Category Archives: current affairs

current affairs, personal, ramblings

2017 Predictions

As I promised a few days ago I’ve again dusted off my crystal ball to see what this year could bring. After all it can’t be a lot worse than 2016 — or can it?
What follows is my best interpretation the misty images in the aforesaid crystal ball. I remind you that they are just my ideas of what could happen; they’re based solely on hunches and gut feel; I have no inside knowledge and I haven’t been studying the form — so if you base any decision on any of this I will take no responsibility for your for your wanton act of idiocy.
As before, I’ve divided the predictions into three sections: UK, Worldwide and Personal — the latter are documented but currently redacted.

UK

  1. Brexit. The Supreme Court overturns the High Court judgement that Royal Prerogative cannot be used to trigger Article 50.
  2. Brexit. Article 50 will be triggered in the last week of March by government without the agreement of parliament.
  3. Brexit. It becomes apparent that no deal is possible with the EU and that the notification under Article 50 cannot be withdrawn.
  4. As a consequence, Theresa May resigns and asks Parliament to grant a General Election.
  5. Boris Johnson is sacked as Foreign Secretary and relegated to the back benches.
  6. The new Foreign Secretary is one of David Davies, Liam Fox, Michael Gove.
  7. Inflation will hit 2.5% by year-end.
  8. The Bank of England Base Rate will be reduced to 0%.
  9. The Pound falls by 20% (cf. 1 January) against the US Dollar and the Euro.
  10. FT100 falls by at least 10% compared with the start of the year.
  11. Unemployment rises by 10% compared with December 2016.
  12. GDP falls by at least 2% year-on-year; the UK is in recession by the end of the year.
  13. The Government will introduce legislation to implement Nordic model of prostitution.
  14. The Government also implements alcohol minimum pricing.
  15. There is at least one major incident (plane crash, train crash, terrorist attack, industrial accident etc.) with over 50 fatalities.
  16. At least one high street name goes out of business with over 500 job losses.
  17. At least 2 major hospitals are forced to close due to finance problems, with loss of jobs and healthcare; there is no allowance for anyone to pick up the slack.
  18. Two horses die in the Grand National, which is then permanently scrapped.
  19. There’s significant flooding somewhere in the UK in March, May and October.
  20. A meteor strike destroys two houses, but there are no fatalities.
  21. There is finally proof that there are non-native big cats living wild in the UK; there are enough to maintain a small breeding population.
  22. The Queen dies unexpectedly followed within 3 months by Prince Philip.
  23. Prince Charles ducks becoming King thus allowing William to take to the throne.
  24. Other Deaths: Paul McCartney, Bruce Forsythe, Bob Geldof, Michael Parkinson.

World

  1. Donald Trump is inaugurated as US President amid strident protests, possible rioting and several fatalities.
  2. During the year there are moves to impeach Trump which may succeed.
  3. Obama care is scrapped.
  4. NASA’s budget is halved.
  5. An accident (maybe a debris strike?) destroys the ISS with loss of the crew.
  6. Consequent on the above NASA abandons manned space flight for the foreseeable future.
  7. Trump visits Russia; Putin visits the US.
  8. US imposes severe restrictions on immigration.
  9. Against all the odds the USA abolishes the death penalty.
  10. Major banking collapse somewhere in the developed world, possibly Italy, USA or UK.
  11. Major cyber attack brings down power/utility infrastructure affecting hundreds of thousands, probably in USA but maybe Western Europe.
  12. Marine Le Pen is elected French President precipitating an existential crisis in the EU.
  13. Turmoil in South Africa after the arrest of a top politician.
  14. President Mugabe of Zimbabwe dies.
  15. Consequently the regime in Zimbabwe becomes even more repressive, in an attempt to prevent a civil war; this triggers a mass exodus of blacks to neighbouring countries.
  16. At least one major earthquake (magnitude 7.5+) with over 200 fatalities in Asia and another in South America.
  17. Scientists in Tasmania discover a small breeding population of Thylacine.
  18. At least two major civilian plane crashes each with over 100 fatalities.
  19. There is a significant downturn in air travel which causes at least one major carrier to fail.
  20. At least one conspiracy theory of 2012-16 turns out to be true.
  21. There’s a major epidemic of a new infectious disease across a whole continent (or more).
  22. IBM is bought by/merged with another large US corporation (possible contenders: Microsoft, Apple, Google).
  23. Other deaths: Rupert Murdoch, the Dalai Lama, Jimmy Carter, George HW Bush.

Personal
Personal predictions have been documented but are redacted to protect both the innocent and the guilty.

  1. Knee Surgery 1. [[REDACTED]]
  2. Knee Surgery 2. [[REDACTED]]
  3. Pension. [[REDACTED]]
  4. Deaths amongst Family & Friends. [[REDACTED]], [[REDACTED]], [[REDACTED]], [[REDACTED]]
  5. Anthony Powell Society. [[REDACTED]]

I wonder if I can do any better than my pathetic 32% score for 2016 — but I wouldn’t advise anyone to put any money on it!
And if you have any good predictions please do share them.
[Updated 7 January 2017]

current affairs, ramblings

2016 Predictions, the Results

A year ago I dusted off my crystal ball and made a few predictions about what would happen in 2016. Now the results are in. So how did I do?

UK

  1. David Cameron will not succeed in negotiating any meaningful changes to UK’s membership of the EU. MAYBE; it all depends on your interpretation of “meaningful changes” but I suggest what was agreed amounted to little more than a few ribbons and bows
  2. Nevertheless Cameron declares a triumph & campaigns for the UK to stay in the EU. CORRECT
  3. However the UK electorate will vote narrowly to leave the EU. CORRECT; although a slightly larger margin than I expected
  4. This could lead to the downfall of the current government and a General Election. CORRECT in that the government changed; WRONG in that there was no General Election
  5. Labour’s Sadiq Khan wins the London mayoral election. CORRECT
  6. Boris Johnson is appointed to the cabinet in a summer reshuffle. CORRECT
  7. At least one very well-known UK company (or charity) goes into liquidation unexpectedly with 500+ job losses. CORRECT; BHS (11,000 job losses), Austin Reed (1000 jobs) just for starters
  8. The government will go ahead with a third runway at Heathrow despite adverse environmental evaluations. CORRECT; runway approved by the government although some form of consultation is suggested
  9. Consequently the value of property within 10 miles of the Heathrow flightpath falls by 20%. NOT PROVEN, too early to say
  10. Work starts on HS2 and Crossrail 2 despite the lack of available funding. CORRECT in that some enabling work has started for HS2; WRONG for Crossrail 2 as far as I’m aware
  11. Construction work starts on London’s “garden bridge”, also despite a funding shortfall; the project will never be completed. WRONG, as far as I know there has so far been no construction work although it was planned
  12. Inflation remains at about 1%. CORRECT
  13. Interest rates rise to 1% by YE. WRONG, they fell to 0.25%
  14. The FTSE 100 closes 2016 down 10% on the 2015 close. WRONG, FT100 closed up 900 (over 14%)
  15. At least one major “accident” (transport? industrial? terrorist?) with 50+ fatalities — and there’s a good chance it will be in London. WRONG
  16. Death of a senior member of the royal family. WRONG
  17. Prince Harry comes out as gay (or at least bi). WRONG
  18. Artist Banksy is finally unmasked; he turns out to be someone already well known. MAYBE; back in March the most likely candidate was identified by “geographic profiling” but not confirmed
  19. Bruce Forsythe and David Attenborough die. WRONG
  20. Arsenal win Premier League. WRONG, they came second to Leicester City
  21. Another warm, wet winter followed by a cold wet summer. CORRECT for the Winter; WRONG for Summer which was wetter than average for most of the UK but also marginally warmer

World

  1. Donald Trump will not win the Republican nomination in the US Presidential election. WRONG
  2. Hilary Clinton wins the US Presidential election by the tiniest of majorities. WRONG
  3. Relations between Turkey and Russia deteriorate further. MAYBE; this appears to have been true early in the year although they do seem to have improved latterly
  4. Fighting in Ukraine flares up again. WRONG, it doesn’t seem to have done — or has it just dropped off the news?
  5. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un dies unexpectedly, plunging the country into chaos and resulting in annexation by China. WRONG
  6. Dalai Lama dies, precipitating a diplomatic crisis with China. WRONG
  7. Major violence erupts in Egypt further damaging their tourist industry especially in the Nile Valley. WRONG, despite terrorist attacks on Egyptian airline flights
  8. Assad remains in power in Syria, possibly in a strengthened position as the West comes to see him as the least worst option. CORRECT
  9. Greece will have further financial troubles and will again come close to leaving the EU — and they may even be forced to leave. CORRECT that Greece is still in financial trouble and has had bailout loans delayed; WRONG that they’ve not been forced out of the EU
  10. Cyprus reaches some form of vague reunification agreement. WRONG, certainly I’ve not seen this announced anywhere
  11. The EU has to formally suspend Schengen Agreement. WRONG
  12. A further downturn in Chinese economy causes worldwide downturn. WRONG
  13. Oil prices remain low but fuel and domestic energy prices rise compared with the start of the year. MAYBE; Snapshot data: Brent Crude up from $35.75 to $57.19/barrel; Unleaded (UK avg) up from 103.1 to 116.87; Diesel (UK avg) up from 106.38 to 119.08
  14. At least two major airline, train, cruise liner or ferry accidents with 200+ fatalities (in total). CORRECT; major civilian plane crashes at Rostov-on-Don (Russia, 62 lost), EgyptAir (downed over Mediterranean, 66 lost), Chapecoense football team (in Columbia, 75 lost), PIA flight lost near Islamabad (48 lost) at the top four
  15. A naval vessel (Australian? Russian?) finds the wreckage of MH370, by luck as it is outside the search zone; it is too deep to be safely recovered. WRONG

Personal
Six personal predictions were documented and can now be revealed:

  1. I will finally be put on insulin, or an insulin mimetic. CORRECT
  2. All clear from AAA screening. CORRECT
  3. Colonoscopy finds more polyps, but they’re benign. WRONG, got an all clear
  4. Aunt Jessie, Uncle Cyril, cousin Anne and Auntie Olive all die. WRONG, all family members still present and correct as far as I know
  5. We will finally lose Harry the Cat, probably in February. CORRECT although it happened in January
  6. AP Conference will make a loss of around £2K (after subsidies) due to unforeseen costs and/or low take up – possibly the Americans don’t come because of a perceived terror threat. MAYBE; the Americans didn’t come and take-up was below plan, but the unplanned losses were only about £900

At first sight it looks as if I did a little better than for 2015; 30% hit rate this year compared with just 25% last year. But then as last year sometimes being wrong is actually good.
I’ll bring you my predictions for 2017 in a few days time.

current affairs, ramblings

Brexit means …

Brexit means what precisely? Or rather Brexit tells us what?
Forget “Brexit means Brexit”, that is no more than pure esoteric-mumbo-jumbo gold.
A few days before Christmas, Mark Easton, the BBC’s Home Affairs Editor, asked What did the Brexit vote reveal about the UK?
The answer was basically that it is a result of our dysfunctional political system and a cry for a return to proper democracy. Here are some key extracts:

The vote for Brexit was a thunderous rumble of national indignation, an outpouring of frustrated fury that shook the foundations of the British state. We misinterpret its meaning at our peril.
… … …
This was much more than a simple referendum about membership of the European Union. Neither Brussels bureaucrats nor Polish plumbers were really the motivation for a popular revolt unparalleled in almost five centuries.
This was an act of extraordinary defiance against a system that does not and will not listen to people’s concerns and anxieties … Our governance, our democracy, does not function properly. It is failing the people of this country. That is the message of Brexit.
… … …
Our politics is still routinely discussed in terms of left and right, workers and bosses, socialism and capitalism.
But look[ing] at the Brexit vote … these historic distinctions simply did not apply … The working class tended to vote Leave and yet most Labour supporters voted Remain. The professional middle-class tended to vote Remain but most Conservatives voted Leave.
… … …
I was very struck by the attitude of people I met in Port Talbot … What I [heard] were people who did not think anyone was listening to them. They felt powerless and ignored.
… Everything in Port Talbot depends on the steelworks and its future is decided by people whose names they do not know in a boardroom in Mumbai. Globalisation has robbed the people … of their voice …
There was a time when people up and down the land believed they had some kind of control over their destiny. But … Trade unionism has been neutered, local government is a shadow of its former self and political activism is … simply shouting into the wind. National elections are all but meaningless …
… … …
Decisions made in Westminster and Brussels resonate down to the supermarket shelves of Gloucestershire and local people do not feel they have had any say in the matter.
The Brexit campaign was centred on the idea of taking back control … a slogan that went far beyond the demand for control of our borders.
… … …
[T]he European Union was one obvious villain … It gives no impression of listening … national politicians are not listening either … Brexit was a cry of pain from a country that no longer believes that traditional democracy offers the answer.
… … …
[T]he challenge of Brexit [is] how to give people their voice … making that happen will require profound courage and imagination from our national political leaders because it necessarily means they give up some of their own power.
… … …
What the British people want … is a democracy honest enough to reveal the trade-offs and the complexities of contemporary politics, responsive enough to reflect nuanced opinions, and convincing enough that people believe they are genuinely connected to the decisions that affect their lives.
When we cut our ties with EU power, we must also reform Britain’s archaic power structures.

I think Easton may well be right. And as so often I couldn’t have expressed it better, hence the extracts.
To quote Robert Kubica, Everything is possible but everything will be difficult.
Interesting times we live in, innit!

beliefs, current affairs, freedom of speech, sexuality

Don't Criminalise Us …

The fight to get governments to decriminalise sex work (and sex workers) continues. Here’s a piece which highlights the views of Europe’s sex workers — most of whom are (voluntary, not trafficked) migrants.


It is notable that it isn’t just the sex workers who are saying sex work should be decriminalised. This view is backed by

major human rights organisations such Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, the World Health Organization and several other United Nations agencies such as UN Women and the UNAIDS Advisory Group on HIV and Sex Work are also calling for the decriminalisation of sex work, noting that decriminalisation guarantees better working conditions, and reduces the social vulnerability and marginalisation of sex workers.

And as that implies many are now warning that the basic human rights — as covered, for instance, by the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union — are being violated; and that those violations are state sanctioned the world over.
When are people going to wake up to what’s going on around us? It’s being done in our name, and yet how many of us agree with it?

beliefs, current affairs, sexuality

No Sex Please …

OK, so here’s another nasty, not so little, piece of legislation from the UK government.
The new digital economy bill, which is currently going through parliament, intends to block websites hosting “unconventional” sexual content. So who decides what is conventional, and who will implement and police such a ban?
There’s a piece in yesterday’s Guardian (yes, again!) which tries to explain the What, how and why?
Now whether you like so-called pornography or not, this is worrying. The legislation is ill-conceived and appears to be not just draconian but also potentially arbitrary and ill-defined.
Worse, my personal belief is that it infringes freedom of speech (and belief) and I would agree with critics of the bill who say it is not the government’s place to police what kinds of consenting sex (or indeed anything else) can be watched by adults.
I continue to believe that pornography (unless violent, coercive or involving minors) has a valuable place, just as does the rest of the sex industry. You, personally, may find it distasteful — just as I find the idea of male-male sex distasteful — but that doesn’t mean either should be banned and I would always defend your right to indulge should you choose.
The whole of the English-speaking world has a history of drawing its rules of censorship much more tightly than continental Europe. But that changed with the internet allowing information to be streamed direct to our homes without restriction. And the English-speaking, puritan, nanny state doesn’t like it.
It’s time we started treating people like adults and allowing them to make up their own minds. But to do that requires us to invest in sensible education of our children, and isn’t it easier to keep them in ignorance and subjugated?
So-called pornography is not being forced down people’s throats. It is complete myth that the internet is awash with porn at every turn and it’s being gratuitously feed to every child in the land. Yes, it is there, but you (whatever your age) have to look for it. My systems have every available filter turned OFF and still I do not get a continual stream of emails offering me penis enlargement (surely fairly tame?) nor does every Google search bring up 27,000 pages sex videos and bestiality.
It is worrying enough to have the state control our sexual predilections but the fear is that this will go way beyond pornography; it is the first example of any liberal democratic country creating an internet censor. The fear is what such a framework could go on to be used for.
Yes, this is censorship and as such must be resisted.
Wake up, the coffee pot is bubbling on the stove.

current affairs

Doomed. We're all Doomed.

There was a very depressing piece in yesterday’s Guardian from George Monbiot under a headline: The 13 impossible crises that humanity now faces.
Surprising as it may seem, given the frequency with which I refer to Monbiot, I don’t agree with everything he writes. And I don’t agree with all of this.
For instance I don’t buy his item 7: Job-eating automation. Automation never has reduced the demand for people and the number of jobs available. This was said about the industrial revolution and about computerisation. And in my view it has not turned out to be the case. What has happened is that the jobs have changed.
Notwithstanding the article is a worthwhile but sobering read, especially if you feel like you want to be depressed — or feel in need of a paradigm shift.

current affairs, words

A Word for Our Times: Kakistocracy

Kakistocracy
Government by the least qualified or worst persons.


The word derives directly from the Greek κάκιστος worst + -κρατία rule, but ultimately from the Indo-European root kakka-/kaka– (to defecate), which apparently also gave us poppycock, cacophony, cacology and cacography; as well as the Francophone caca. The earliest documented use was in 1829.
H/T: A.Word.A.Day

current affairs, ramblings, thoughts

2016, Monkeys on Your Grave

There are no words. Just really there are no words for the mess we’re getting ourselves in.
And really what is this year doing to us?
First, the Great British people vote, in a non-binding referendum, to take the UK out of the EU, and the government treats the result as binding. As someone near me observed the other day, never overestimate the intelligence of the great British public.
Then earlier this week the American people elect Trump — a self-confessed misogynist, racist, bankrupt, megalomaniac bully — to be their next President.
What is it about people that has caused such apparently idiotic choices?
Well it seems to me that it is partly down to the fact that too many people these days feel deeply pissed off, abused and disenfranchised.
Add to that the fact we are tribal — however much we like to think we aren’t. (I wrote briefly about racism and tribalism a while back in my Five Questions series.)
This means that when people’s backs are against the wall they will default to following their tribal instincts: xenophobia, racism, aggression, bullying. And, as a gross generalisation, the less intelligent people are the easier they find it to slip into tribal mode; those who can (and do) think are more able to rationalise and counteract such tendencies (although, of course, not all do as they may give a higher weighting to protecting their vested interests).
Thus, it seems to me, when people are so deeply pissed off, they will tend to vote for the more right-wing (Fascist) choice. This, they think, will satisfy their emotional and tribal needs. Hence another UK Conservative government, hence Brexit and hence Trump. And that’s despite the fact that such situations are so often the ones which will disenfranchise people further.
There is another factor at play here too. It’s “we don’t like what we’ve got so we’ll vote for something different”. We’ll have a change — that’s any change! — as it must be better. In an essentially bipartite democracy (UK, USA) that just means whoever isn’t in power. [Although this doesn’t explain the current UK Conservative government.]
So maybe we shouldn’t find the current mess quite so surprising.
So what next?
Well if, as the old wives tale has it, “things come in threes” and the year isn’t over “until the fat lady sings” we have about 7 weeks to survive. We’ve had Brexit (with its fallout), now Trump. What’s going to be the third almighty cock-up we can inflict on ourselves?
Keeley on Facebook has suggested the third cock-up is the Columbians voting down the proposed deal with FARC. I don’t know — I don’t know enough about this to be able to judge — but it could well be a good contender. We shall see.
Meanwhile just hang on in there and push back against racism, abuse, bullying wherever you can; ‘cos 2017 just has to be a better year.
And 2016: May a thousand monkeys dance sideways on your grave!

current affairs, ramblings, thoughts

Bexit Legal Thoughts

Another in our very occasional series thinking about some of the aspects of the “Brexit mess” the UK is now in.
[Note: What follows are largely my thoughts on the legal landscape as I see it, based on various legal items I have read over recent days and weeks. I am not a lawyer. This is not legal opinion. It is my ramblings.]
I am heartily sick of all the misinformation and stupid comment which is pervading the media waves at present. So in the wake of yesterday’s court judgement on the constitutional issues surrounding Brexit I thought a few (legal) facts about the mess we’re in were in order. These thoughts will be uncomfortable and unwelcome for the unthinking masses.

  1. We do NOT have a constitutional crisis. The UK constitutional process is working exactly as designed with the courts ruling on what is legally permissible and leaving the political shenanigans to Parliament and the Executive. Politicians may have brewed up a political crisis, but that is an entirely different kettle of fishcakes.
  2. The High Court judges are NOT against “the people” (a nebulous concept at the best of times) nor are they trying to stop us leaving the EU – neither is their role. If you read the Miller judgement the judges say this explicitly. Their role is to decide what is legally permissible under our constitution. Whether or not we leave the EU is a political decision on which the judges specifically do not comment.
  3. It is erroneous to say that the UK does not have a written Constitution. We do have a written Constitution (not my opinion, but legal opinion); it is all written down in common, statute and case law. It just isn’t codified (all tidily organised and in one place for easy reference); but it is written down.
  4. The Government does not HAVE to take us out of the EU. The Act enabling the referendum explicitly states (as both sides in the recent court case have admitted, and the judges agreed) that the referendum was only advisory. The Government is NOT bound by the result; they have made a political decision to follow it through.
  5. If there is a vote in the House of Commons, MPs are NOT bound to vote in favour of leaving the EU just because their constituents did. MPs are representatives of the people and are thus bound to vote in the way they believe is in the country’s best interests. (That does not mean they will, after careful thought, all come to the same opinion.) They are NOT mandated delegates who have to vote as their constituents tell them. Voting according to their own opinions and consciences is legally possible and allowed; whether anyone considers it politically expedient is a different matter.

Conclusion: What we have in the UK at present is a political crisis, of the Government’s making, and not a constitutional crisis.
Now will everyone STFU and act their age not their shoe size. Yes, Daily Mail, Daily Telegraph and others, I’m looking at you.