Once again this year I’ve disinterred my crystal ball and wiped the mud off. However it becomes cloudier by the day (yes, the ravages of age affect crystal balls too!) so despite regular consultations over the last month or so what follows are only my guesses at what may happen during 2021.

Actually this year I’ve found it very difficult to predict as there are too many unknowns and variables, and too much going on, due in large part to both Brexit and Covid-19. Hence the length of this year’s predictions.

As before, I’ve divided the predictions into sections: General, UK, World and Personal. Various items are redacted (although I have them documented) as some might be especially sensitive.

General

1. This should be a year of change, of healing, of reassessing what’s important and of rebuilding. But I fear it won’t be! There are too many who want to instigate violent protest or will angrily protect their vested interests.
   Watch out for flashpoints in mid-February, mid-June and immediately before Christmas.
2. If we do see a return to some semblance of normality, it is going to be late in the year and run on into 2022. Things will generally ease up in 4Q.
3. We should also see the technological and green revolutions, as well as smarter working practices, take off. If they do it will be in the middle 6 months of the year.
4. Watch out for travel delays and general buggeration during weeks 5-7, 21-25 and 39-41.
5. Also watch out for change around the time of eclipses, especially in areas where they are visible. This year we have: Lunar eclipses on 26 May (visible round the pacific rim), 19 November (eastern Pacific and Americas); Solar eclipses on 10 June (Arctic) and 4 December (Antarctic).
6. There are Supermoons on 27 April, 26 May and 24 June, and a Blue Moon on 22 August. These should all herald good news.

UK

1. The Queen abdicates unexpectedly, on or shortly after her 95^th birthday in April, citing failing health, and may die late in the year.
2. Boris Johnson resigns as PM in March, partly due to poor health. In true Roman style he declares a Triumph saying he “got Brexit done”.
   His successor is likely to be Michael Gove or Rishi Sunak and will be an even worse culprit of nepotism and cronyism while introducing some fresh blood.
   There is no prospect of an early general election.
3. There will be more division in politics and more stand-offs between local authorities and central government. Watch London, Manchester and Liverpool.
4. Elections due to be held in May (eg. London Mayor) will go ahead despite Covid-19 still being rampant.
5. Scottish independence referendum is possible in October/November but probably won’t happen until at least mid-2022 (and quite likely 2023).
   If it does happen, the result will be 55:45 in favour of independence.
6. Government budget deficit hits £500bn with no immediate prospect of falling.
7. UK GDP shrinks a further 5% year-on-year.
8. Unemployment rises to 10%.
9. Bank of England interest rate falls to 0% and could go negative.
10. UK is in recession again by mid-year.
11. In the Spring Budget:
    • Due to the budget deficit tax bands are not increased.
    • Tax rates are increased: 2% on both basic rate Income Tax and on VAT.
    • All UK pensions (state & private) are frozen by law for at least 3 years.
    • Duty on alcohol sold in pubs & restaurants is reduced by 30% in an attempt to help the industry.
    • Duty on alcohol off-sales, fuel and tobacco is increased.
12. Major discontent (already brewing in the last days of 2020) when UK fishing industry realise they won’t get their full fishing quotas back post-Brexit.
13. Despite the Brexit deal, there are major food shortages by February, due to Brexit import issues, effect of the new variant of Covid-19, and the lack of vaccinations. These could well last until June.
    Fruit & veg increases 50% in (retail) price – partly to constrain demand.
    Meat & fish also increase in price by 30%.
    Bread (and flour) prices double and supply is constrained due to poor 2020 grain harvests in UK and Canada as well as post-Brexit issues.
14. There is major disruption to movement of goods between Northern Ireland and the UK mainland.
    The border between Northern Ireland and the Republic continues to be very porous.
    It is concluded that the only solutions are either a hard border with the Republic or the reunification of Ireland. Neither is politically acceptable, but then neither is the current situation. Meanwhile the disruption continues while politicians on all sides spend the year gibbering in their corners and paralysed with indecision.
    A temporary hard border is however required to try to constrain the spread of Covid19.
15. The EU continues to impose travel restrictions on UK (due to Covid-19 and Brexit).
    Several countries follow France’s lead and insist that all UK travellers have visas to enter their country, regardless of reason or length of stay.
    As a consequence, travel outside the UK is difficult until mid-year.
16. All of which stimulates a popular movement to rejoin the EU. This will build slowly over a number of years, but will not be taken at all seriously until after 2025.
17. The government tries (again) to impose major reform on TfL. This leads to long-running industrial action by tube and bus workers and could see 30% of bus routes withdrawn permanently.
18. A strike (or other significant industrial action) by energy workers (I’m not sure if this is electricity, gas or oil) seems likely – probably in February or November/December.
19. Covid-19 wave 3 in January/February is due to the new strain of the virus and rules generally being ignored (especially in London and SE England). Lockdowns and restrictions (via tier) are ongoing until at least mid-year; this scuppers any hope of a quick recovery.
20. Covid shuts UK schools & universities for three months (January to March is most likely) causing major confusion and disruption.
    Many degrees and GCSE/A-levels are devalued due to doubts over the level of teaching and study possible.
21. There will be increased stress in 1Q and a further unexpected lockdown in 3Q. This fuels a further marked decline in mental health with antidepressant prescriptions up 25% during the year.
22. There will be problems with Covid-19 vaccine supply until around Easter, when there will be a turning point.
    There will be another turning point around September time.
23. A UK TV channel/company ceases broadcasting. Possibly Channel 5 or BBC3; less likely Sky or BBC4.
24. One of UK’s eight major supermarkets goes under. Most likely: ASDA, Morrisons.
25. The following will go into administration/cease trading as a result of the Coronavirus pandemic: Wetherspoons, Coda Falconry, Vagina Museum, 30% of pubs and restaurants, 30% of London theatres, Hull Trains, Eurostar.
26. [[REDACTED]]
27. There may well be a significant event (possibly a disaster) somewhere near Stoke-on-Trent and another in West Lothian.
28. There is likely to be a major train crash, with at least 10 dead.
29. Further structural damage will be found to London’s Hammersmith Bridge, and there may be a partial collapse. The bridge may have to be demolished.
30. Other deaths: Prince Philip, another senior royal, Frank Field, Philip Green, Monty Don, Bill Turnbull, Tariq Ali.

World

1. Trump continues to believe he won the election and refuses to leave the White House. He is finally removed in early February.
2. The Trump presidency leaves the US in a terrible state with lots of last minute, vindictive orders which cannot be easily rolled back.
3. Several Trump aides and family members are investigated for fraud and corruption, although prosecutions are hampered by non-cooperation and interference with witnesses.
4. Trump declines to follow precedent and refuses to bequeath his papers to the state or endow a library for them.
5. Joe Biden dies (probably due to a heart attack), leaving US with a woman president by default.
   This causes Trump to resurface and claim he should be President.
6. 2021 could possibly see the death of Donald Trump.
7. Expect several Covid-19 vaccines to be approved; most likely: Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, Oxford/AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson; there may be others.
   Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine will not be licensed in USA until there have been further trials.
   All western countries will license at least two of the above four.
8. However a really good vaccine (effective with long lasting protection) is not available in sufficient quantity until at least mid-year and will take 12 months or more to deploy fully in western countries.
   In consequence travel and isolation restrictions remain in place into 2022.
9. In good news there could well be some major medical breakthroughs. Cancer treatment looks to be the most likely.
10. There’s all out war between China and India, which threatens to pull in Russia and USA.
11. There is a crisis of some sort in North Korea (possibly the death of Kim Yong-un) which dangerously destabilises the country.
12. There is also a destabilising crisis in Venezuela.
13. A crisis in either Iraq or Iran could well descend into civil war.
14. There will be a major Islamic-based attack in Europe.
15. Japan starts dumping the tritium contaminated water from the Fukushima nuclear site into sea.
16. NASA’s Perseverance rover (to Mars) will fail on landing.
17. Catastrophic failure and demise of ISS, possibly due to a debris strike – although any on-board astronauts are able to evacuate to safety prior to final explosion.
18. Having returned to the skies, there’s another Boeing 737 MAX 8 crash, and the plane is grounded again.
    And at least one other major plane crash with over 100 dead.
19. Two major airlines fail; Virgin Atlantic is probably finally one of them.
20. There’s a major train crash somewhere in Europe
21. A major financial institution fails – it’s not clear where, but the US, Italy or Greece seem likely.
22. There may well be a significant event (possibly a disaster) somewhere around Spain or Portugal – possibly around the border between the two countries.
23. A magnitude 7 earthquake is likely in one of the countries on the west coast of South America.
    There will also be a magnitude 6 quake on the west coast of the USA.
    And at least one major volcanic eruption which causes disruption to air travel.
24. The world’s weather will be slightly cooler than in recent years (due to El Niña) but there will be an increase in the number and severity of storms and hurricanes.
25. Other Deaths: Bolsonaro, another prominent international politician (possibly Merkel), Rupert Murdoch, a current F1 driver.

Personal

1. Family 1: [[REDACTED]]
2. Family 2: [[REDACTED]]
3. Friends 1: [[REDACTED]]
4. Friends 2: [[REDACTED]]
5. Friends 3: [[REDACTED]]
6. Miscellaneous 1: [[REDACTED]]
7. Deaths: [[REDACTED]]

These have all been redacted as the content is bound to be sensitive to people I know, however they are documented in my files and will be reported on at the end of the year.

Obviously I shall keep a tally and will publish the results at the end of the year. Let’s hope we actually get a better year this year than we did last and that much of the above doesn’t come to pass.

This time last year I made a long series of predictions about what would happen during 2020. So what did I get right, and what wrong?

[Some of the items remain redacted to protect the sensitive and innocent.]

UK

1. Look out for natural disasters around 9-10/02 (snow), 9-10/03, 7-8/04 (very wet Easter), 6-7/05 (financial crash) (all of these dates are moon at perigee and full). CORRECT for 9-10/02 with Storm Ciara bringing heavy rain and high winds, with snow in the north. CORRECT for 9-10/03 which was again very wet and windy. VOID for 6-7/05 as this was an erroneous date for moon at perigee.
   Also 30-31/10 (plane crash) (moon is at apogee, full and a Blue Moon). WRONG
2. Penumbral lunar eclipse (visible in London) 10/01, 05/06, 05/07, 30/11 may also presage problems. CORRECT for 10/01 with the beginnings of the emergence of Covid-19. WRONG. for the other dates.
3. UK leaves EU on 31/01: UK will not request a further extension and anyway the EU wouldn’t grant it. CORRECT
   Leave deal will be unsatisfactory (basically the deal of 10/2019, passed due to Tory majority in the new parliament) containing many Henry VIII clauses (many of which will be abused before YE). CORRECT
4. Government cannot agree a trade deal with EU by YE. WRONG
   If the EU proposes an extension beyond YE 2020 the UK government will refuse it, thus cementing a total “no deal” Brexit. CORRECT; no extension was offered; indeed the UK government indicated it didn’t want any extension.
5. Boris Johnson continues to believe in unicorns and will ride out the economic turmoil following Brexit. CORRECT so far.
6. Corbin is replaced as Labour Leader by a woman; possibly one of Yvette Cooper, Stella Creasy, Angela Eagle, Angela Rayner. (Predicted before the runners and riders were declared.) CORRECT in that Corbin was replaced. However WRONG that the new leader would be female. Also WRONG that the named females would be in the final running for leader.
7. Despite attempts by UK and Ireland, the parties in Ulster are unable to agree a power sharing administration. WRONG; a new administration was agreed in January.
8. There’s a move to reunite Ireland as the post-Brexit border is unworkable. This could stimulate Sinn Féin take their seats at Westminster to try to push through the reunification. WRONG on all counts there.
9. Scotland is denied an independence referendum in 2020 by Westminster and fails to get a Supreme Court ruling in it’s favour. CORRECT that BJ would deny Scotland another referendum.
   The SNP will build resentment against Westminster in order to win elections (and maybe a referendum) in 2021/22. WRONG in that there is no major sign of SNP building discontent (more than normal).
10. Increasing calls for reform of electoral system (to some form of proportional representation) but they’re continually blocked by the government who implement boundary changes to cement their position. WRONG
11. HS2 gets the go-ahead and a feasibility study into extensions to Edinburgh/Glasgow and Cardiff. CORRECT; HS2 was given the go-ahead in February, with a proposal to extend to Glasgow surfacing in June.
12. Fracking is allowed to restart. WRONG; in fact Cuadrilla (who have the only UK fracking licence) have surrendered the fracking part of their licence.
13. Sadiq Khan wins a second term as London Mayor – but only just. VOID as the elections have been postponed to 2021 due to Covid-19.
14. Nigel Farage gets a peerage; John Bercow, Kenneth Clarke and Dominic Grieve do not. WRONG about Farage and Clarke. CORRECT about Bercow and Grieve.
15. Appointees to the Supreme Court (eg. the replacement for Lady Hale) are seen as being clearly political appointees, rather than appropriate legals. WRONG as far as I am aware.
16. Because of the economic turmoil the UK is in recession by YE. CORRECT; UK officially in recession by August, largely due to Covid-19.
    Unemployment hits 10%. WRONG; September’s unemployment was just 4.8%.
    Bank of England Interest Rate returns to 0%. WRONG; base rate was reduced but only to 0.1%.
17. Sterling plummets against dollar and Euro following the UK’s exit from the EU. CORRECT for Euro which fell from €1.18 to €1.11. WRONG for US Dollar which rose from $1.32 to $1.37.
18. Inflation rises to at least 10% by YE, mainly due to large cost increases in the food industry and hospitality sector. WRONG
19. FTSE falls 10% cf. start of year – due to Brexit and the financial crash. CORRECT; due to Brexit and Covid-19 the FTSE100 fell by 12.8% over the year.
20. Financial crash, probably in early May, with the possibility that a bank will fail. WRONG
21. S&P and/or Moody’s downgrade UK creditworthiness by two levels. WRONG
22. Mortgage interest rates hit 10% before YE. WRONG
    Average UK house prices fall by at least 10%. WRONG according to the ONS they increased by around 5%.
    Repossessions double. WRONG; repossessions fell dramatically although there was a significant rise in home owners with serious payment arrears.
23. Pensions (private & state) are compulsorily frozen. WRONG
24. Drug prices double as the US buys up the NHS. WRONG; if this has happened it’s been well hidden.
    Prescription charges are extended to everyone with no exemptions. WRONG
25. Either ASDA or Morrison’s fails or is taken over. CORRECT; ASDA was bought from Walmart.
    Debenhams finally fails. CORRECT
    Major problems for M&S and/or John Lewis – a partnership between the two looks likely. CORRECT about problems for both M&S and JLP although WRONG about an M&S/JLP tie-up.
26. Major drug/alcohol or fraud/fixing issue uncovered in one or more of UK athletics, rugby, cricket. WRONG
27. Extinction Rebellion fizzles out. PARTLY CORRECT in that ER have gone very quiet although they’re still around.
28. Diane Abbott and Theresa May are diagnosed with long-term illnesses. WRONG as far as we know.
29. Magnitude 4 or greater earthquake somewhere in UK. PARTLY CORRECT as there was a Mag 3.9 quake in Uxbridge in September.
30. At least 200 deaths in illegal migration attempts to the UK. VOID as I’ve been unable to find any consolidated data.
31. Plans announced to replace the Thames Barrier; work to start 2025 and complete 2040. WRONG
32. Announcement that London congestion charge zone will be expanded out to N & S Circulars in 2025/6. PARTLY CORRECT; this was proposed by government (and sooner than 2025/6) as part of a deal to provide extra funding for TfL; however it was eventually removed.
33. Relatively mild wet January/February followed by a cold wet spring & summer thus ensuring a poor fruit and grain harvest. WRONG as the winter was not especially warmer or wetter than of late; but CORRECT about the cool, wet Spring and Summer and the ensuing poor harvest.
34. Death of the Queen and Prince Philip. Possibly also Prince Charles, in an accident. William becomes King by YE. WRONG on every count.
35. Other Deaths: Edwina Currie, Gordon Brown, a royal duke, Kenneth Clarke, Jeffrey Archer, Dennis Skinner, Lord Heseltine, Lord Gowrie. WRONG on every count.

World

1. Trump wins 2020 Presidential election due to Democrat dissent over their candidate. WRONG
2. Saudi Arabia drastically cuts oil exports amid internecine turmoil. CORRECT; Saudi Arabia did cut oil exports but due to a fall in demand because of Covid-19.
3. Zimbabwe finally succumbs to outright civil war which spills over into South Africa. WRONG
4. South American countries descend further into right-wing government. WRONG
5. Rate of Amazonian deforestation increases. CORRECT
   Global temperature and CO₂ emissions continue to rise. CORRECT
   The COP26 climate talks in Glasgow (in November) end in disagreement and failure. VOID as the talks were postponed due to Covid-19.
6. Major violence (civil war?) in Turkey. WRONG
7. Violent uprising continues in Hong Kong and India. CORRECT for both Hong Kong and India.
8. Russia annexes one of the Baltic states. WRONG
9. Big solar geomagnetic storm causes major breakdown of satellites and infrastructure, probably across North America but possibly elsewhere. WRONG
10. Collision between two operational satellites (maybe as a result of geomagnetic storm). PARTLY CORRECT in that two (non-operational) satellites had a very close near-miss in January.
11. Boeing Starliner and SpaceX Crew Dragon both launch crewed capsules. One of them fails with loss of the crew. CORRECT in that SpaceX did launch crew, and in fact took crew to ISS. WRONG about a Boeing Starliner crewed mission and loss of crew in a failure.
12. At least one other major space mission fails. PARTLY CORRECT; with 10 orbital launch failures out of 112 (9%) this has been the most mission failures in a year since 1971.
13. Magnitude 7 or greater earthquake in California and another in Peru. WRONG
14. Greta Thunberg is burnt out and sinks out of sight to complete her education. PARTLY CORRECT in that Thunberg has gone very quiet although she’s still around.
15. At least one major global IT company fails (or is saved only by a takeover). WRONG
    Also a major airline and a shipping line. CORRECT for airlines; see, inter alia, Air Italy, Flybe, Virgin Atlantic.
    VOID for shipping as again I can find no good data, but given the state of the shipping industry it seems likely there were major failures.
16. Major plane crash in western Europe – possibly France – possibly controlled flight into terrain. PARTLY CORRECT Ukrainian Boeing came down near Tehran; all 176 onboard lost.
17. Ebola flares again in central Africa. CORRECT; there was an outbreak in DRC between June and November.
18. Significant new disease emerges (as MERS and SARS did); concern at possible pandemic. CORRECT (in Spades!) with the emergence of pandemic Covid-19.
19. Number of western countries ban vaping or include it in their anti-smoking regulations. WRONG
20. Amazon and/or Facebook is involved in a major anti-trust or privacy law suit. CORRECT; Facebook is facing major (anti-trust?) law suits in USA.
21. Deaths: Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Dalai Lama, Angela Merkel, Bill Gates, Rupert Murdoch. WRONG on all counts.

Personal

1. Personal (a), (b): [[REDACTED]] WRONG
2. Neighbours1 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]] WRONG
3. Neighbours2: [[REDACTED]] WRONG
4. Neighbours3: [[REDACTED]] WRONG
5. Local Community1 (a), (b), (c): [[REDACTED]] (a) & (c) WRONG; (b) CORRECT
6. Local Community2 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]] (a) CORRECT; (b) WRONG
7. Local Community3: [[REDACTED]] WRONG
8. Friends1 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]] WRONG
9. Friends2 (a), (b), (c): [[REDACTED]] (a) CORRECT; (b) & (c) WRONG
10. Friends3: [[REDACTED]] WRONG to the best of my knowledge
11. Friends4 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]] WRONG
12. Friends5 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]] WRONG but only just
13. Friends6: [[REDACTED]] CORRECT
14. Friends7: [[REDACTED]] WRONG to the best of my knowledge
15. Deaths: 11 named individuals [[REDACTED]] CORRECT for two individuals; WRONG for the other nine to the best of my knowledge.

These have all been redacted as the content is bound to be sensitive to people I know, however they are documented in my files and will be reported on at the end of the year.

Yet again this is a pathetic hit rate, although in my defence I suggest that really all bets were off this year due to Covid-19.

Tomorrow I’ll post my predictions for 2021. Watch this space.