I’ve been thinking recently about the UK’s current political mess. I don’t pretend that what follows is necessarily new or entirely original – I’ve certainly seen parts of it elsewhere, see for instance here and here – but I do find it illuminating as well as rather worrying.

It seems to me that the situation we’re in at the moment is a very nice combination of Henry VIII and Charles I. Bear with me …

First there was Henry VIII telling he Pope for f*** off (1532-4), for no reason other than his own vanity; and being excommunicated for his pains (1535). He also managed to ensure he was able to amend, or institute, any law he chose, at any time, with never-ending powers (effectively ignoring Magna Carta).

A hundred years later we have Charles I who thought he could rule by divine right, while ignoring and/or riding roughshod over Parliament. But Parliament was having none of it, thus leading to the Civil War and Interregnum of 1642-1660. Parliament, of course, won. When the Commonwealth fell apart (as such chaos so often does), the Restoration in 1660 brought a country with a more robust form of parliamentary government.

This seems to me to be more than a little like where we are at the moment.

We have a government (executive) who are basically telling the EU to f*** off, with exactly the reaction one would expect from an EU who hold all the cards. The executive are granting themselves Henry VIII powers – the ability to amend large swathes of legislation, as they choose, with no reference to Parliament. And they’re attempting to side-line and/or bully Parliament. Yet again Parliament is having none of it (despite not knowing what they do want) and is fighting back.

Ultimately I suspect Parliament will win (possibly with a little help from the Judiciary), but not before there’s been huge damage inflicted on the country as a whole. Eventually (in maybe 10 or 20 years) the country will hopefully emerge with strengthened parliamentary government and a fully codified and written constitution, although perhaps at the expense of a break-up of the federation.

But it will take many decades for the country to recover economic prosperity, and then only if the plunge into being an under-developed third-world country can be avoided. However I’ll not be here to see it.

It isn’t going to be pretty, or comfortable.

May your god go with you.