Once again this year I’ve retrieved my crystal ball from the back of the wardrobe and dusted it off. However it becomes cloudier by the day so despite regular consultations over the last month what follows are my guesses at what may happen during 2020.

As before, I’ve divided the predictions into sections: UK, World and Personal. I figured that Brexit is now so likely to happen that it is “business as usual” and doesn’t warrant its own section. Note also that various items are currently redacted (although I have them documented) as some might consider them over-sensitive.

UK

1. Look out for natural disasters around 9-10/02 (snow), 9-10/03, 7-8/04 (very wet Easter), 6-7/05 (financial crash) (all of these dates are moon at perigee and full).
   Also 30-31/10 (plane crash) (moon is at apogee, full and a Blue Moon).
2. Penumbral lunar eclipse (visible in London) 10/01, 05/06, 05/07, 30/11 may also presage problems.
3. UK leaves EU on 31/01: UK will not request a further extension and anyway the EU wouldn’t grant it.
   Leave deal will be unsatisfactory (basically the deal of 10/2019, passed due to Tory majority in the new parliament) containing many Henry VIII clauses (many of which will be abused before YE).
4. Government cannot agree a trade deal with EU by YE.
   If the EU proposes an extension beyond YE 2020 the UK government will refuse it, thus cementing a total “no deal” Brexit.
5. Boris Johnson continues to believe in unicorns and will ride out the economic turmoil following Brexit.
6. Corbin is replaced as Labour Leader by a woman; possibly one of Yvette Cooper, Stella Creasy, Angela Eagle, Angela Rayner. (Predicted before the runners and riders are declared.)
7. Despite attempts by UK and Ireland, the parties in Ulster are unable to agree a power sharing administration.
8. There’s a move to reunite Ireland as the post-Brexit border is unworkable.
   This could stimulate Sinn Féin take their seats at Westminster to try to push through the reunification.
9. Scotland is denied an independence referendum in 2020 by Westminster and fails to get a Supreme Court ruling in it’s favour.
   The SNP will build resentment against Westminster in order to win elections (and maybe a referendum) in 2021/22.
10. Increasing calls for reform of electoral system (to some form of proportional representation) but they’re continually blocked by the government who implement boundary changes to cement their position.
11. HS2 gets the go-ahead and a feasibility study into extensions to Edinburgh/Glasgow and Cardiff.
12. Fracking is allowed to restart.
13. Sadiq Khan wins a second term as London Mayor – but only just.
14. Nigel Farage gets a peerage; John Bercow, Kenneth Clarke and Dominic Grieve do not.
15. Appointees to the Supreme Court (eg. the replacement for Lady Hale) are seen as being clearly political appointees, rather than appropriate legals.
16. Because of the economic turmoil the UK is in recession by YE.
    Unemployment hits 10%.
    Bank of England Interest Rate returns to 0%.
17. Sterling plummets against dollar and Euro following the UK’s exit from the EU.
18. Inflation rises to at least 10% by YE, mainly due to large cost increases in the food industry and hospitality sector.
19. FTSE falls 10% cf. start of year – due to Brexit and the financial crash.
20. Financial crash, probably in early May, with the possibility that a bank will fail.
21. S&P and/or Moody’s downgrade UK creditworthiness by two levels.
22. Mortgage interest rates hit 10% before YE.
    Average UK house prices fall by at least 10%.
    Repossessions double.
23. Pensions (private & state) are compulsorily frozen.
24. Drug prices double as the US buys up the NHS.
    Prescription charges are extended to everyone with no exemptions.
25. Either ASDA or Morrison’s fails or is taken over; Debenhams finally fails.
    Major problems for M&S and/or John Lewis – a partnership between the two looks likely.
26. Major drug/alcohol or fraud/fixing issue uncovered in one or more of UK athletics, rugby, cricket.
27. Extinction Rebellion fizzles out.
28. Diane Abbott and Theresa May are diagnosed with long-term illnesses.
29. Magnitude 4 or greater earthquake somewhere in UK.
30. At least 200 deaths in illegal migration attempts to the UK.
31. Plans announced to replace the Thames Barrier; work to start 2025 and complete 2040.
32. Announcement that London congestion charge zone will be expanded out to N & S Circulars in 2025/6.
33. Relatively mild wet January/February followed by a cold wet spring & summer thus ensuring a poor fruit and grain harvest.
34. Death of the Queen and Prince Philip.
    Possibly also Prince Charles, in an accident.
    William becomes King by YE.
35. Other Deaths: Edwina Currey, Gordon Brown, a royal duke, Kenneth Clarke, Jeffrey Archer, Dennis Skinner, Lord Heseltine, Lord Gowrie.

World

1. Trump wins 2020 Presidential election due to Democrat dissent over their candidate.
2. Saudi Arabia drastically cuts oil exports amid internecine turmoil.
3. Zimbabwe finally succumbs to outright civil war which spills over into South Africa.
4. South American countries descend further into right-wing government.
5. Rate of Amazonian deforestation increases.
   Global temperature and CO₂ emissions continue to rise.
   The COP26 climate talks in Glasgow (in November) end in disagreement and failure.
6. Major violence (civil war?) in Turkey.
7. Violent uprising continues in Hong Kong and India.
8. Russia annexes one of the Baltic states.
9. Big solar geomagnetic storm causes major breakdown of satellites and infrastructure, probably across North America but possibly elsewhere.
10. Collision between two operational satellites (maybe as a result of geomagnetic storm).
11. Boeing Starliner and Space X Crew Dragon both launch crewed capsules.
    One of them fails with loss of the crew.
12. At least one other major space mission fails.
13. Magnitude 7 or greater earthquake in California and another in Peru.
14. Greta Thunberg is burnt out and sinks out of sight to complete her education.
15. At least one major global IT company fails (or is saved only by a takeover).
    Also a major airline and a shipping line.
16. Major plane crash in western Europe – possibly France – possibly controlled flight into terrain.
17. Ebola flares again in central Africa.
18. Significant new disease emerges (as MERS and SARS did); concern at possible pandemic.
19. Number of western countries ban vaping or include it in their anti-smoking regulations.
20. Amazon and/or Facebook is involved in a major anti-trust or privacy law suit.
21. Deaths: Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Dalai Lama, Angela Merkel, Bill Gates, Rupert Murdoch.

Personal

1. Personal (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
2. Neighbours1 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
3. Neighbours2: [[REDACTED]]
4. Neighbours3: [[REDACTED]]
5. Local Community1 (a), (b), (c): [[REDACTED]]
6. Local Community2 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
7. Local Community3: [[REDACTED]]
8. Friends1 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
9. Friends2 (a), (b), (c): [[REDACTED]]
10. Friends3: [[REDACTED]]
11. Friends4 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
12. Friends5 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
13. Friends6: [[REDACTED]]
14. Friends7: [[REDACTED]]
15. Deaths: 11 named individuals [[REDACTED]]

These have all been redacted as the content is bound to be sensitive to people I know, however they are documented in my files and will be reported on at the end of the year.

Obviously I shall keep a tally and will publish the results at the end of the year. Let’s hope I do better this year than I have over the last several?

I’m conscious that much of the above will be in people’s “bad news” category. So this year I intend to also log good news stories. Good news is, of course, a rather flexible concept as it depends on one’s values of “Good” and “News”. The stories I log will therefore be ones which meet or exceed my personal, flexible and arbitrary values of Good and News. Hopefully there’ll be a list at the end of the year.

This time last year I made a series of predictions about what would happen during 2019. So what did I get right, and what wrong?
[Some of the items remain redacted to protect the sensitive and innocent.]

UK (Brexit)

Most of these predictions stand or fall on the outcome of the first two.

1. Despite all the clamour, there will not be a second referendum on Brexit, and even if there is the result will still be Leave. CORRECT
2. Parliament will not be able to agree the negotiated deal so Britain leaves the EU on 29 March with no deal, no fall-back plan, and no “implementation period”. WRONG as Brexit was delayed, twice.
3. All trade stops as it is discovered that WTO rules cannot be applied instantly and easily. Resolution takes at least 3 months. WRONG.
4. A hard border has to be implemented in Ireland almost overnight and is accomplished only by using troops. WRONG.
5. There’s surprise that airlines cannot fly in/out of UK, and this badly affects food/medicine supply. WRONG.
6. There are delays of up to a week (ie. that’s how long trucks have to queue) to get goods in/out to Europe via the seaports. Troops are required to manage the flow of trucks. WRONG.
7. UK economy is in recession by mid-year. WRONG; although it was close towards the latter part of the year.
8. Food and medicine supply issues are biting hard by end April as stocks run low and imports are almost impossible. There won’t be rationing but there will be significantly empty supermarket shelves. WRONG.
9. There’s no insulin available by end May. Lack of insulin and other diabetes drugs results in 5K excess deaths during the year and another 5K avoided only due to an increased rate of amputations. The NHS estimate that a further 50K have unnecessary adverse events. WRONG.
10. Due to import issues prices rise sharply and inflation hits 20% but stabilises to 5% by year-end. WRONG; inflation fell to 1.5% in November.
11. Bank base rate is reduced to 0% as the banking sector is unable to do business/make money. Most savings rates are 0% while the mortgage rate rises to at least 10% resulting in an increase of repossessions. WRONG.
12. House prices fall by 20-30%. WRONG; in October (latest data available) year-on-year house prices were up 0.8%.
13. At some point during the year £1 will be worth no more than $0.90, and €0.90 (although not necessarily at the same time). CORRECT (just!); in July we got to £1=€0.85 at some UK airports.
14. Moody’s downrate UK credit rating by at least two notches. WRONG; to my surprise.
15. Despite this the FTSE100 ends the year up 10%. CORRECT; FTSE100 was up just over 12% at close on 31/12.

UK (Other)

1. This is a year of trouble, unrest and pigeons coming home to roost – not all caused by Brexit but often due to incompetence and/or poor planning. Good news is in very short supply. CORRECT; see inter alia school kids striking for climate change, Extinction Rebellion, and many demonstrations about Brexit.
2. Theresa May resigns as PM, possibly due to ill health. CORRECT.
3. Andrea Leadsom becomes PM and appoints Jacob Rees-Mogg as Chancellor, with Boris Johnson as Deputy PM. WRONG.
4. Ulster sectarian troubles boil over again; multiple shootings / bombings by both sides. CORRECT; but not as much as I feared.
5. Labour Party adopts an official policy to re-unify Ireland. WRONG.
6. TfL is declared bankrupt, causing chaos for London travellers. The government refuses to provide a bail-out. This results in many redundancies, pruned services and upgrade projects, and protracted strike action. WRONG.
7. Work on Crossrail is paused, and the opening delayed to 2021. The Emirates Dangleway will close. Crossrail 2 is postponed by at least 3 years. CORRECT about Crossrail which will not now open until “sometime in 2021”. WRONG about the Dangleway. No good clues about Crossrail 2.
8. HS2 is cut back due to lack of funding. Heathrow Third Runway is also delayed due to lack of money. Hinkley C nuclear power station development is cancelled. CORRECT about Heathrow Runway 3 which will be delayed from 2026 to maybe as late as 2029. WRONG about HS2 and Hinkley Point C.
9. There’s a murder on my street. WRONG.
10. The Sussex’s baby [REDACTED] will be named Diana or Iris (if a girl); Robert or David (if a boy). WRONG.
11. A reintroduced wolf or lynx kills a human. WRONG.
12. Beavers are found to be colonising the upper reaches of the Thames basin. No-one knows (or will admit to) how they got there. WRONG.
13. A feral big cat (probably lynx or puma) is conclusively confirmed somewhere in the UK; it may be captured or shot to confirm the identification. WRONG; there were the usual purported sightings but no conclusive evidence.
14. Major terrorist attack somewhere in UK (probably London) kills 50 including a high profile politician or minor royal. PARTLY CORRECT; the major UK incident seems to have been the London Bridge attack with two, plus attacker, dead.
15. The country lurches even further towards pervasive surveillance and a police state with troops, and openly armed police, regularly on the streets in major conurbations. WRONG.
16. At least one train crash and one plane crash; each with 20 dead. WRONG.
17. A rail franchise will fail and have to be taken back into public ownership. WRONG.
18. A major hospital (in England) fails and closes unexpectedly. WRONG.
19. At least three major companies (possibly including a bank/building society and a supermarket) fail; 1000 job losses each. CORRECT: Patisserie Valerie, Jamie Oliver’s restaurants, Thomas Cook, Wrightbus, Mothercare.
20. Deaths: Bill Turnbull, Tariq Ali, George Monbiot, David Jason, Derek Jacobi, Richard Branson, Leslie Phillips, Prince Philip, another Royal Duke/Prince. WRONG on all counts.

World

1. Anthropologists discover that an isolated tribe (probably in Africa; possibly pygmies) is not Homo sapiens but another hominin species. WRONG.
2. DNA recovered from ancient hominin teeth totally changes our current understanding of human evolution. WRONG; although with the apparent discovery that people were in Australia much earlier than thought this might have been quite close.
3. Astronomers identify another extra-solar system “asteroid” visitor (like ‘Oumuamua) and prove this one is an alien spacecraft, although it appears to be dead. PARTLY CORRECT; another alien visitor has been found but it’s an asteroid.
4. The upgraded LIGO experiment fails to reproduce its previous detection of gravitational waves, throwing whole areas of physics into turmoil. WRONG.
5. There will be significant damage to ISS which forces its abandonment and a long pause in manned space-flight. WRONG.
6. Donald Trump is confirmed to be suffering from a mild form of dementia, but is ruled as still fit to govern. WRONG.
7. CO₂ emissions rise by at least 5% year-on-year in US, India and China. INCONCLUSIVE; although China was reported to be 4% up in 1H2019, there’s too little easily available data to judge.
8. In a petulant move, Russia cuts off gas supply to Europe for at least three months. WRONG.
9. The global average temperature for the year is at least 1°C above the long-term average. PARTLY CORRECT and it’s going to be very close; YtD data for November shows land+ocean temperature 0.94°C above the long-term average; land only 1.39°C; ocean only 0.77°C.
10. There’s a disease pandemic – cause currently unknown, but not flu, Ebola or Zika. WRONG.
11. There’s an outbreak of Ebola in South America; plus 6 cases in UK, not all imported. WRONG; just more Ebola in Africa.
12. Major terrorist attacks in western world: 1 in USA and 2 in other places; combined deaths 250. PARTLY CORRECT; several attacks, most notably New Zealand with 51 deaths, El Paso, Texas 22 dead.
13. More die in mass shootings in USA this year than in 2018. CORRECT; according to Wikipedia 486 deaths in 2019 cf. 387 in 2018.
14. Saudi Arabia annexes one or more of UAE, Dubai, Kuwait. WRONG.
15. A Chinese warship fires at a US Navy vessel in the South China Sea; this may be the start of a US/China war in the area. WRONG.
16. MH370 is found by accident in waters between Australia, Papua New Guinea and East Timor. One of the black boxes is recovered. WRONG.
17. At least one round the world sailor is lost at sea and never found (although the deserted yacht is found). WRONG.
18. There are three major transport accidents (plane/train/cruise liner/ferry) each with 100 deaths. PARTLY CORRECT; Ethiopian airliner crash with 157 dead, Iraqi ferry with about 100 dead, Pakistan train crash with 73+ dead; plus an Aeroflot plane crash (41 dead), Cairo train fire (25 dead), Chilean plane crash (38 dead).
19. There’s a major earthquake (around magnitude 8) along the Himalayas which causes widespread destruction in Tibet, Nepal and Bhutan with thousands of deaths. As a result the summit of Mt Everest is 1m lower. WRONG.
20. Deaths: Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Robert Mugabe, Pope Emeritus Benedict, Elon Musk, a major European politician. CORRECT about Mugabe. WRONG about the rest.

Personal

1. In family history, I finally unlock the brick wall in my Marshall line in mid-18th century, although I then get stuck at about 1700. WRONG.
2. Family. [REDACTED] PARTLY CORRECT.
3. Personal. I’m diagnosed with BPH (possibly low grade cancer) but surgery not required. WRONG.
4. Doctors. [REDACTED] CORRECT on one item. WRONG about the other two.
5. Friends 1. [REDACTED] WRONG.
6. Friends 2. [REDACTED] WRONG about the first part. CORRECT about the second part.
7. Friends 3. [REDACTED] WRONG.
8. Friends 4. [REDACTED] WRONG.
9. My total lottery winnings for the year are less than £50. WRONG, but still less than £200.
10. Deaths. [REDACTED] WRONG; of 14 people listed, two died in 2018 (unknown to me when making the predictions) and the other 12 are still on life as far as I am aware.

That is an absolutely pathetic hit rate for which I deserve to be sacked – lucky I’m not a football manager!

Tomorrow I’ll post my predictions for 2020. Watch this space.