Category Archives: ramblings

current affairs, ramblings, thoughts

Despair, or not?

I’m beginning to get despondent — no, let’s have this right, I’m now getting ever more deeply despondent — about the EU Referendum on 23 June.
I’m worried that the great British public will vote to LEAVE the EU. They certainly will if the current opinion polls are anything to go by as most seem to be showing LEAVE several points ahead with relatively few undecided voters. Typically the polls I’ve seen in the last week seem to be showing roughly REMAIN on 42% and LEAVE on 44%.
What deepened my worries is the state of mind of the “unthinking masses”. There’s a group on Facebook for the town where I grew up — a town now predominantly populated by people I can only best describe as “Essex chavs” (although that does do an injustice to many). Someone bravely put a poll on the Facebook group asking what people would vote. When I looked a few minutes ago the figures were REMAIN 28, LEAVE 158.
WHAT! Yes, that’s right, almost 6:1 in favour of LEAVE. I find that really scary because it implies that the LEAVE campaign’s fear-mongering, mostly on immigration, has got through to the minds of the less critical masses.
I fear that Joe Public is going to vote according to his tribal and xenophobic, Daily Mail, mindset — just as in many other things he (and she) will always vote with their wallet. Even many immigrants, and children of immigrants, are saying they’ll vote LEAVE because of immigration.
Now don’t get me wrong. I’m OK with a LEAVE vote as long as it is based on some concrete foundations. However I know that Joe Public doesn’t work that way; he votes according to his fears and predilections, not because of good logic. Remember the old research which says that 5% of people can think and do; 5% of people cannot think; the other 90% can thing but just can’t be bothered — and that is partly because they have never been properly taught to do so.
It is going to take an awful lot of thinking citizens to overcome odds like that.
Part of the problem is that people cannot grasp that this whole thing is a big gamble; but a gamble where no-one knows what any of the odds are! This was summed up a couple of days ago by Martin Lewis of moneysavingexpert.com under the title How to vote in the EU referendum. His article is quite nicely balanced; Lewis points out the good and the bad with the EU. Here are a few key snippets:

It’s the biggest consumer decision any of us will ever make. It affects our economy, foreign policy, immigration policy, security and sovereignty. Our vote on whether the UK should leave the EU will reverberate through our lifetimes, and those of our children and grandchildren.
… … …
My mailbag’s been drowning with questions and concerns. The biggest being: “Please just tell us the facts, what’ll happen if we leave?” I’m sorry, but the most important thing to understand is: there are no facts about what happens next.
Anyone who tells you they KNOW what’ll happen if we leave the EU is a liar. Predicting exact numbers for economic, immigration or house price change is nonsense. What’s proposed is unprecedented. All the studies, models and hypotheses are based on assumptions — that’s guesstimate and hope.

Oh, and that applies equally to both sides of the debate! There are no facts; just guesses.
Lewis goes on to recommend that we “do some reading on useful independent sites that run through the issues” and suggests we start with The UK in a Changing Europe which is run by King’s College, London and pools balanced articles from all sides.
He then, quite rightly, points out …

… for most people this comes down to a risk assessment.
A vote for Brexit is unquestionably economically riskier than a vote to remain. Yet don’t automatically read risk as a bad thing. It simply means there’s more uncertainty …
Leaving the EU risks us being left on the sidelines …
Or we could in the long run become a nimble low-tax, low-regulation, tiger economy …
The likely truth is of course somewhere between the two. But most independent analysis suggests Brexit will be detrimental to the economy.
… … …
The volume of uncertainty means the only way to make the right decision is based on your political attitude to the EU, your gut instinct, and how risk-averse you are on each area that matters to you.

All I would say is please do this consciously, after carefully weighing the options, and don’t necessarily go just with your gut feelings (important though they are). In the words of Frank Zappa “a mind is like a parachute — it doesn’t work if it is not open“.
I happen to think that on balance leaving the EU would be the worse option — and heaven knows there’s so much about the EU I don’t like. But I could be wrong. We all could be wrong. As with all things there is no “RIGHT” answer.
And remember, again as Lewis comments, “the future is always a journey” but the path is crazy paving and you lay it yourself as you go along.
Good luck! We’re all going to need it whichever path we take.

amusements, ramblings

Oddity of the Week: The Chap Olympiad

The Chap Olympiad returns to London’s Bedford Square this summer on Saturday 16 July.
For the last several years “the Chap Olympiad has provided track, field and bar events for the floppy of hair, the rakish of trilby and the elegant of trouser” in “celebration of Britain’s sporting ineptitude: sensational cravats take precedence over sweaty lycra; more points are awarded for maintaining immaculate trouser creases than crossing the finishing line“.


Events include Umbrella Jousting (above), the Well Dressage Event, Beach Volleybowler, and Gentlemen’s Club Golf (below).

The Chap Olympiad, which opens with the ceremonial lighting of the Olympic Pipe, “is a gathering place for the most eccentrically dressed sportsmen and sportswomen of the nation“. And despite the name the Olympiad is by no means restricted to those of the male gender.
More information, pictures and tickets at www.thechapolympiad.com.

current affairs, ramblings

More Brexit: 8 EU Myths

An update to the theme on the EU referendum …
There’s a graphic floating around the intertubes containing, more or less, the following text which refutes 8 of the top myths about the EU.
It is partisan — but then so is everything! — as it is published by the European Parliamentary Labour Party despite appearing on a Leeds University website.
Items 4 & 6 could be debated as I’ve not checked the data — though I’ve no good reason, other than a general mistrust, to disbelieve it. I doubted item 3 and did check the numbers; it turns out to be correct. The other 5 points also appear to be fairly accurate.
So here are 8 EU myths busted …

  1. Most of our laws come from Brussels. Just 13.2% of our laws have anything to do with Brussels according to the House of Commons Library. This figure includes everything that mentions the EU, even if it’s just for ‘passing reference’ or a definition.
  2. European laws are made by unelected bureaucrats. The European Commission only proposes laws. It is the directly elected European Parliament and the Council of the EU (Government Ministers) that debate, amend and ultimately pass European legislation.
  3. Norway and Switzerland enjoy all the benefits despite not being an EU Members. The Norwegians and Swiss must pay into the EU and also abide by EU Trade Regulations — without actually being able to influence any of them. Norwegians make roughly the same per capita contributions to the EU as Britons.
  4. EU migrants are a drain on the economy. EU migrants contribute more to the UK exchequer in taxes than they claim in benefits. Economists at University College London estimate that EU migrants contributed over £20bn to the UK economy between 2001 and 2011.
  5. The EU does nothing to help ordinary people. The EU has ensured safe working hours, introduced higher levels of annual leave and extended parental leave. It was also the EU that established the legal principle that men and women should receive equal pay for equal work.
  6. Our most important markets are China & the USA. The EU is the world’s largest single market. Half of Britain’s exports go there, accounting for some 3.5 million British jobs.** The UK sells more to the Netherlands alone than to the whole of China.
  7. European Court of Human Rights forces its will on UK. The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) has nothing to do with the EU. It is part of the Council of Europe — an entirely separate institution that was setup by Britain after the Second World War.
  8. The British are different. All EU members states have their different languages, cultures, histories and laws. No one joins the EU to lose their identity. In fact, the EU’s motto is ‘United in Diversity’.

Make of it what you will.
** Though note that there is no suggestion all these jobs would disappear if we left the EU, merely that currently they are focussed on the EU.

amusements, ramblings

Oddity of the Week: Tube Announcements

This week we’re stretching the definition of “oddity” a little more than usual.
Last year Londonist published a couple of selections of amusing announcements London Underground tube train drivers have made over their tannoy systems. Here is a selection of the best …
Sorry for the delay, we are just waiting to clear a drunk dancing topless man from the tunnel.
Would the guy with the piano accordion please put your trousers back on.
Apologies for the delay but we have lost the driver.
We are currently experiencing delays on the Northern line due to a handbag on the line at Bank.
Ladies and gentleman, upon departing the train, may I remind you to take your rubbish with you. Despite the fact that you are in something that is metal, fairly round, filthy and smells, this is a tube train for public transport and not a bin on wheels.
Please do not obstruct the closing doors. Specifically, please do not use your children as a wedge to hold the doors open.


Please keep your kids with you at all times. Even the annoying ones.
Don’t forget to take your children and livestock with you.
Please let passengers off the train before boarding. It’s not the storming of the Bastille you know.
There’s a dog on the line ahead. They’ve sent a manager to rescue it. That’s not going to help.
[10 minutes later]
The dog is now at Plaistow. So it’s making better time than us.
This train is early and is now being delayed so that it is late. I don’t understand this either.
Mind your fingers, mind your toes, watch the doors, they’re gonna close.
I can assure the passenger in the second carriage that it is not raining in the train. Please put your umbrella down.
For those of you alighting here at Willesden Junction, welcome back to paradise.
There are lots more here and here.

beliefs, current affairs, ramblings

Brexit Reprise

Following on from my earlier post To Brexit or Not to Brexit, there was an interesting article by Stephen Curry in the Guardian on Monday 23 May under the banner

Why I am wrong about Brexit, and you are too

The crux of his argument is that we can never actually be right, because there are too many variables and unknowns. Indeed it is as he quotes Kathryn Schulz: “the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle of Error: we can be wrong or we can know it, but we can’t do both at the same time“.
In other words we can either “know we’re wrong” or “are wrong but think we’re right” so we have real problems making reliable judgements about anything. Which really goes back to what I’ve always maintained:

  1. You can never have all the information required to make a decision; if you had all the information it would be a fait accompli not a decision.
  2. No-one sets out to make a bad (aka. wrong) decision. We make the best decision we can with the information we have at the time. And that information includes the price of herrings, Granny’s favourite breakfast cereal and the predilections of your brain.

As Curry also says: “We are hardwired to make snap judgements based on limited information“.


Ah, you say, but we have experts to guide us. Well yes, up to a point Lord Copper. To quote Curry again:

I don’t have the time to figure all this stuff out for myself, and so I have to rely on the experts … The trouble with experts or authority figures is that people will tend to accept or reject those who are in sympathy with their prejudices … the real aim of [academic experts] is to argue from authority. The same goes for … business leaders … economists, and even … leading luvvies. These messages don’t challenge strongly held views. Rather they offer the comfort of expert blessing … for opinions that are inevitably formed from incomplete information. At best they will nudge a few undecideds from the fence but the rest of us simply feel validated and carry on undeflected.

So the bottom line is that you have to make up your own mind, on incomplete (or even misleading) information, and hope that you’re as little wrong as possible. And Curry helpfully suggests a few websites which appear (and I use “appear” deliberately) to be relatively impartial to help you decide on the facts. The most useful are probably:
Fullfact.org, a non-partisan fact-checking charity, and
the analysis produced by the Libraries of the House of Commons and the House of Lords.
Good luck … you’re going to need it!

amusements, ramblings

More Auction Amusements

Here’s another in our series of the strange and weird from our local auction house.
Left’s start off with something which is an occasional visitor, but turns up in a flock in this sale: stuffed birds (all separate lots) …
A stuffed songbird on a branch in a Victorian glass cabinet
A taxidermy barn owl in shrubs, under glass dome on mahogany base
A taxidermy barn owl on tree stump under glass dome on mahogany stand
Taxidermy: a Hen Harrier on wooden base under glass dome
A taxidermy kestrel on rocky base in glass and wooden case
Followed quickly by …
A rare mounted vintage animal head, probably a blackbuck, with one with normal horn, the other withered, on a wooden shield, with fragmentary taxidermist label from Byculla, Bombay
But then …
Two goatskin rugs, unused
The goats must have been mighty cold!
After which we sadly have to descend into the relatively ordinary …
A collection of cigarette cards; (some in albums) on the topics of dogs, The Reign of King George V, motor cars, railway engines, etc. also loose cards including fish, English period costumes, History of Army uniforms, Typhoo tea cards, ‘Cellarius’s Ancient Atlas New edition 1835’, and a leather bound album of old photographs concealing a hidden musical box
An Elizabeth II silver clown orchestra of five musicians, each performing on loaded circular base, 6″ and smaller, London import marks for 1974
An antique brass turban box plus a Johnson and Ravey brass cased mechanical spit
A large decorative silver coloured vase, a decorative bird in cage, a silver plated hinged pen box plus other decorative ethnic bowls, jars and dishes
A good selection of vintage shoe horns to include one Bakelite and metal, plus oriental leather canvas and beaded shoes, etc.
A collection of animal figurines including a large zebra, frogs, parrot, a Russian horse, cats, and a collection of Laurel & Hardy fridge magnets, a Nao figurine of a girl, and a Beswick figure of a Robin.
A large pale [sic] and lid [actually it’s a churn, not a pail] plus two further smaller pales [sic] with handles, and another, also a wicker log basket
An antique oriental bronze temple
In pieces!
An unusual Edward VIII commemorative toilet roll holder, circa 1936, with an unopened pack of Tri-Sol medicated toilet paper (price 6d), together with twelve Wedgwood Edme undecorated coffee cups and saucers
An interesting Chinese bronze large cover, possibly to a brazier, Ming dynasty or later, cast with the eight trigrams and with inscriptions, with two handles, 39 cms across
Just the lid; nothing to go with it!
A box of old fishing floats, several glass and wrought iron table lamps, a box of wooden items including animal figurines and boxes, a quantity of old horse shoes, a box of vintage tins, some commemorative, and a box of glassware including pressed coloured glass and a Cornishware storage jar and cover, plus others
A charming lot comprising a handsome Marks Garage, lot also includes a small quantity of vehicles, some boxed including a Corgi Toys Bentley Continental Sports Saloon, a Corgi Classic 9031 Renault, unboxed vehicles include a Ford Zephyr, by Meccano, a Dinky Aveling-Barford and a yellow Dinky Super Toy Mobile Crane, lot also contains a silver plated tea pot on stand and milk jug and sugar bowl, etc.
A Vintage ‘BP Zoom’ metal petrol pump
An unusual garden ornament in the form of an obelisk on concrete plinth
A vintage Agricastriol hand delivery pump for oil in original green cabinet
And finally three things I never thought to see, and certainly ot away from the big auction houses …
A single manual harpsichord by William Dowd, Paris 1975, in a blue painted case with gold line decoration, the sound board painted with flowers and raised on a turned painted stand. This lot comes with a padded removers case, a small leather attaché case of tools and a red pouch of tools.
A two manual harpsichord by William Dowd, Paris 1975, the blue painted case with gold line decoration raised on stop fluted tapering legs. This instrument comes with a padded removers case and a red pouch of tools.
And especially …
A Brookes Champion Standard B17 reproduction penny farthing

environment, ramblings

Oddity of the Week: Street Names

This week we’ll take a quick look at street names. Not just any street names but the less salubrious ones that could have been found in historic London.
John Rocque’s 1746 map of London, a brilliant resource, shows an absolute warren of little alleys, courts and slightly larger lanes. Many, of course, took their names from local inns, churches, commercial establishments or trades. Hence …
Thread Needle Street, which now houses the Bank of England.
Black Friars, named for the nearby monastery.
Of Alley (near Strand) which is one of a group of streets named for the various components of landowner George Villiers, Duke of Buckingham’s name and title.
Dunghill Mews, off Trafalgar Square, which is now the site of the Canadian High Commission.
Whore’s Nest, a self-explanatory name of a courtyard in Southwark along with the nearby Dirty Lane, Foul Lane and Little Cock Alley.
And then, of course there are the even more ribald. London was not the only place to sport a Gropecunt Lane, in fact London apparently had several so named. To which we can only add Shitteborwelane (now Sherborne Lane) off the now King William Street, which was so named to the vast amounts of ordure it once contained.
But one of my favourites, and not at all salacious, is the relatively recent Ha-Ha Road in Greenwich.


The Londonist has more!

current affairs, ramblings

To Brexit or Not to Brexit?

2 Comments

So should the UK stay in the EU or leave? This is the question we are being asked to decide at the referendum on 23 June.
Importantly there is the question of whether anyone can make anything other than an emotional decision. And I suspect the vast majority of the great British public — or at least those who bother to vote — will do just that: make an emotional decision.
How can they do otherwise? Because no-one actually knows the consequences of either staying or leaving, and all we’re hearing is speculation, guesswork and wishful thinking. I have yet to find anyone with a reliable crystal ball.
As I have an almost total mistrust of everything which comes from the mouths of politicians, I’ve been almost completely ignoring the hot air, waffle and rhubarb which is permeating our airwaves.
Nonetheless we do need to try to come to some sort of rational decision, so in the following table I’ve attempted to pull together what little we do know of the facts, for and against, staying and leaving the EU. It isn’t easy, and some of this is still undoubtedly emotionally biassed, although I’ve tried to avoid this.
So this is the state of play as I see it.**

  For Against
Stay in the EU

  1. Human Rights protection (although much of that is down to the ECHR, not part of the EU, so a separate issue)
  2. Workers’ rights protection (holiday, equal pay, maternity leave, working hours)
  3. Some protection from the worst ravages of UK government
  4. European Arrest Warrant
  5. Open international trade
  6. Inward funding for universities
  7. Large farm subsidies
  8. Free movement (in and out of UK) — yes that means easy visa-free travel to Spain, Cyprus, Greece etc. on holiday as well as for Europeans coming here
  9. Ability to buy (cheaply) and import alcohol and tobacco for personal use …
  10. … which (probably) keeps UK duty down
  11. Flights and mobile phone charges are among the goods and services that are cheaper, because of EU regulation
  12. Curtailing of market abuse by corporations like Microsoft
  13. British tourists enjoy free or cheaper healthcare in other EU countries

  1. Fewer border controls
  2. TTIP
  3. Cost of membership
  4. Huge, expensive and unchecked bureaucracy
Leave the EU

  1. More border controls
  2. More control of tax (eg. VAT)
  3. Fewer food etc. regulations
  4. Decreased Nanny State micromanagement. Well maybe?
  5. No TTIP? Well maybe?
  6. No Common Agricultural Policy

  1. Opens up unhindered privatisation of NHS by government with no checks and balances — although to be fair TTIP may do that too
  2. Are trade deals (not just with Europe) negotiable? And even if they are how long will it take? See for instance Canada.
  3. Possible loss of rights for ex-pat Brits living in Europe
  4. Possible dismantling of workers’ protection
  5. Probable dismantling of human rights (although much of this is not directly EU controlled)
  6. Households allegedly ~£4300 a year worse off by 2030. Ummm, maybe.
  7. Possible barriers to travel to Europe (eg. visas)
  8. UK would still have to contribute to the EU budget to retain access to the single market. See Norway and Switzerland.
  9. It’s a complete leap in the dark; no-one has a clue what will happen because no-one has been here before

That looks to me like a good case for staying in the EU. But of course, you should all do your own research, decide how important you feel each of the factors to be and make up your own minds. All I ask is that you make a properly informed decision — the best decision you can, at the time, with the information you have (and that information includes the proclivities of your brain).
Sadly, though, I suspect the British public will be beguiled by the speculative arguments and sound bites of those campaigning to leave. If they are, it really will be a leap in the dark, because no-one knows what will happen. So gawdelpus!

20/05/2016 Update
I promised updates, so here is the first. In the last few days I’ve come across this graphic from Richard Murphy of Tax Research LLP.


Click the image for a larger view

It appears to refer to the way in which the 2014 “tax take” was used by the government. If we assume the data is correct, then we pay just 0.37% of our taxes to the EU (yes, it’s that tiny figure at 12 o’clock on the pie chart). Now that strikes me as being eminently reasonable.
In fact extrapolating the figures from this recent Daily Telegraph article suggests that the net cost of the EU is in the region of £100 a year per person in the UK. Which again seems to me to be eminently reasonable.

** I will try to update this as we go along if any new evidence (as opposed to spin, myth and guesswork) appears.