor, and big windows and/or patio doors. It needs to be close to all amenities. There’ll be several cats and a large well stocked koi pond, set in a mature garden which is secluded enough to allow nudity. I’ll need a gardener and a housekeeper.

Toodle Pip!

personal

Ten Things To Do in 2021

As most years I’ve looked at some of the things I would like to achieve over the coming year. Most of the main list should be fairly independent of Covid-19; but I’ve created a separate list of things which will depend on the widespread release of Covid restrictions. Many on the lists are repeats (or near repeats) of items from last year – mostly because I couldn’t do them last year! As always some could turn out to be (relatively) easy; others are going to be harder.

So in some very vague priority order here are …

Ten Things To Do in 2021

  1. Survive Covid-19 and get vaccinated
  2. Reduce HbA1c to below 50
  3. Complete “Coordinate My Care”
  4. Fix how my family history, photographs, website etc. are preserved for posterity
  5. Get (more) involved with PCN PPG and CCG PERF
  6. Spend at least 2 hours/week taking photographs
  7. Family history: check/update Dora’s work on Cullingworth & Coker lines
  8. Family history: remove the brick walls in Marshall, Hicks, Nowers lines
  9. Be nude whenever possible & comfortable (home & elsewhere)
  10. Have something named after me (like a new species of dung beetle?)

Six Things to Attempt if Covid Restrictions Permit

  1. Have a monthly day out
  2. Do something not done before
  3. Go somewhere not been before
  4. Be drawn/painted/photographed nude (by someone not family)
  5. Revisit Brightwell Baldwin & Berrick Salome
  6. Revisit Hardingstone, Geddington, Earl’s Barton

I will, of course, report back this time next year, should the Kindly Ones continue to allow.

current affairs, personal

Horrible Times 16: Day 300

Happy New Year to everyone, from these dystopian times!

So we’ve arrived at Day 300 of my lockdown. Are we going to make it to a full year? Well given the current situation where everything is locked down until at least mid-February, it feels pretty much a certainty.

OK, so we’ve now got two Covid-19 vaccines approved in the UK (from Pfizer/BioNtech and Oxford/AstraZeneca). In that sense there is light at the end of the tunnel, although full deployment is going to take quite a while – like maybe a year. Yes, yes, I know what the government say, but do you really believe them? Although I hit 70 this month I don’t expect to get my first vaccine shot this side of Easter and it could well be later – does anyone know what the supply situation will be in two weeks, let alone two months?

But (there is always a but) we also have a new strain of Covid-19 which appears to be getting on for twice as infectious as the original. This has caused the number of cases of Covid-19 to increase rapidly again, undoing all the good work of the early-to-middle part of last year. It hasn’t been helped by the general stupidity of the (un)great British public who don’t seem to get the problem. But then the government also either don’t get the problem or they are terminally inept. (I suspect the latter; but maybe it’s both.) All of which means that although there’s a light at the end of the tunnel, the tunnel has just got a lot, lot longer – and with yesterdays announcement of stricter lockdown it got a lot, lot darker where we are.

London has been in Tier 4 restrictions (lockdown in all but name) for several weeks. While this is pretty strict, it doesn’t seem to be draconian enough. At long last the government seems to have come to realise this (for the whole country) with yesterday’s imposition of much stricter lockdown and schools & universities closed for face-to-face teaching (with a few exceptions) until at least mid-February. What larks!

Not that this makes a lot of difference to us. We’ve largely been living under “STAY AT HOME” rules since early March. I just feel sorry for those, like our friend Tom, who have no lifeline and have to work to keep the wolf from the door; and for those who are supposed to put their well-being at risk (not just healthcare workers, but supermarket staff, emergency services, …).

So I’m not going to give you a checklist of the good and not-so-good this time around; just a couple of points.

First of all Noreen has to a large extent (but not completely) recovered from the illness I mentioned back on Day 250. It turned out to be a very nasty case of cellulitis which required two weeks of daily trips to the hospital for IV antibiotics, and then a couple of weeks of attention from the District Nurses. We’re now in the healing phase. I won’t pretend that the whole episode wasn’t difficult in the extreme – for both of us! What was especially shocking was the speed and severity with which it hit, and one can quite see why in days of yore, and with no antibiotics, it would have killed people very quickly. On the other hand, with a very few exceptions, Noreen was hugely impressed with the skill and care of all sections of the NHS: our GP, the Practice nurses, hospital doctors and nurses, hospital transport, and the District Nurses; and we mustn’t forget the couple of friends who turned out to provide emergency transport at short notice. Another good thing is that it has made us both slow down some and get to bed at a more sensible hour.

Needless to say this put a large spanner in the works and meant our Christmas was exceptionally quiet and low-key even by our standards. For various reasons we ended up with a lot more meat than we could cope with (no, just don’t ask!) so we now have three large joints of various sorts in the freezer. We also have a good supply of wine, beer, gin, soup and chocolate laid in. Just as well given the weather is getting colder. It can’t be all bad!

So what next? Well who knows? I guess we just have to plod on and hope; there seems to be no guessing what’s going to happen next, nor what our lords and masters are (not) going to decree we must do. Surely 2021 can’t be as bad as 2020, can it?! But maybe I won’t put my last shirt on that.

With luck I’ll bring you another episode on Day 350 (Wednesday 24 February) by which time this new lockdown may be over – or it may not. Who knows?

Meanwhile please follow the rules and remember:

HANDS – FACE – SPACE

Oh and you’re not allowed out of your cabin on pain of being keel-hauled.

amusements, current affairs, personal, ramblings

Predictions for 2021

Once again this year I’ve disinterred my crystal ball and wiped the mud off. However it becomes cloudier by the day (yes, the ravages of age affect crystal balls too!) so despite regular consultations over the last month or so what follows are only my guesses at what may happen during 2021.

Actually this year I’ve found it very difficult to predict as there are too many unknowns and variables, and too much going on, due in large part to both Brexit and Covid-19. Hence the length of this year’s predictions.

As before, I’ve divided the predictions into sections: General, UK, World and Personal. Various items are redacted (although I have them documented) as some might be especially sensitive.

Disclaimer. I remind you that these are just my ideas of what could happen; they’re based solely on hunches and gut feel; I have no inside knowledge, I haven’t been studying the form, and I have a success rate of about 20%. So if you base any decision on any of this I will take no responsibility for your wanton act of idiocy or its consequences.

General

  1. This should be a year of change, of healing, of reassessing what’s important and of rebuilding. But I fear it won’t be! There are too many who want to instigate violent protest or will angrily protect their vested interests.
    Watch out for flashpoints in mid-February, mid-June and immediately before Christmas.
  2. If we do see a return to some semblance of normality, it is going to be late in the year and run on into 2022. Things will generally ease up in 4Q.
  3. We should also see the technological and green revolutions, as well as smarter working practices, take off. If they do it will be in the middle 6 months of the year.
  4. Watch out for travel delays and general buggeration during weeks 5-7, 21-25 and 39-41.
  5. Also watch out for change around the time of eclipses, especially in areas where they are visible. This year we have: Lunar eclipses on 26 May (visible round the pacific rim), 19 November (eastern Pacific and Americas); Solar eclipses on 10 June (Arctic) and 4 December (Antarctic).
  6. There are Supermoons on 27 April, 26 May and 24 June, and a Blue Moon on 22 August. These should all herald good news.

UK

  1. The Queen abdicates unexpectedly, on or shortly after her 95th birthday in April, citing failing health, and may die late in the year.
  2. Boris Johnson resigns as PM in March, partly due to poor health. In true Roman style he declares a Triumph saying he “got Brexit done”.
    His successor is likely to be Michael Gove or Rishi Sunak and will be an even worse culprit of nepotism and cronyism while introducing some fresh blood.
    There is no prospect of an early general election.
  3. There will be more division in politics and more stand-offs between local authorities and central government. Watch London, Manchester and Liverpool.
  4. Elections due to be held in May (eg. London Mayor) will go ahead despite Covid-19 still being rampant.
  5. Scottish independence referendum is possible in October/November but probably won’t happen until at least mid-2022 (and quite likely 2023).
    If it does happen, the result will be 55:45 in favour of independence.
  6. Government budget deficit hits £500bn with no immediate prospect of falling.
  7. UK GDP shrinks a further 5% year-on-year.
  8. Unemployment rises to 10%.
  9. Bank of England interest rate falls to 0% and could go negative.
  10. UK is in recession again by mid-year.
  11. In the Spring Budget:
    • Due to the budget deficit tax bands are not increased.
    • Tax rates are increased: 2% on both basic rate Income Tax and on VAT.
    • All UK pensions (state & private) are frozen by law for at least 3 years.
    • Duty on alcohol sold in pubs & restaurants is reduced by 30% in an attempt to help the industry.
    • Duty on alcohol off-sales, fuel and tobacco is increased.
  12. Major discontent (already brewing in the last days of 2020) when UK fishing industry realise they won’t get their full fishing quotas back post-Brexit.
  13. Despite the Brexit deal, there are major food shortages by February, due to Brexit import issues, effect of the new variant of Covid-19, and the lack of vaccinations. These could well last until June.
    Fruit & veg increases 50% in (retail) price – partly to constrain demand.
    Meat & fish also increase in price by 30%.
    Bread (and flour) prices double and supply is constrained due to poor 2020 grain harvests in UK and Canada as well as post-Brexit issues.
  14. There is major disruption to movement of goods between Northern Ireland and the UK mainland.
    The border between Northern Ireland and the Republic continues to be very porous.
    It is concluded that the only solutions are either a hard border with the Republic or the reunification of Ireland. Neither is politically acceptable, but then neither is the current situation. Meanwhile the disruption continues while politicians on all sides spend the year gibbering in their corners and paralysed with indecision.
    A temporary hard border is however required to try to constrain the spread of Covid19.
  15. The EU continues to impose travel restrictions on UK (due to Covid-19 and Brexit).
    Several countries follow France’s lead and insist that all UK travellers have visas to enter their country, regardless of reason or length of stay.
    As a consequence, travel outside the UK is difficult until mid-year.
  16. All of which stimulates a popular movement to rejoin the EU. This will build slowly over a number of years, but will not be taken at all seriously until after 2025.
  17. The government tries (again) to impose major reform on TfL. This leads to long-running industrial action by tube and bus workers and could see 30% of bus routes withdrawn permanently.
  18. A strike (or other significant industrial action) by energy workers (I’m not sure if this is electricity, gas or oil) seems likely – probably in February or November/December.
  19. Covid-19 wave 3 in January/February is due to the new strain of the virus and rules generally being ignored (especially in London and SE England). Lockdowns and restrictions (via tier) are ongoing until at least mid-year; this scuppers any hope of a quick recovery.
  20. Covid shuts UK schools & universities for three months (January to March is most likely) causing major confusion and disruption.
    Many degrees and GCSE/A-levels are devalued due to doubts over the level of teaching and study possible.
  21. There will be increased stress in 1Q and a further unexpected lockdown in 3Q. This fuels a further marked decline in mental health with antidepressant prescriptions up 25% during the year.
  22. There will be problems with Covid-19 vaccine supply until around Easter, when there will be a turning point.
    There will be another turning point around September time.
  23. A UK TV channel/company ceases broadcasting. Possibly Channel 5 or BBC3; less likely Sky or BBC4.
  24. One of UK’s eight major supermarkets goes under. Most likely: ASDA, Morrisons.
  25. The following will go into administration/cease trading as a result of the Coronavirus pandemic: Wetherspoons, Coda Falconry, Vagina Museum, 30% of pubs and restaurants, 30% of London theatres, Hull Trains, Eurostar.
  26. [[REDACTED]]
  27. There may well be a significant event (possibly a disaster) somewhere near Stoke-on-Trent and another in West Lothian.
  28. There is likely to be a major train crash, with at least 10 dead.
  29. Further structural damage will be found to London’s Hammersmith Bridge, and there may be a partial collapse. The bridge may have to be demolished.
  30. Other deaths: Prince Philip, another senior royal, Frank Field, Philip Green, Monty Don, Bill Turnbull, Tariq Ali.

World

  1. Trump continues to believe he won the election and refuses to leave the White House. He is finally removed in early February.
  2. The Trump presidency leaves the US in a terrible state with lots of last minute, vindictive orders which cannot be easily rolled back.
  3. Several Trump aides and family members are investigated for fraud and corruption, although prosecutions are hampered by non-cooperation and interference with witnesses.
  4. Trump declines to follow precedent and refuses to bequeath his papers to the state or endow a library for them.
  5. Joe Biden dies (probably due to a heart attack), leaving US with a woman president by default.
    This causes Trump to resurface and claim he should be President.
  6. 2021 could possibly see the death of Donald Trump.
  7. Expect several Covid-19 vaccines to be approved; most likely: Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, Oxford/AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson; there may be others.
    Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine will not be licensed in USA until there have been further trials.
    All western countries will license at least two of the above four.
  8. However a really good vaccine (effective with long lasting protection) is not available in sufficient quantity until at least mid-year and will take 12 months or more to deploy fully in western countries.
    In consequence travel and isolation restrictions remain in place into 2022.
  9. In good news there could well be some major medical breakthroughs. Cancer treatment looks to be the most likely.
  10. There’s all out war between China and India, which threatens to pull in Russia and USA.
  11. There is a crisis of some sort in North Korea (possibly the death of Kim Yong-un) which dangerously destabilises the country.
  12. There is also a destabilising crisis in Venezuela.
  13. A crisis in either Iraq or Iran could well descend into civil war.
  14. There will be a major Islamic-based attack in Europe.
  15. Japan starts dumping the tritium contaminated water from the Fukushima nuclear site into sea.
  16. NASA’s Perseverance rover (to Mars) will fail on landing.
  17. Catastrophic failure and demise of ISS, possibly due to a debris strike – although any on-board astronauts are able to evacuate to safety prior to final explosion.
  18. Having returned to the skies, there’s another Boeing 737 MAX 8 crash, and the plane is grounded again.
    And at least one other major plane crash with over 100 dead.
  19. Two major airlines fail; Virgin Atlantic is probably finally one of them.
  20. There’s a major train crash somewhere in Europe
  21. A major financial institution fails – it’s not clear where, but the US, Italy or Greece seem likely.
  22. There may well be a significant event (possibly a disaster) somewhere around Spain or Portugal – possibly around the border between the two countries.
  23. A magnitude 7 earthquake is likely in one of the countries on the west coast of South America.
    There will also be a magnitude 6 quake on the west coast of the USA.
    And at least one major volcanic eruption which causes disruption to air travel.
  24. The world’s weather will be slightly cooler than in recent years (due to El Niña) but there will be an increase in the number and severity of storms and hurricanes.
  25. Other Deaths: Bolsonaro, another prominent international politician (possibly Merkel), Rupert Murdoch, a current F1 driver.

Personal

  1. Family 1: [[REDACTED]]
  2. Family 2: [[REDACTED]]
  3. Friends 1: [[REDACTED]]
  4. Friends 2: [[REDACTED]]
  5. Friends 3: [[REDACTED]]
  6. Miscellaneous 1: [[REDACTED]]
  7. Deaths: [[REDACTED]]

These have all been redacted as the content is bound to be sensitive to people I know, however they are documented in my files and will be reported on at the end of the year.

Obviously I shall keep a tally and will publish the results at the end of the year. Let’s hope we actually get a better year this year than we did last and that much of the above doesn’t come to pass.

amusements, current affairs, personal, ramblings

Predictions for 2020: The Results

This time last year I made a long series of predictions about what would happen during 2020. So what did I get right, and what wrong?

[Some of the items remain redacted to protect the sensitive and innocent.]

UK

  1. Look out for natural disasters around 9-10/02 (snow), 9-10/03, 7-8/04 (very wet Easter), 6-7/05 (financial crash) (all of these dates are moon at perigee and full). CORRECT for 9-10/02 with Storm Ciara bringing heavy rain and high winds, with snow in the north. CORRECT for 9-10/03 which was again very wet and windy. VOID for 6-7/05 as this was an erroneous date for moon at perigee.
    Also 30-31/10 (plane crash) (moon is at apogee, full and a Blue Moon). WRONG
  2. Penumbral lunar eclipse (visible in London) 10/01, 05/06, 05/07, 30/11 may also presage problems. CORRECT for 10/01 with the beginnings of the emergence of Covid-19. WRONG. for the other dates.
  3. UK leaves EU on 31/01: UK will not request a further extension and anyway the EU wouldn’t grant it. CORRECT
    Leave deal will be unsatisfactory (basically the deal of 10/2019, passed due to Tory majority in the new parliament) containing many Henry VIII clauses (many of which will be abused before YE). CORRECT
  4. Government cannot agree a trade deal with EU by YE. WRONG
    If the EU proposes an extension beyond YE 2020 the UK government will refuse it, thus cementing a total “no deal” Brexit. CORRECT; no extension was offered; indeed the UK government indicated it didn’t want any extension.
  5. Boris Johnson continues to believe in unicorns and will ride out the economic turmoil following Brexit. CORRECT so far.
  6. Corbin is replaced as Labour Leader by a woman; possibly one of Yvette Cooper, Stella Creasy, Angela Eagle, Angela Rayner. (Predicted before the runners and riders were declared.) CORRECT in that Corbin was replaced. However WRONG that the new leader would be female. Also WRONG that the named females would be in the final running for leader.
  7. Despite attempts by UK and Ireland, the parties in Ulster are unable to agree a power sharing administration. WRONG; a new administration was agreed in January.
  8. There’s a move to reunite Ireland as the post-Brexit border is unworkable. This could stimulate Sinn Féin take their seats at Westminster to try to push through the reunification. WRONG on all counts there.
  9. Scotland is denied an independence referendum in 2020 by Westminster and fails to get a Supreme Court ruling in it’s favour. CORRECT that BJ would deny Scotland another referendum.
    The SNP will build resentment against Westminster in order to win elections (and maybe a referendum) in 2021/22. WRONG in that there is no major sign of SNP building discontent (more than normal).
  10. Increasing calls for reform of electoral system (to some form of proportional representation) but they’re continually blocked by the government who implement boundary changes to cement their position. WRONG
  11. HS2 gets the go-ahead and a feasibility study into extensions to Edinburgh/Glasgow and Cardiff. CORRECT; HS2 was given the go-ahead in February, with a proposal to extend to Glasgow surfacing in June.
  12. Fracking is allowed to restart. WRONG; in fact Cuadrilla (who have the only UK fracking licence) have surrendered the fracking part of their licence.
  13. Sadiq Khan wins a second term as London Mayor – but only just. VOID as the elections have been postponed to 2021 due to Covid-19.
  14. Nigel Farage gets a peerage; John Bercow, Kenneth Clarke and Dominic Grieve do not. WRONG about Farage and Clarke. CORRECT about Bercow and Grieve.
  15. Appointees to the Supreme Court (eg. the replacement for Lady Hale) are seen as being clearly political appointees, rather than appropriate legals. WRONG as far as I am aware.
  16. Because of the economic turmoil the UK is in recession by YE. CORRECT; UK officially in recession by August, largely due to Covid-19.
    Unemployment hits 10%. WRONG; September’s unemployment was just 4.8%.
    Bank of England Interest Rate returns to 0%. WRONG; base rate was reduced but only to 0.1%.
  17. Sterling plummets against dollar and Euro following the UK’s exit from the EU. CORRECT for Euro which fell from €1.18 to €1.11. WRONG for US Dollar which rose from $1.32 to $1.37.
  18. Inflation rises to at least 10% by YE, mainly due to large cost increases in the food industry and hospitality sector. WRONG
  19. FTSE falls 10% cf. start of year – due to Brexit and the financial crash. CORRECT; due to Brexit and Covid-19 the FTSE100 fell by 12.8% over the year.
  20. Financial crash, probably in early May, with the possibility that a bank will fail. WRONG
  21. S&P and/or Moody’s downgrade UK creditworthiness by two levels. WRONG
  22. Mortgage interest rates hit 10% before YE. WRONG
    Average UK house prices fall by at least 10%. WRONG according to the ONS they increased by around 5%.
    Repossessions double. WRONG; repossessions fell dramatically although there was a significant rise in home owners with serious payment arrears.
  23. Pensions (private & state) are compulsorily frozen. WRONG
  24. Drug prices double as the US buys up the NHS. WRONG; if this has happened it’s been well hidden.
    Prescription charges are extended to everyone with no exemptions. WRONG
  25. Either ASDA or Morrison’s fails or is taken over. CORRECT; ASDA was bought from Walmart.
    Debenhams finally fails. CORRECT
    Major problems for M&S and/or John Lewis – a partnership between the two looks likely. CORRECT about problems for both M&S and JLP although WRONG about an M&S/JLP tie-up.
  26. Major drug/alcohol or fraud/fixing issue uncovered in one or more of UK athletics, rugby, cricket. WRONG
  27. Extinction Rebellion fizzles out. PARTLY CORRECT in that ER have gone very quiet although they’re still around.
  28. Diane Abbott and Theresa May are diagnosed with long-term illnesses. WRONG as far as we know.
  29. Magnitude 4 or greater earthquake somewhere in UK. PARTLY CORRECT as there was a Mag 3.9 quake in Uxbridge in September.
  30. At least 200 deaths in illegal migration attempts to the UK. VOID as I’ve been unable to find any consolidated data.
  31. Plans announced to replace the Thames Barrier; work to start 2025 and complete 2040. WRONG
  32. Announcement that London congestion charge zone will be expanded out to N & S Circulars in 2025/6. PARTLY CORRECT; this was proposed by government (and sooner than 2025/6) as part of a deal to provide extra funding for TfL; however it was eventually removed.
  33. Relatively mild wet January/February followed by a cold wet spring & summer thus ensuring a poor fruit and grain harvest. WRONG as the winter was not especially warmer or wetter than of late; but CORRECT about the cool, wet Spring and Summer and the ensuing poor harvest.
  34. Death of the Queen and Prince Philip. Possibly also Prince Charles, in an accident. William becomes King by YE. WRONG on every count.
  35. Other Deaths: Edwina Currie, Gordon Brown, a royal duke, Kenneth Clarke, Jeffrey Archer, Dennis Skinner, Lord Heseltine, Lord Gowrie. WRONG on every count.

World

  1. Trump wins 2020 Presidential election due to Democrat dissent over their candidate. WRONG
  2. Saudi Arabia drastically cuts oil exports amid internecine turmoil. CORRECT; Saudi Arabia did cut oil exports but due to a fall in demand because of Covid-19.
  3. Zimbabwe finally succumbs to outright civil war which spills over into South Africa. WRONG
  4. South American countries descend further into right-wing government. WRONG
  5. Rate of Amazonian deforestation increases. CORRECT
    Global temperature and CO2 emissions continue to rise. CORRECT
    The COP26 climate talks in Glasgow (in November) end in disagreement and failure. VOID as the talks were postponed due to Covid-19.
  6. Major violence (civil war?) in Turkey. WRONG
  7. Violent uprising continues in Hong Kong and India. CORRECT for both Hong Kong and India.
  8. Russia annexes one of the Baltic states. WRONG
  9. Big solar geomagnetic storm causes major breakdown of satellites and infrastructure, probably across North America but possibly elsewhere. WRONG
  10. Collision between two operational satellites (maybe as a result of geomagnetic storm). PARTLY CORRECT in that two (non-operational) satellites had a very close near-miss in January.
  11. Boeing Starliner and SpaceX Crew Dragon both launch crewed capsules. One of them fails with loss of the crew. CORRECT in that SpaceX did launch crew, and in fact took crew to ISS. WRONG about a Boeing Starliner crewed mission and loss of crew in a failure.
  12. At least one other major space mission fails. PARTLY CORRECT; with 10 orbital launch failures out of 112 (9%) this has been the most mission failures in a year since 1971.
  13. Magnitude 7 or greater earthquake in California and another in Peru. WRONG
  14. Greta Thunberg is burnt out and sinks out of sight to complete her education. PARTLY CORRECT in that Thunberg has gone very quiet although she’s still around.
  15. At least one major global IT company fails (or is saved only by a takeover). WRONG
    Also a major airline and a shipping line. CORRECT for airlines; see, inter alia, Air Italy, Flybe, Virgin Atlantic.
    VOID for shipping as again I can find no good data, but given the state of the shipping industry it seems likely there were major failures.
  16. Major plane crash in western Europe – possibly France – possibly controlled flight into terrain. PARTLY CORRECT Ukrainian Boeing came down near Tehran; all 176 onboard lost.
  17. Ebola flares again in central Africa. CORRECT; there was an outbreak in DRC between June and November.
  18. Significant new disease emerges (as MERS and SARS did); concern at possible pandemic. CORRECT (in Spades!) with the emergence of pandemic Covid-19.
  19. Number of western countries ban vaping or include it in their anti-smoking regulations. WRONG
  20. Amazon and/or Facebook is involved in a major anti-trust or privacy law suit. CORRECT; Facebook is facing major (anti-trust?) law suits in USA.
  21. Deaths: Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Dalai Lama, Angela Merkel, Bill Gates, Rupert Murdoch. WRONG on all counts.

Personal

  1. Personal (a), (b): [[REDACTED]] WRONG
  2. Neighbours1 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]] WRONG
  3. Neighbours2: [[REDACTED]] WRONG
  4. Neighbours3: [[REDACTED]] WRONG
  5. Local Community1 (a), (b), (c): [[REDACTED]] (a) & (c) WRONG; (b) CORRECT
  6. Local Community2 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]] (a) CORRECT; (b) WRONG
  7. Local Community3: [[REDACTED]] WRONG
  8. Friends1 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]] WRONG
  9. Friends2 (a), (b), (c): [[REDACTED]] (a) CORRECT; (b) & (c) WRONG
  10. Friends3: [[REDACTED]] WRONG to the best of my knowledge
  11. Friends4 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]] WRONG
  12. Friends5 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]] WRONG but only just
  13. Friends6: [[REDACTED]] CORRECT
  14. Friends7: [[REDACTED]] WRONG to the best of my knowledge
  15. Deaths: 11 named individuals [[REDACTED]] CORRECT for two individuals; WRONG for the other nine to the best of my knowledge.

These have all been redacted as the content is bound to be sensitive to people I know, however they are documented in my files and will be reported on at the end of the year.

Yet again this is a pathetic hit rate, although in my defence I suggest that really all bets were off this year due to Covid-19.

Tomorrow I’ll post my predictions for 2021. Watch this space.