personal, ramblings

2015 Predictions, the Results

Back at the beginning of 2015 I made some predictions as to what I thought would happen during the year. How well did I do? Well no, not very well. But then I didn’t really expect to. Here are the results:

UK

  1. Labour win the General Election — although probably not with an overall majority; they form a government in coalition with the LibDems. WRONG
  2. As a result of the new government the unions start demanding, and getting, inflation busting wage rises. WRONG; due to election result; although the rail unions have certainly tried over all-night running on the London Underground.
  3. Theresa May beats off a challenge from Boris Johnson to become leader of the Conservative Party. WRONG; due to election result.
  4. There is no change in UK interest rates. CORRECT
  5. A major household name (possibly a high street store) calls in the receivers. MAYBE: if Kid’s Company counts.
  6. At least one UK holiday tour operator goes under stranding several hundred holiday-makers abroad. WRONG
  7. Against expectations UK inflation will be around 4% driven by higher wage settlements and spending by the new government. WRONG; annual inflation remained at under about 1%.
  8. On 31 December FTSE will close down 10% compared with 1 January. WRONG; at 6242 it is down just under 5%.
  9. UK will see at least one major plane crash and one major train crash. WRONG
  10. Duke of Edinburgh dies and is given a state funeral. WRONG
  11. Queen Elizabeth II becomes Britain’s longest reigning monarch. CORRECT
  12. The UK has a warm winter and a cold wet summer. CORRECT; winter was marginally warmer than average (about +0.5°C) with average rainfall but more sunshine; summer was as predicted colder and wetter than average.

Overseas

  1. Violence in South Africa between black tribes threatens to turn into civil war and causes a white exodus. WRONG; although in April Zulu King Goodwill Zwelithini asked for an end to violence after attacks against migrants.
  2. Death of President Mugabe of Zimbabwe is followed by further civil war. WRONG
  3. Major epidemic will affect the developed world — could be Ebola or flu or MERS or something entirely new. WRONG
  4. Australia will experience an earthquake of at least magnitude 7. WRONG
  5. The Pope will issue a revolutionary encyclical, possibly on birth control, divorce or the celibate priesthood. MAYBE; three things I spotted (1) the Pope telling people they don’t have to breed like rabbits, (2) reform of the marriage annulment process, (3) an encyclical in June on climate change.
  6. A number of international sporting bodies are proven to be driven by massive bribery and fraud. CORRECT; see FIFA and the IAAF.
  7. The Islamic world continues to descend into total meltdown with more factional fighting, civil war and coups d’état; the exceptions are Saudi Arabia and UAE which remain relatively stable due to their oil wealth. CORRECT
  8. Russia continues to be belligerent over Ukraine and only their economic woes will prevent World War 3. CORRECT; although Russia’s intervention in Syria seems to have relieved the pressure somewhat.
  9. Brussels finally gets fed up with the UK’s posturing and formally asks us to leave the EU. WRONG; but they got fairly close to this with Greece over the summer.
  10. A major airline goes into liquidation MAYBE; does Cyprus Air (who closed in January) count?

Personal

  1. I finally have to be put on insulin to control my diabetes. WRONG; but we must be getting perilously close.
  2. We lose the venerable Harry the Cat (well he is over 17) but he is replaced by two kittens. WRONG; but again we must be getting close to losing Harry; he’s now over 18.

For once being wrong most of the time was actually quite a good thing!
2016 predictions to follow in the next few days.