Category Archives: ramblings

personal, ramblings

Horrible Times 7

Today is Day 60 of quarantine for me. Yes, I’ve not been off the premises in the last 60 days; Noreen has been out just a handful of times, mostly just to the postbox.

It’s all a bit tedious, although everything seems to have settled down into a new non-rhythm – things aren’t as fraught was they were 6 weeks ago, although the thought of either of us getting this lurgy still induces a fit of the horrors.

Anyway, just by way of a small celebration, I though I would document half a dozen good, and the same number of not so good, things which have happened here in the last 60 days.

Good Not So Good
  • We’re managing to eat extremely well – probably better than normal – to keep the spirits up!
  • Super fruit & veg deliveries from First Choice Produce, as occasional treats
  • Spring sunshine & warmth
  • Roses already in full bloom, and some of the tulips have been magnificent this year (see below)
  • Been doing some gardening – though not as much as is needed
  • Friends helping each other, and looking out for each other
  • It’s just too hard to motivate oneself to do very much
  • Cannot get massage to ease my back
  • Idiot neighbours who have workmen in to do totally inessential work during lockdown
  • Other idiot neighbours who, while one member of the household is ill with Covid-19, have friends round for coffee
  • Death of a friend (not from Covid-19) and no funeral to go to
  • We had to buy a new fridge
Lady Hillingdon Rose
Lady Hillingdon Rose (click image for larger view)
Pink Tulip
Pink Tulip (click image for larger view)

Be good and stay safe, and hopefully the gods will allow us all to survive.

food+drink, ramblings

Ingredients

2 Comments

Being idle as I am, I fell to thinking about food. Well who doesn’t?

Now there are very few things I really will not eat. Oysters and tripe are two which immediately spring to mind.

But there are quite a few things which, if you show me a recipe or a menu item containing them, I’ll pass on by. Pretty much top of the list are:

  • Sweet Potato
  • Butternut Squash

however they are rapidly followed by:

  • Pomegranate
  • Pumpkin
  • Gnocchi
  • Polenta
  • Tofu
  • Sourdough
  • Spelt
  • Cavalo nero

Those top 10 are followed by a few lesser horrors which will be considered under duress:

  • Beetroot
  • Goat’s cheese
  • Kale
  • Cranberry
  • Sweetcorn
  • Egg custard

And there are a few cuisine choices/combinations I will avoid:

  • Anything sweet with meat – I can’t abide jam with meat!
  • Anything which is unnecessarily vegan
  • Pretty much anything that I don’t know what it is – why do all chefs have to always include something which no-one has ever heard of?

And I am sure there are others I’ve forgotten.

But why is this? Well obviously it is in part because I actually don’t like many of them them and sometimes that is down to texture as much as taste. I’d eat them if I had to but I’ll never choose to if there is a half-decent alternative. But it is also partly because many (though not all) are/have recently been trendy and fashionable, which I find an immediate turn-off – I’m resistant to jumping on bandwagons and following the herd: thank you, I’ll decide what I eat, drink, like, think, believe; I don’t need you to decide for me!

I’m sure I’m not alone in this. What do other people refuse to eat not necessarily because they dislike it?

environment, ramblings, science

Much More than Environmental Reform

My friend Ivan had recety started a new blog, Restored World. In Ivan’s words:

I have created this website to share my thoughts and reflections on how we might respond in new ways to the needs of our damaged, ailing world. What has led me to speak out here is my belief that our current way of thinking and doing things is not only inappropriate but continues to harm us.

It is clear from our collective struggles to even begin to address the climate emergency, the mass species extinction, increasing inequality, or other challenges such as the present spread of the Covid-19 pandemic, that we appear trapped … within an outdated mode of thinking that determines our functioning, a mode no longer appropriate to the immense challenges we face in the present global crisis.

We collectively all need renewal, myself included, if the world in which we live is to be restored. My hope is that this website, which is a personal account of my search for that renewal, can be a small contribution to our collective effort in imagining how we will restore our world.

Although Ivan and I are coming at the problem from different perspectives (and this blog is more wide-ranging) we seem to be singing from the same hymn sheet. Ivan is a thinker, and as a professional writer is much more eloquent in expressing his views than am I.

One thing reading Ivan’s thoughts has done is to goad me into finishing something I started long ago: encapsulating the way I see the complexity of environmental reform in a diagram.

Environmental Reform Diagram

Environmental reform isn’t easy. As the above diagram shows it involves a whole interdependent network of actions and effects which revolve around three core necessities:

  • Reform of Agriculture and Fisheries
  • Reform of Natural Resource Usage
  • Reform of Energy Production.

There are a number of obvious entry points to the network, although starting anywhere one can is better than not starting at all.

What this doesn’t show is the necessity to reduce our reliance on product, and reform both our dominant capitalist hegemony and our broken political system. Each will be another complex network and connecting these reform networks will be yet another level of interdependent network – and I haven’t thought about any of that, yet! We could start on this anywhere, in any of the networks, and hopefully actions in one place will flow through into the other networks.

None of this is easy. But we have to start somewhere and hopefully the current Coronavirus pandemic will trigger the paradigm shift we need, which will flow over into real action on climate change and global reform.

Wish us luck!

food+drink, ramblings

Recipe: Fruit & Frangipane Tart

Like many others during these times of woe I’ve been cooking more. Today was a baking day: as well as the headline Fruit & Frangipane Tart, we put together a small “jam” tart (using half a jar of very sticky mango compote), pineapple crumble (using fresh, rapidly ripening, fruit), and put some “spare” bananas in the dehydrator to dry. Anyway here’s the tart recipe …

Fruit & Frangipane Tart

This makes enough to fill a deep 23cm quiche tin (preferably one with a removable base) with a bit of pastry left over for the “jam” tart.

Ingredients: Pastry
400gm plain flour
200gm butter
50gm caster sugar
2 eggs, beaten
Milk
Pinch of salt

Ingredients: Fruit
1-2 coffee mugs full of pre-cooked “stewed” fruit of your choice (I used stewed rhubarb)
Extra sugar to taste

Ingredients: Frangipane
200gm ground almonds (I ground up some flaked almonds in a coffee mill)
200gm butter
180gm caster sugar
2 eggs, beaten
Zest of a lemon or orange
Generous tbsp vanilla essence

Method

  1. Heat the oven to 175°C.
  2. Make the sweet pastry according to your usual method adding the minimum amount of milk to make it bind together. Wrap in clingfilm and chill in the fridge for at least 30 minutes.
  3. Roll out the pastry and line the greased flan tin. Blind bake for 15 minutes.
  4. While the pastry case blind bakes, get the fruit and frangipane together.
  5. If necessary, drain any excess liquid from the fruit (I put mine in a sieve for 5 minutes and drained out an eggcup of juice) and sweeten to taste.
  6. To make the frangipane put all the ingredients in a bowl and beat together until they form a smooth paste. As I need the exercise I did this by hand (the end result will be quite stiff) but with the right attachment you could do this in a food processor.
  7. When the pastry case is ready, remove from the oven and allow to cool slightly before removing the baking beans. Turn the oven up to 180°C.
  8. Put a good layer of fruit in the pastry case and then a generous layer of frangipane (ie. all of it!).
  9. Return to the oven for 45-50 minutes until the frangipane is firm to the touch. If the frangipane is browning too much cover with a piece of foil.
  10. Remove from the oven and allow to cool before trying to remove the tart from the tin. Serve as either cake or pudding.

Notes

  1. As I’m not a good pastry cook (hot hands and not enough practice) you may wish to follow your own preferred method for the pastry.
  2. The jammier the fruit is the better it will set in the cooked tart.
  3. I found this made about 25-30% too much pastry. Use the extra to make jam tart(s).
current affairs, personal, ramblings

Horrible Times 6

I’ve now been in lockdown since midday on 12 March, when I got home from my annual diabetic eye check (which I was surprised wasn’t cancelled). That’s 24 days and counting. I thought I’d just make a few brief notes about the good and the not so good recent happenings.

Not So Good

  1. Being in a higher risk category, which brings on fearfulness and self-isolation.
  2. Being unable to do a supermarket shop, because our decent supermarkets are either a bus ride or a taxi ride away (‘cos we don’t drive), and that feels too risky for either of us.
  3. The total inability to book a supermarket delivery, any supermarket delivery. And when you do, 50% of what you order isn’t available.
  4. The almost total absence of some commodities like bread flour and long-life milk.
  5. An inability to sign up for a “veg box” delivery.
  6. The nice sunny weather means I shall have to do some gardening, as much as my back will allow …
  7. … because the garden is untidy and is threatening to get away from us while we can’t get anyone to work on it.
  8. Two (Arab-looking) guys wandering down the road this morning shoulder to shoulder, the younger wearing a mask and talking to his mobile. Totally oblivious to what 6 feet is.
  9. The government’s pathetic response to the crisis: too little, too late; inadequate support for healthcare workers; delayed lockdown; stupidity of expecting herd immunity; inadequate self-isolation advice for the infected; almost complete absence of testing, so they’ve no clue what is actually happening … it goes on …
  10. All of that covered by wall-to-wall rolling TV news (which I’m mostly ignoring).
  11. I’m missing my fortnightly massage: it does keep my damaged back working but it is also enjoyable socially too.
  12. I know I’m not someone who is always out and about, but even so being forced to stay grounded is somewhat wearing.
  13. The inability to rise above (or kill off) all the stupid things I (feel I) have to do so I can sit and relax and read.
  14. A feeling of vulnerability and impending doom. Suddenly one realises one is all too mortal. And I’m unable to get my head round what it’ll be like not to be here, and not to be able to do the things I am doing.
  15. And then one feels like a helpless mesmerised rabbit in the headlights due to the stress and anxiety which feed the depression – rinse and repeat.

Good

  1. All the valiant and heroic NHS people, transport workers, and food supply-chain workers who are putting themselves at risk to help people and keep things moving.
  2. There’s certainly a sense of history: that we’re living through an historic period much like the Black Death (1349) or the Great Plague of London (1665) and beginning (but only beginning) to understand what it must have been like then. Yes that’s macabre, but also interesting and in a way rather fun.
  3. The quiet! It is just so quiet: no traffic noise, no planes in/out of Heathrow, not even many screaming kids. If you added back in a few mooing cows and whinnying horses this must be much like it was 600 years ago.
  4. Add to that the light and air quality. The lack of traffic, planes etc. has really reduced the pollution. The air is fresh, clear and not smelling of diesel and kerosene. And the light is bright, almost with that special clear quality one is used to seeing in East Anglia.
  5. The friend, who despite being an NHS worker with an elderly mum, is helping us by getting the odd few provisions and a bunch of flowers.
  6. One of the supermarkets (which I won’t name) seem to have decided (how?) that I’m on the vulnerable list for deliveries. This could be useful.
  7. Meanwhile Noreen has been able to get to the (pretty rubbish) local shops for the odd essentials.
  8. At the beginning of all this I had managed to book several Waitrose deliveries and have struck lucky with the odd slot ere and there – so we’re doing OK for food.
  9. It’s a lovely warm sunny Spring day today (Sunday) and the week promises to be largely the same. That means the garden is getting green and the apple blossom is coming out.
  10. As of writing this we’re both still healthy.

medical, personal, ramblings

Horrible Times 1

2 Comments

Over the last weekend I started writing what I hope may become an occasional series of comment/diary entries emanating from the current mess known as Coronavirus. Here’s what I wrote on Sunday (lightly edited).

Sunday 15 March 2020 – Ides of March

This Coronavirus (Covid-19) is getting a grip of everyone. It looks like we’re in for a long haul, and a very messy one. Few of us trust the government’s strategy, which is at total odds with what the rest of the world are doing (except for the USA, and President Trump is an even bigger moron that Boris Johnson). The strategy may protect the over-70s for a bit, meanwhile it will rip through the rest of the population. Then the over-70s will succumb as soon as the restrictions come off, creating a second (and third etc.) wave before we’re near to having any treatment or vaccination options – don’t expect those within a year. Anyway it is now much too late; the genii is out of the bottle and in my estimation has been since probably mid-December (because the first case is now thought to have been in mid-November, but not recognised for what it was). So we needed to impose draconian social distancing measures very early, like back at New Year, if we really were to nip this in the bud.

I’ve already cancelled one of our doctor’s patient group events for this week, and my meeting the same morning with the Practice Manager. More will doubtless follow over the next few days. Others organising events I’m involved with as far ahead as mid-May are discussing cancelling them too.

Unfortunately I’m also minded to cancel my fortnightly massage sessions: not only because it’s a risk to me but also because my masseuse is newly pregnant and others working in the same practice are at significantly high risk. That makes me really sad as I enjoy the massage sessions and the chat, and it does help keep my back going. But we need to consider others in this as well as ourselves.

Amongst all this I’m really frightened and depressed. I’m almost 70 and with diabetes, obesity and sleep apnoea so I’m in a high risk category for serious complications if I do get Covid-19. And if I do I fear that it will kill me – either because my immune system is too compromised or because the hospitals won’t be able to cope and I’ll be a low priority for treatment.

I know the chances of me succumbing to this are relatively small, but that doesn’t make it any less frightening. So I feel my best hope is not to get this and be around long enough for either a good treatment or a vaccine.

But then I’m worried too that Noreen will fall ill. She’s not far behind me in age and she does have a long-term hereditary condition, although that doesn’t seem to affect either her immune system or lungs. Indeed her immune system, hitherto, has been so good it keeps many things under: she’s a Typhoid Mary. If Noreen does fall off her perch before me I know I shall be absolutely sunk: not because I can’t do what has to be done (although that may not be easy) but mentally; the depression will be completely overwhelming. Equally I know Noreen will struggle without me.

But what can we do? Both of us being risk averse as we are we’re inclined to behave as if we’re over 70, and self-isolate as much as we possibly can. Luckily we can (for now, at least) get grocery deliveries – not ideal but OK – and we have the reserves we built up against Brexit to help.

Even before all this I was beginning to feel my mortality and realising that I likely have only a few more years. The thought of not being here leaves me feeling deeply sad and almost terminally helpless. I’m starting to understand how, in his last years, my father just gave up the will to keep going.

It’s also interesting to start to really appreciate how frightening in must have been for people during the Black Death of 1348-9, the Plague of 1665, and the Spanish Flu of 1918-19; especially given that they really didn’t understand how any of this worked and what they could do to mitigate the diseases. In that sense at least we stand half a chance.

Please stay safe everyone!

amusements, current affairs, personal, ramblings

Predictions for 2020

Once again this year I’ve retrieved my crystal ball from the back of the wardrobe and dusted it off. However it becomes cloudier by the day so despite regular consultations over the last month what follows are my guesses at what may happen during 2020.

As before, I’ve divided the predictions into sections: UK, World and Personal. I figured that Brexit is now so likely to happen that it is “business as usual” and doesn’t warrant its own section. Note also that various items are currently redacted (although I have them documented) as some might consider them over-sensitive.

Disclaimer. I remind you that these are just my ideas of what could happen; they’re based solely on hunches and gut feel; I have no inside knowledge, I haven’t been studying the form, and I have a success rate of about 20%. So if you base any decision on any of this I will take no responsibility for your wanton act of idiocy or its consequences.

UK

  1. Look out for natural disasters around 9-10/02 (snow), 9-10/03, 7-8/04 (very wet Easter), 6-7/05 (financial crash) (all of these dates are moon at perigee and full).
    Also 30-31/10 (plane crash) (moon is at apogee, full and a Blue Moon).
  2. Penumbral lunar eclipse (visible in London) 10/01, 05/06, 05/07, 30/11 may also presage problems.
  3. UK leaves EU on 31/01: UK will not request a further extension and anyway the EU wouldn’t grant it.
    Leave deal will be unsatisfactory (basically the deal of 10/2019, passed due to Tory majority in the new parliament) containing many Henry VIII clauses (many of which will be abused before YE).
  4. Government cannot agree a trade deal with EU by YE.
    If the EU proposes an extension beyond YE 2020 the UK government will refuse it, thus cementing a total “no deal” Brexit.
  5. Boris Johnson continues to believe in unicorns and will ride out the economic turmoil following Brexit.
  6. Corbin is replaced as Labour Leader by a woman; possibly one of Yvette Cooper, Stella Creasy, Angela Eagle, Angela Rayner. (Predicted before the runners and riders are declared.)
  7. Despite attempts by UK and Ireland, the parties in Ulster are unable to agree a power sharing administration.
  8. There’s a move to reunite Ireland as the post-Brexit border is unworkable.
    This could stimulate Sinn Féin take their seats at Westminster to try to push through the reunification.
  9. Scotland is denied an independence referendum in 2020 by Westminster and fails to get a Supreme Court ruling in it’s favour.
    The SNP will build resentment against Westminster in order to win elections (and maybe a referendum) in 2021/22.
  10. Increasing calls for reform of electoral system (to some form of proportional representation) but they’re continually blocked by the government who implement boundary changes to cement their position.
  11. HS2 gets the go-ahead and a feasibility study into extensions to Edinburgh/Glasgow and Cardiff.
  12. Fracking is allowed to restart.
  13. Sadiq Khan wins a second term as London Mayor – but only just.
  14. Nigel Farage gets a peerage; John Bercow, Kenneth Clarke and Dominic Grieve do not.
  15. Appointees to the Supreme Court (eg. the replacement for Lady Hale) are seen as being clearly political appointees, rather than appropriate legals.
  16. Because of the economic turmoil the UK is in recession by YE.
    Unemployment hits 10%.
    Bank of England Interest Rate returns to 0%.
  17. Sterling plummets against dollar and Euro following the UK’s exit from the EU.
  18. Inflation rises to at least 10% by YE, mainly due to large cost increases in the food industry and hospitality sector.
  19. FTSE falls 10% cf. start of year – due to Brexit and the financial crash.
  20. Financial crash, probably in early May, with the possibility that a bank will fail.
  21. S&P and/or Moody’s downgrade UK creditworthiness by two levels.
  22. Mortgage interest rates hit 10% before YE.
    Average UK house prices fall by at least 10%.
    Repossessions double.
  23. Pensions (private & state) are compulsorily frozen.
  24. Drug prices double as the US buys up the NHS.
    Prescription charges are extended to everyone with no exemptions.
  25. Either ASDA or Morrison’s fails or is taken over; Debenhams finally fails.
    Major problems for M&S and/or John Lewis – a partnership between the two looks likely.
  26. Major drug/alcohol or fraud/fixing issue uncovered in one or more of UK athletics, rugby, cricket.
  27. Extinction Rebellion fizzles out.
  28. Diane Abbott and Theresa May are diagnosed with long-term illnesses.
  29. Magnitude 4 or greater earthquake somewhere in UK.
  30. At least 200 deaths in illegal migration attempts to the UK.
  31. Plans announced to replace the Thames Barrier; work to start 2025 and complete 2040.
  32. Announcement that London congestion charge zone will be expanded out to N & S Circulars in 2025/6.
  33. Relatively mild wet January/February followed by a cold wet spring & summer thus ensuring a poor fruit and grain harvest.
  34. Death of the Queen and Prince Philip.
    Possibly also Prince Charles, in an accident.
    William becomes King by YE.
  35. Other Deaths: Edwina Currey, Gordon Brown, a royal duke, Kenneth Clarke, Jeffrey Archer, Dennis Skinner, Lord Heseltine, Lord Gowrie.

World

  1. Trump wins 2020 Presidential election due to Democrat dissent over their candidate.
  2. Saudi Arabia drastically cuts oil exports amid internecine turmoil.
  3. Zimbabwe finally succumbs to outright civil war which spills over into South Africa.
  4. South American countries descend further into right-wing government.
  5. Rate of Amazonian deforestation increases.
    Global temperature and CO2 emissions continue to rise.
    The COP26 climate talks in Glasgow (in November) end in disagreement and failure.
  6. Major violence (civil war?) in Turkey.
  7. Violent uprising continues in Hong Kong and India.
  8. Russia annexes one of the Baltic states.
  9. Big solar geomagnetic storm causes major breakdown of satellites and infrastructure, probably across North America but possibly elsewhere.
  10. Collision between two operational satellites (maybe as a result of geomagnetic storm).
  11. Boeing Starliner and Space X Crew Dragon both launch crewed capsules.
    One of them fails with loss of the crew.
  12. At least one other major space mission fails.
  13. Magnitude 7 or greater earthquake in California and another in Peru.
  14. Greta Thunberg is burnt out and sinks out of sight to complete her education.
  15. At least one major global IT company fails (or is saved only by a takeover).
    Also a major airline and a shipping line.
  16. Major plane crash in western Europe – possibly France – possibly controlled flight into terrain.
  17. Ebola flares again in central Africa.
  18. Significant new disease emerges (as MERS and SARS did); concern at possible pandemic.
  19. Number of western countries ban vaping or include it in their anti-smoking regulations.
  20. Amazon and/or Facebook is involved in a major anti-trust or privacy law suit.
  21. Deaths: Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Dalai Lama, Angela Merkel, Bill Gates, Rupert Murdoch.

Personal

  1. Personal (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
  2. Neighbours1 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
  3. Neighbours2: [[REDACTED]]
  4. Neighbours3: [[REDACTED]]
  5. Local Community1 (a), (b), (c): [[REDACTED]]
  6. Local Community2 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
  7. Local Community3: [[REDACTED]]
  8. Friends1 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
  9. Friends2 (a), (b), (c): [[REDACTED]]
  10. Friends3: [[REDACTED]]
  11. Friends4 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
  12. Friends5 (a), (b): [[REDACTED]]
  13. Friends6: [[REDACTED]]
  14. Friends7: [[REDACTED]]
  15. Deaths: 11 named individuals [[REDACTED]]

These have all been redacted as the content is bound to be sensitive to people I know, however they are documented in my files and will be reported on at the end of the year.

Obviously I shall keep a tally and will publish the results at the end of the year. Let’s hope I do better this year than I have over the last several?

I’m conscious that much of the above will be in people’s “bad news” category. So this year I intend to also log good news stories. Good news is, of course, a rather flexible concept as it depends on one’s values of “Good” and “News”. The stories I log will therefore be ones which meet or exceed my personal, flexible and arbitrary values of Good and News. Hopefully there’ll be a list at the end of the year.

amusements, current affairs, personal, ramblings

Predictions for 2019: The Results

This time last year I made a series of predictions about what would happen during 2019. So what did I get right, and what wrong?
[Some of the items remain redacted to protect the sensitive and innocent.]

UK (Brexit)

Most of these predictions stand or fall on the outcome of the first two.

  1. Despite all the clamour, there will not be a second referendum on Brexit, and even if there is the result will still be Leave. CORRECT
  2. Parliament will not be able to agree the negotiated deal so Britain leaves the EU on 29 March with no deal, no fall-back plan, and no “implementation period”. WRONG as Brexit was delayed, twice.
  3. All trade stops as it is discovered that WTO rules cannot be applied instantly and easily. Resolution takes at least 3 months. WRONG.
  4. A hard border has to be implemented in Ireland almost overnight and is accomplished only by using troops. WRONG.
  5. There’s surprise that airlines cannot fly in/out of UK, and this badly affects food/medicine supply. WRONG.
  6. There are delays of up to a week (ie. that’s how long trucks have to queue) to get goods in/out to Europe via the seaports. Troops are required to manage the flow of trucks. WRONG.
  7. UK economy is in recession by mid-year. WRONG; although it was close towards the latter part of the year.
  8. Food and medicine supply issues are biting hard by end April as stocks run low and imports are almost impossible. There won’t be rationing but there will be significantly empty supermarket shelves. WRONG.
  9. There’s no insulin available by end May. Lack of insulin and other diabetes drugs results in 5K excess deaths during the year and another 5K avoided only due to an increased rate of amputations. The NHS estimate that a further 50K have unnecessary adverse events. WRONG.
  10. Due to import issues prices rise sharply and inflation hits 20% but stabilises to 5% by year-end. WRONG; inflation fell to 1.5% in November.
  11. Bank base rate is reduced to 0% as the banking sector is unable to do business/make money. Most savings rates are 0% while the mortgage rate rises to at least 10% resulting in an increase of repossessions. WRONG.
  12. House prices fall by 20-30%. WRONG; in October (latest data available) year-on-year house prices were up 0.8%.
  13. At some point during the year £1 will be worth no more than $0.90, and €0.90 (although not necessarily at the same time). CORRECT (just!); in July we got to £1=€0.85 at some UK airports.
  14. Moody’s downrate UK credit rating by at least two notches. WRONG; to my surprise.
  15. Despite this the FTSE100 ends the year up 10%. CORRECT; FTSE100 was up just over 12% at close on 31/12.

UK (Other)

  1. This is a year of trouble, unrest and pigeons coming home to roost – not all caused by Brexit but often due to incompetence and/or poor planning. Good news is in very short supply. CORRECT; see inter alia school kids striking for climate change, Extinction Rebellion, and many demonstrations about Brexit.
  2. Theresa May resigns as PM, possibly due to ill health. CORRECT.
  3. Andrea Leadsom becomes PM and appoints Jacob Rees-Mogg as Chancellor, with Boris Johnson as Deputy PM. WRONG.
  4. Ulster sectarian troubles boil over again; multiple shootings / bombings by both sides. CORRECT; but not as much as I feared.
  5. Labour Party adopts an official policy to re-unify Ireland. WRONG.
  6. TfL is declared bankrupt, causing chaos for London travellers. The government refuses to provide a bail-out. This results in many redundancies, pruned services and upgrade projects, and protracted strike action. WRONG.
  7. Work on Crossrail is paused, and the opening delayed to 2021. The Emirates Dangleway will close. Crossrail 2 is postponed by at least 3 years. CORRECT about Crossrail which will not now open until “sometime in 2021”. WRONG about the Dangleway. No good clues about Crossrail 2.
  8. HS2 is cut back due to lack of funding. Heathrow Third Runway is also delayed due to lack of money. Hinkley C nuclear power station development is cancelled. CORRECT about Heathrow Runway 3 which will be delayed from 2026 to maybe as late as 2029. WRONG about HS2 and Hinkley Point C.
  9. There’s a murder on my street. WRONG.
  10. The Sussex’s baby [REDACTED] will be named Diana or Iris (if a girl); Robert or David (if a boy). WRONG.
  11. A reintroduced wolf or lynx kills a human. WRONG.
  12. Beavers are found to be colonising the upper reaches of the Thames basin. No-one knows (or will admit to) how they got there. WRONG.
  13. A feral big cat (probably lynx or puma) is conclusively confirmed somewhere in the UK; it may be captured or shot to confirm the identification. WRONG; there were the usual purported sightings but no conclusive evidence.
  14. Major terrorist attack somewhere in UK (probably London) kills 50 including a high profile politician or minor royal. PARTLY CORRECT; the major UK incident seems to have been the London Bridge attack with two, plus attacker, dead.
  15. The country lurches even further towards pervasive surveillance and a police state with troops, and openly armed police, regularly on the streets in major conurbations. WRONG.
  16. At least one train crash and one plane crash; each with 20 dead. WRONG.
  17. A rail franchise will fail and have to be taken back into public ownership. WRONG.
  18. A major hospital (in England) fails and closes unexpectedly. WRONG.
  19. At least three major companies (possibly including a bank/building society and a supermarket) fail; 1000 job losses each. CORRECT: Patisserie Valerie, Jamie Oliver’s restaurants, Thomas Cook, Wrightbus, Mothercare.
  20. Deaths: Bill Turnbull, Tariq Ali, George Monbiot, David Jason, Derek Jacobi, Richard Branson, Leslie Phillips, Prince Philip, another Royal Duke/Prince. WRONG on all counts.

World

  1. Anthropologists discover that an isolated tribe (probably in Africa; possibly pygmies) is not Homo sapiens but another hominin species. WRONG.
  2. DNA recovered from ancient hominin teeth totally changes our current understanding of human evolution. WRONG; although with the apparent discovery that people were in Australia much earlier than thought this might have been quite close.
  3. Astronomers identify another extra-solar system “asteroid” visitor (like ‘Oumuamua) and prove this one is an alien spacecraft, although it appears to be dead. PARTLY CORRECT; another alien visitor has been found but it’s an asteroid.
  4. The upgraded LIGO experiment fails to reproduce its previous detection of gravitational waves, throwing whole areas of physics into turmoil. WRONG.
  5. There will be significant damage to ISS which forces its abandonment and a long pause in manned space-flight. WRONG.
  6. Donald Trump is confirmed to be suffering from a mild form of dementia, but is ruled as still fit to govern. WRONG.
  7. CO2 emissions rise by at least 5% year-on-year in US, India and China. INCONCLUSIVE; although China was reported to be 4% up in 1H2019, there’s too little easily available data to judge.
  8. In a petulant move, Russia cuts off gas supply to Europe for at least three months. WRONG.
  9. The global average temperature for the year is at least 1°C above the long-term average. PARTLY CORRECT and it’s going to be very close; YtD data for November shows land+ocean temperature 0.94°C above the long-term average; land only 1.39°C; ocean only 0.77°C.
  10. There’s a disease pandemic – cause currently unknown, but not flu, Ebola or Zika. WRONG.
  11. There’s an outbreak of Ebola in South America; plus 6 cases in UK, not all imported. WRONG; just more Ebola in Africa.
  12. Major terrorist attacks in western world: 1 in USA and 2 in other places; combined deaths 250. PARTLY CORRECT; several attacks, most notably New Zealand with 51 deaths, El Paso, Texas 22 dead.
  13. More die in mass shootings in USA this year than in 2018. CORRECT; according to Wikipedia 486 deaths in 2019 cf. 387 in 2018.
  14. Saudi Arabia annexes one or more of UAE, Dubai, Kuwait. WRONG.
  15. A Chinese warship fires at a US Navy vessel in the South China Sea; this may be the start of a US/China war in the area. WRONG.
  16. MH370 is found by accident in waters between Australia, Papua New Guinea and East Timor. One of the black boxes is recovered. WRONG.
  17. At least one round the world sailor is lost at sea and never found (although the deserted yacht is found). WRONG.
  18. There are three major transport accidents (plane/train/cruise liner/ferry) each with 100 deaths. PARTLY CORRECT; Ethiopian airliner crash with 157 dead, Iraqi ferry with about 100 dead, Pakistan train crash with 73+ dead; plus an Aeroflot plane crash (41 dead), Cairo train fire (25 dead), Chilean plane crash (38 dead).
  19. There’s a major earthquake (around magnitude 8) along the Himalayas which causes widespread destruction in Tibet, Nepal and Bhutan with thousands of deaths. As a result the summit of Mt Everest is 1m lower. WRONG.
  20. Deaths: Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Robert Mugabe, Pope Emeritus Benedict, Elon Musk, a major European politician. CORRECT about Mugabe. WRONG about the rest.

Personal

  1. In family history, I finally unlock the brick wall in my Marshall line in mid-18th century, although I then get stuck at about 1700. WRONG.
  2. Family. [REDACTED] PARTLY CORRECT.
  3. Personal. I’m diagnosed with BPH (possibly low grade cancer) but surgery not required. WRONG.
  4. Doctors. [REDACTED] CORRECT on one item. WRONG about the other two.
  5. Friends 1. [REDACTED] WRONG.
  6. Friends 2. [REDACTED] WRONG about the first part. CORRECT about the second part.
  7. Friends 3. [REDACTED] WRONG.
  8. Friends 4. [REDACTED] WRONG.
  9. My total lottery winnings for the year are less than £50. WRONG, but still less than £200.
  10. Deaths. [REDACTED] WRONG; of 14 people listed, two died in 2018 (unknown to me when making the predictions) and the other 12 are still on life as far as I am aware.

That is an absolutely pathetic hit rate for which I deserve to be sacked – lucky I’m not a football manager!

Tomorrow I’ll post my predictions for 2020. Watch this space.

personal, ramblings

Ten Things, December

This year our Ten Things series is focusing on each month in turn. The Ten Things may include facts about the month, momentous events that happened, personal things, and any other idiocy I feel like – just because I can. So here are …

Ten Things about December

  1. Decem – the tenth month of Roman calendar
  2. Yule is celebrated by pagans on the Winter Solstice
  3. Advent is the four weeks leading up to …
  4. … Christmas Day
  5. St Lucia, is the Scandinavian festival of lights (right)
  6. Roman Saturnalia ran for five days staring on 17th
  7. Feast of St Nicholas, which in many European countries is more important than Christmas Day
  8. Meteorological Winter starts on 1st
  9. Shortest Day
  10. Murder of Thomas Beckett, 1170
personal, ramblings

Ten Things, November

This year our Ten Things series is focusing on each month in turn. The Ten Things may include facts about the month, momentous events that happened, personal things, and any other idiocy I feel like – just because I can. So here are …

Ten Things about November

  1. Novem – ninth month of Roman calendar
  2. All Saints Day and the pagan festival of Samhain both fall on 1st …
  3. … followed by All Souls the following day
  4. St Andrew
  5. Beaujolais Nouveau is released on the third Thursday
  6. The Sunday before the beginning of Advent is the Feast of Christ the King, which is also traditionally also Stir-up Sunday, when one makes Christmas Puddings
  7. Guy Fawkes Day, celebrating the defeat of terrorism
  8. US Thanksgiving is on the fourth Thursday
  9. London Lord Mayor’s Show
  10. Hecate Night