Category Archives: ramblings

current affairs, personal, ramblings

Predictions for 2018 — The Results

This time last year I made a series of predictions about what would happen during 2017. So what did I get right, and what wrong?
[Some names have been redacted to protect the sensitive and vulnerable.]

UK

  1. Brexit. It becomes clear that no Brexit deal is possible, but no-one has the courage to cancel Brexit so the UK is sleepwalking over a cliff to become a third world country (economically and socially) by 2020. CORRECT
  2. The government will ensure that, despite its expressed wish, Parliament does not have a meaningful vote on the final Brexit deal. CORRECT, so far
  3. Increasing sexual harassment claims in Parliament and involving members of the government, on top of divisions over Brexit, are likely to bring down the government. WRONG
  4. However, it’s unlikely there will be a General Election, but if there is it will be won by Labour with a tiny majority. CORRECT; no general election
  5. Michael Portillo is given a peerage and a seat in the Cabinet. WRONG
  6. Boris Johnson is replaced as Foreign Secretary by one of David Davies, Liam Fox or Michael Gove. PARTLY CORRECT; Boris did resign but was replaced by Jeremy Hunt
  7. Part of the Palace of Westminster collapses and the whole building is evacuated long-term, and may even have to be demolished. WRONG
  8. UK interest rates rise twice during the year, each time by 0.25%. WRONG; only one rise
  9. Inflation remains at 3.0-3.5%. WRONG; inflation actually declined to 2.2%
  10. Stamp Duty relief for first-time buyers pushes property prices up by 10%. WRONG; house prices rose by 2.7% in the year to October (the latest figures available)
  11. Tesco try to buy another supermarket chain but are prevented from doing so by the Monopolies Commission. WRONG; although Sainsbury and Asda were discussing a merger
  12. Waitrose close 20 stores across UK by YE and record an operating loss. WRONG; Waitrose recorded a profit although parent company John Lewis made a loss; nonetheless Waitrose announced 5 store closures
  13. Ryanair buy/merge with EasyJet. WRONG
  14. Move to regulate and meter all London taxi fares (including all private hire). WRONG
  15. Uber wins the appeal over its withdrawn operating licence in London. CORRECT; and Uber was given a 15 month licence
  16. Heavy flu season with many hospitals unable to cope with demand, contributing to 10,000 excess deaths. PARTLY CORRECT; it was a heavier than usual flu season with an estimated 6000 excess deaths
  17. At least two major disasters (industrial, train crash, plane crash etc.) with a combined total of over 200 fatalities. WRONG
  18. Driverless vehicles kill six cyclists in the UK. WRONG
  19. Red Arrows are disbanded after another fatal accident. PARTLY CORRECT; there was another Red Arrows-related fatality but the group is still operational
  20. Murders. At least 5 murders within 8km (5 miles) of my house. CORRECT; I counted 10 by mid-year and then gave up counting; one murder was just a mile away
  21. No snow in London for the whole of 2018 with temperatures 2°C above average across the year. WRONG; there was snow in January and February; temperatures look to have been about average overall across the year
  22. Prince Harry’s wedding day will be wet. WRONG; the day was dry, sunny and warm
  23. Meghan Markle gives birth less than 9 months after her wedding to Prince Harry. WRONG; although she is now pregnant this appears to have happened after the wedding
  24. Deaths: Prince Charles, a current England cricketer, [REDACTED], [REDACTED]. WRONG on all four counts

World

  1. There’s an attack on Donald Trump’s life, which results in the death of several bodyguards and assailants, but only minor injuries to Trump. WRONG
  2. Average of one terror-related attack a month across Europe (including UK) with total fatalities in excess of 120. PARTLY CORRECT; according to Wikipedia plus some I noted there have been around 25 terrorist-related attacks in Europe this year, but they have amounted to only around 26 deaths (including the perpetrators)
  3. It’s unlikely North Korea will fire a nuclear weapon at the US to start WW3, but quite possible the US will fire first probably with conventional weapons. PARTLY CORRECT; North Korea didn’t attack the US and the US didn’t mount a premptive strike
  4. Kim Jong-un will fall from power in North Korea. WRONG
  5. There could be military conflict over China’s appropriation of islands in the South China Sea. WRONG
  6. Vladimir Putin is re-elected as Russian President; in fact there’s a good chance he will be the only candidate. CORRECT; Putin was the only serious candidate
  7. US lose a submarine and are unable to rescue the crew. WRONG
  8. Ukraine is proven to be illegally selling radioactive materials, and cannot/will not identify all the buyers. WRONG
  9. Saudi Arabia. Assassinations in the Saudi royal family [DETAILS REDACTED]. WRONG
  10. Civil war in Zimbabwe which spills over into South Africa due to uncertainties about the South African presidency. WRONG
  11. The Pope is embroiled in controversy possibly surrounding a significant shift in core Catholic theology. WRONG
  12. At least one space disaster (possibly on the ground) which kills two; and at least one major inter-planetary mission is lost in transit. PARTLY CORRECT; Soyuz launch malfunction with 2 crew doing a safe emergency descent.
  13. Euro – Dollar – Pound parity. WRONG
  14. There’ll be a major financial crash, with long-term knock-on effects, although it’s not clear if this will be in US, Europe or the Far East. WRONG
  15. At least two household name companies are hacked with over 100 million sets of personal information exposed. CORRECT; MyHeritage 92 million; Facebook 50 million; Dixons Carphone 5.9 million amongst the front runners
  16. Uber buys Lyft. WRONG
  17. Two of Amazon, Google and IBM merge. WRONG
  18. Scientists believe they have discovered extra-terrestrial life (not necessarily intelligent). WRONG
  19. Major eruption of Vesuvius or Mt Etna with widespread destruction and mass evacuation, but fewer than 50 fatalities. PARTLY CORRECT; eruption of Mt Etna on Christmas Eve and following days; reports of damage due to associated earthquakes; few casualties
  20. Magnitude 7 or above earthquake in California which, with continuing drought, all but destroys their fruit production. WRONG; although several Mag 7 or above quakes in USA/Mexico
  21. At least one major US city will be destroyed (and quite possibly permanently abandoned) due to a severe hurricane (possibly New Orleans, Orlando, Miami). PARTLY CORRECT; Hurricanes Florence and Michael had a pretty good shot, with Michael effectively destroying the town of Mexico Beach, FL
  22. Massive collapse of another Antarctic glacier or ice sheet. CORRECT
  23. Poland beat Russia in FIFA World Cup final, with Denmark and Brazil as losing semi-finalists. WRONG
  24. Other deaths: Dalai Lama. WRONG

Personal

  1. Anthony Powell Society. I stand down as Secretary of AP Soc, but there is no replacement identified triggering discussions about winding up the Society. PARTLY CORRECT; I did stand down but there were replacements
  2. Noreen has a major medical problem from which she recovers, although this forces a rebalancing of household tasks. WRONG
  3. Cats. We lose another cat and decide not to have more than two. WRONG
  4. Jacqui Piper will have her knee replacement postponed at least twice and may end up not getting it done this year. WRONG; Jacqui’s operation was postponed once but went ahead in July
  5. Nine deaths predicted [NAMES REDACTED]. WRONG on every single one of them

With a hit rate of only 20% that’s not a very impressive year! Definitely could do better.

I’ll be posting my predictions for 2018 in the next few days, so if you have any good predictions please do share them.

current affairs, environment, ramblings

HS2 (again)

1 Comment

Lord (Tony) Berkeley writes a regular column in the Railway Magazine. In the July issue he once again takes a very scathing look at HS2. The article isn’t online but here are a few key extracts:

Head in sand over escalating HS2 costs

New Civil Engineer reports design elements for one of the main design and construct contracts let for the civil works were coming in at 18% over the target price, up from £6.6billion to £7.8bn.

… some bids were as much as 30% to 40% higher than their individual target price.

… the project is probably running three to four years late, even before any serious work on the ground has started. Other estimates from along the route indicate the project is held up because the purchases of the necessary land and additional areas needed for accommodation works are late.

Has HS2 allowed for the cost of diverting a 12in-diameter fuel pipe a dozen times along the route? Have they applied to the National Grid for the necessary power supply for the trains and for the required capital cost contribution to build the necessary power station capacity? Have they allowed for the cost of driving piles to support 20km of double slab track in the mushy ground of the Trent Valley?

I have asked many questions in the Lords since that time and have always been told the funding
envelope of £23.73bn at 2015 prices is still valid.

Given what we are now discovering there seems to be every reason to suppose the out-turn cost of Phase 1 will be a lot closer to £50bn than the DfT’s £25bn.

Surely it is time to reflect on why ministers continue to allow HS2 to have a blank cheque to spend what they like – a figure likely to reach more than £100bn if Phases 2A and 2B are included – while at the same time starving Network Rail of any investment …

It is all investment in the railway and there are many who believe £100bn could make a massive
difference to improving the present network in a greater number of beneficial ways.

Now we know that Tony Berkeley is a powerful voice in the rail freight side of the industry (so he’s not totally unbiased), but he is also a respected civil engineer. Even if half of what he says were to stand up to scrutiny (and from what I’ve read I’m unsure about the cost figures quoted) then it is yet another damning condemnation of this benighted government.

HS2 is a vanity project, pure and simple. It is government “willy waving” on a massive scale. See, for instance, this in the Spectator, this and this in the Daily Mail.

And all of that is without the environmental damage HS2 will do – as the Woodland Trust and the National Trust highlight.

Isn’t it time for everyone to come clean and admit that we just cannot afford HS2? Environmentally or financially. If nothing else, wherever the money is supposed to be coming from, it just isn’t there. Not when we have such a huge public debt. Not now, and certainly not after Brexit.

amusements, ramblings

Ten Things

It’s “stick you neck on the block” time in this month’s Ten Things …

Ten Vanity Projects (Past and Present):

  1. London’s Garden Bridge (hopefully now permanently abandoned)
  2. HS2 (High Speed London to Birmingham, and beyond, rail link)
  3. Olympic Games
  4. World Cup Football
  5. Formula 1
  6. Heathrow Runway 3
  7. London’s Millennium Dome
  8. Pedestrianisation of Oxford Street
  9. London’s Emirates Dangleway
  10. Donald Trump (right; a vanity project all on his own)
beliefs, ramblings

Gendered Loos

A story in the Guardian earlier this week quotes “feminist academic” Germaine Greer as saying publicly on Channel 4 TV that all public toilets should be gender-neutral.

Now I don’t like Germaine Greer, her strident attitude and many of her apparent beliefs. But on this I have to agree with her. Why can’t toilets be gender-neutral?

I recall when I was a graduate student (mid-1970s), I was a student rep on the university’s accommodation sub-committee and we were debating the possibility of having mixed corridors in student residences. Not just mixed blocks with single sex corridors of rooms, but actually mixed corridors. This was put up for debate by the university housing department as a way of better utilising the available accommodation. None of the student reps had a problem with the idea, nor did the younger university staff; in fact the only objections came from a couple of stuffed shirts at the top of the housing department. As we all pointed out: bathrooms have doors which can be locked, as do student rooms; and we all have to live in the real world with mixed genders. So how are student residences any different especially when many students choose to live in mixed-gendered flats/houses.
(I don’t know if this was implemented as I left before the start of the next academic year.)

How is this different from having mixed toilets, even if the toilets are “public conveniences”? Our local swimming pool has a mixed gender changing room with cubicles. How is this different from mixed toilets? We live in a multi-gendered society. It’s not as if we’re asking pregnant or menstruating women (or indeed anyone else) to perform their ablutions without any screening; and yes, I do get why they wouldn’t want to.

So you think you (or the children) might see something they shouldn’t. Oh, please! For a start we all know what’s under my t-shirt and jeans, and your t-shirt and jeans, so why the fuss. And kids have to learn about what’s under those t-shirts and jeans, and the bodily functions, sooner or later. How much better for them to learn in an open environment where they can be properly, and age-appropriately, explained by a parent, grandparent etc. – or in an educational environment like a school?

Yes, OK, public toilets tend not to be the most pleasant of places, but we make them that way. Men’s loos are supposedly worse than women’s – until you talk to people who run clubs who’ll tell you the women’s loos are often much worse than the men’s. So we all need to be more civilised. And maybe the thought that the other gender – who, of course, we want to impress – are watching might get us all to smarten up our ideas.

If gender neutral (or should they be “gender inclusive”) toilets are such a bad idea how is it that many public organisations like theatres and museums, let alone many companies, are going this route? And how come “disabled access toilets” are always non-gendered?

I don’t buy all this division of facilitates, any facilities, by gender. For all me we’d have mixed gender changing rooms with no cubicles. I just don’t get the problem, and I never have. I can’t be doing with it.

So I have to concede that Germaine Greer is right: all public toilets should be gender neutral.

links, personal, ramblings

Welcome!

Welcome to the new Zen Mischief site!

If you have landed here it appears that the migration from our old site has been a success. Thank you for your patience during the transition.

So what has changed?

  1. The driver for the change was to make the Zen Mischief Weblog part of this front page.
  2. That means the look and feel is slightly different, although the blog navigation is still in the right-hand column.
  3. The static pages still exist and are now linked from the left-hand column.
  4. The short site description and the current quote now appear at the top of the left-hand column.
  5. A few of the old static pages have been sunset; the rest have been revised; and there is some new content.
  6. If you trawl back through all the old blog posts then you’re likely to find some missing images; I’ll correct these as and when the opportunity arises.
  7. Oh, and you may need to update your bookmarks/favourites.

And that’s about it. Everything else should be much the same, and hopefully normal service can resume.

current affairs, ramblings

It’s not Cricket, or is it?

So, a couple of Aussies have been banned for tampering with the match ball.

This should not be a surprise, except that they were using an artificial aid to do so – which, however tempting, is frankly stupid as well as cheating. And they got caught.

Ball doctoring goes on in cricket at all levels, it is very easy and it isn’t new.

Some dust on the hand can easily rough up one side of the ball, as can boot studs or a fingernail, while shining the other side with hair gel to help the ball swing. Shining the ball on the trousers/shirt/handkerchief is legal. Using hair gel, dust, fingernails or studs isn’t.

It is also very easy to lift the seam with just a thumbnail and some sleight of hand while (allegedly) removing dirt from the seam. Removing the dirt is legal but lifting the seam isn’t.

And that is just the tip of the iceberg.

I was never more than a jobbing club third XI cricketer, and yet I was shown some of the techniques on more than one occasion. I never doctored a ball during a match – I wasn’t good enough that it would have made any useful difference anyway – nor did I ever spot it happening when I was umpiring, but I did use it to prolong the useful life of practice balls.

beliefs, nudism, personal, ramblings

Pyjamas

A few days ago my friend Katy wrote on her “clothing therapy” blog Boostique about the delights of pyjamas – whether fancy fashion ones or the cheapo “old leggings and t-shirt” version.

Notions for what to wear in bed, or indeed slumming around the house (whether you work from home or just live the life of the idle rich) do tend to revolve around comfort. Something which Katy highlights. In this men don’t have it very different from women. With one exception, I suspect … While it is OK for Mum to take her kids on the school run still in flowery pink pyjamas, it isn’t really accepted that Dad does. At least it isn’t really accepted for a guy to be seen in saggy pyjama bottoms covered in fancy patterns of the Simpsons, or Jaguar E-types, let alone pink flowers. Men’s fashion just hasn’t caught up with these niceties yet!

Personally I cannot abide pyjamas – I find they’re uncomfortable as they are forever tangled up around the dangly bits. I’ve not worn them since I was a student with a room of my own (so over 45 years ago). Indeed I don’t even possess a pair of pyjamas and haven’t done for most of those 45 years.

As far as I can see, us guys have four options of what to wear in bed (and they’re actually much the same as the girls):

Pyjamas. As above but I include here all those ad hoc combinations of old jogging bottoms and t-shirts. If they work for you, or you’re a frozen mortal, fine. They don’t work for me.

Nightshirts. I had a proper, knee-length, nightshirt once. It didn’t last long. I found it as uncomfortable and liable to tie one in knots as pyjamas. When I was quite young I remember my father had a couple of old shirts, with long tails, that he wore to bed, but they eventually wore out entirely and weren’t replaced. Again good if you’re someone who is always cold, but otherwise forget it.

Boxer Shorts (or other such underwear). Again, great if you find them comfortable. I don’t see the point.

Nothing. As most regular readers will suspect this is my preference, and has been for those 45+ years. And there are, we’re told, lots of good reasons for sleeping nude:

  • It is more comfortable. Yes, it does feel odd at first, but that’s only because we’re not so used to being nude.
  • We need our body temperature to drop a little in order to induce sleep; so why swaddle ourselves in clothes which stop this?
  • Think of how much you save on the cost of pyjamas, and on the laundry!
  • We need to get air to the body. The more we cover ourselves in layers of fabric (especially synthetic fabric) the hotter and stickier we are, and the more prone to things like fungal infections. The body needs to breathe. I know that I’m more prone to itch of the groin in winter when I spend more time wearing clothes than I do in the summer. Benjamin Franklin knew this, and if it’s good enough for him …
  • It keeps the balls cooler. And that is actually good for the sperm count (if that’s something that matters to you).
  • It is sexier. There is nothing quite like snuggling together in bed, skin-to-skin. Yes, it really does make a difference. And it’s good for a healthy relationship.

So I can think of no good reason to wear clothes in bed, other than actually being cold. “But …”, you object …

What if the kids see me nude? Well good; so they should. It is unlikely to phase them and they have to learn about bodies sooner or later; how much better they do this at home, in a safe, controlled environment, where they can have their questions answered honestly? British Naturism (BN) exploded the myths around this some time back; see for example here.

What if the doorbell rings? You mean you don’t have a dressing gown hanging on the back of the bedroom door? Or a pair of shorts on the newel post? And anyway the courier has probably seen it all before, and if it’s the God-Squad maybe it’ll frighten them away for good.

What if there’s a fire? Do you really imagine that you, or anyone else, is going to care what you’re wearing if you’re trying to escape a fire?

What if I have to go into hospital? No problem. I’ve been in hospital several times in the last 45 years and the lack of pyjamas has never been an issue. Half the time they’ll have you in a surgical gown anyway; and when they don’t I’ve found that boxers and a t-shirt are just fine – indeed because hospitals are so hot I usually dispense with the t-shirt. Nurses have seen it all before; they learn very early in their carers that dangly bits etc. are just bits of body like any other. (Sexuality is in the context, not the appendage itself.)

Why not give bedtime nudity a go? You have nothing to lose and quite a lot to gain.

But remember: Be careful what you wear to bed, because you never know who you’ll meet in your dreams. Choose your aftershave carefully and who is really going to mind if you’re unclothed?

amusements, ramblings

Greenery

In honour of St Patrick’s Day, there are Seventeen Green Things:

  1. Grass
  2. Green Man
  3. Parrots
  4. Emeralds
  5. Shamrock
  6. Absinthe
  7. Avocado
  8. Envy
  9. Green Goddess fire engines
  10. Holly
  11. Original UK postboxes
  12. Green Woodpecker
  13. Kermit
  14. Asparagus
  15. Sea glass
  16. Oak Bush Crickets
  17. Sphagnum moss (ie. Irish bog)
personal, ramblings

Hiatus Interruptus

I’m very aware that there has been a slight hiatus around here. So as a catch-up here’s a bit of what’s been happening.

A number of things have contributed to the hiatus. Prominent amongst them is that the house is even more upside-down than usual because we’ve had our friend Tom decorating the hall/stairs/landing, and it hasn’t gone as smoothly as we all wanted. We urgently needed to replace the carpet, which was literally falling to pieces – hardly surprising after 30+ years of wear – and it seemed sensible while we were ripping out the old carpet to apply a coat of paint.

The painting etc. which should have taken a few days to do has now dragged on for 6 weeks or more, for at least three reasons: Tom does things well and doesn’t just slap on a coat of paint, but applies two or three coats if required; in an area like this there is a lot more to paint than one expects – not just wallage but all the wood of dado rails, bannisters, and so on – thirdly, and most significantly, Tom has been ill (with the current flu) which has meant he’s had something like three weeks of enforced idleness. Oh and along the way we’ve also had Tom put some paint on the ceilings and small amount of wood in the kitchen and bathroom, so they’ve had a quick refresh.

(Someone is going to ask what colours we chose. The wall below the dado rail has existing, and quite old, Anaglypta-style paper, which is white, as are the ceilings and the woodwork. The wall about the dado has been painted a lovely sunny pale yellow – as chosen by Noreen. It does look rather good.)

But we’re getting down to the end now. There is just a small amount of painting (like a couple of doors) left to do; refettling the door furniture etc. and snagging.

So Thursday of last week we went off looking at carpet. We decided what we wanted, brought some samples home and then changed our minds. The guy came yesterday to take the detailed measurements, which took about 15 minutes. And in the middle of writing this I’ve accepted the estimate and paid the deposit. Will we get the carpet laid before Easter? It’s going to be touch and go.

(The carpet will be a mid-grey with some flecks of colour; hopefully dark enough that it won’t show too many muddy paw-marks – feline or human – but not so dark as to be oppressive. It is also a fairly tight loop-pile as in our experience this is fairly cat-scratch resistant: it had better be, it’s costing enough!)

Meanwhile, I’ve had the flu for the last week. I started to feel rough as we left the carpet shop Thursday a week ago. On Monday my GP insisted I went to see her, despite spreading my germs and not feeling at all OK on my feet, as she rightly assessed that I needed antibiotics to clear my chest. They do seem to be working and I am beginning to recover, although I’m still lacking energy and have a cough and a head full of gunge. It’s been quite a few years since I had flu, and I’d forgotten just how debilitating it is, although luckily it doesn’t seem to have left me with overwhelming depression as it sometimes does. I’m hoping I might be back to what passes for normal by Monday.

And I could do with getting back to “work” as I have an ever increasing pile of stuff to do – every day seems to bring a new demand that I attend to something important.