Once again this year I’ve disinterred my crystal ball and wiped the mud off. However it becomes cloudier by the day (yes, the ravages of age affect crystal balls too!) so despite regular consultations over the last month or so what follows are only my guesses at what may happen during 2021.

Actually this year I’ve found it very difficult to predict as there are too many unknowns and variables, and too much going on, due in large part to both Brexit and Covid-19. Hence the length of this year’s predictions.

As before, I’ve divided the predictions into sections: General, UK, World and Personal. Various items are redacted (although I have them documented) as some might be especially sensitive.

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General

1. This should be a year of change, of healing, of reassessing what’s important and of rebuilding. But I fear it won’t be! There are too many who want to instigate violent protest or will angrily protect their vested interests.
   Watch out for flashpoints in mid-February, mid-June and immediately before Christmas.
2. If we do see a return to some semblance of normality, it is going to be late in the year and run on into 2022. Things will generally ease up in 4Q.
3. We should also see the technological and green revolutions, as well as smarter working practices, take off. If they do it will be in the middle 6 months of the year.
4. Watch out for travel delays and general buggeration during weeks 5-7, 21-25 and 39-41.
5. Also watch out for change around the time of eclipses, especially in areas where they are visible. This year we have: Lunar eclipses on 26 May (visible round the pacific rim), 19 November (eastern Pacific and Americas); Solar eclipses on 10 June (Arctic) and 4 December (Antarctic).
6. There are Supermoons on 27 April, 26 May and 24 June, and a Blue Moon on 22 August. These should all herald good news.

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UK

1. The Queen abdicates unexpectedly, on or shortly after her 95^th birthday in April, citing failing health, and may die late in the year.
2. Boris Johnson resigns as PM in March, partly due to poor health. In true Roman style he declares a Triumph saying he “got Brexit done”.
   His successor is likely to be Michael Gove or Rishi Sunak and will be an even worse culprit of nepotism and cronyism while introducing some fresh blood.
   There is no prospect of an early general election.
3. There will be more division in politics and more stand-offs between local authorities and central government. Watch London, Manchester and Liverpool.
4. Elections due to be held in May (eg. London Mayor) will go ahead despite Covid-19 still being rampant.
5. Scottish independence referendum is possible in October/November but probably won’t happen until at least mid-2022 (and quite likely 2023).
   If it does happen, the result will be 55:45 in favour of independence.
6. Government budget deficit hits £500bn with no immediate prospect of falling.
7. UK GDP shrinks a further 5% year-on-year.
8. Unemployment rises to 10%.
9. Bank of England interest rate falls to 0% and could go negative.
10. UK is in recession again by mid-year.
11. In the Spring Budget:
    • Due to the budget deficit tax bands are not increased.
    • Tax rates are increased: 2% on both basic rate Income Tax and on VAT.
    • All UK pensions (state & private) are frozen by law for at least 3 years.
    • Duty on alcohol sold in pubs & restaurants is reduced by 30% in an attempt to help the industry.
    • Duty on alcohol off-sales, fuel and tobacco is increased.
12. Major discontent (already brewing in the last days of 2020) when UK fishing industry realise they won’t get their full fishing quotas back post-Brexit.
13. Despite the Brexit deal, there are major food shortages by February, due to Brexit import issues, effect of the new variant of Covid-19, and the lack of vaccinations. These could well last until June.
    Fruit & veg increases 50% in (retail) price – partly to constrain demand.
    Meat & fish also increase in price by 30%.
    Bread (and flour) prices double and supply is constrained due to poor 2020 grain harvests in UK and Canada as well as post-Brexit issues.
14. There is major disruption to movement of goods between Northern Ireland and the UK mainland.
    The border between Northern Ireland and the Republic continues to be very porous.
    It is concluded that the only solutions are either a hard border with the Republic or the reunification of Ireland. Neither is politically acceptable, but then neither is the current situation. Meanwhile the disruption continues while politicians on all sides spend the year gibbering in their corners and paralysed with indecision.
    A temporary hard border is however required to try to constrain the spread of Covid19.
15. The EU continues to impose travel restrictions on UK (due to Covid-19 and Brexit).
    Several countries follow France’s lead and insist that all UK travellers have visas to enter their country, regardless of reason or length of stay.
    As a consequence, travel outside the UK is difficult until mid-year.
16. All of which stimulates a popular movement to rejoin the EU. This will build slowly over a number of years, but will not be taken at all seriously until after 2025.
17. The government tries (again) to impose major reform on TfL. This leads to long-running industrial action by tube and bus workers and could see 30% of bus routes withdrawn permanently.
18. A strike (or other significant industrial action) by energy workers (I’m not sure if this is electricity, gas or oil) seems likely – probably in February or November/December.
19. Covid-19 wave 3 in January/February is due to the new strain of the virus and rules generally being ignored (especially in London and SE England). Lockdowns and restrictions (via tier) are ongoing until at least mid-year; this scuppers any hope of a quick recovery.
20. Covid shuts UK schools & universities for three months (January to March is most likely) causing major confusion and disruption.
    Many degrees and GCSE/A-levels are devalued due to doubts over the level of teaching and study possible.
21. There will be increased stress in 1Q and a further unexpected lockdown in 3Q. This fuels a further marked decline in mental health with antidepressant prescriptions up 25% during the year.
22. There will be problems with Covid-19 vaccine supply until around Easter, when there will be a turning point.
    There will be another turning point around September time.
23. A UK TV channel/company ceases broadcasting. Possibly Channel 5 or BBC3; less likely Sky or BBC4.
24. One of UK’s eight major supermarkets goes under. Most likely: ASDA, Morrisons.
25. The following will go into administration/cease trading as a result of the Coronavirus pandemic: Wetherspoons, Coda Falconry, Vagina Museum, 30% of pubs and restaurants, 30% of London theatres, Hull Trains, Eurostar.
26. [[REDACTED]]
27. There may well be a significant event (possibly a disaster) somewhere near Stoke-on-Trent and another in West Lothian.
28. There is likely to be a major train crash, with at least 10 dead.
29. Further structural damage will be found to London’s Hammersmith Bridge, and there may be a partial collapse. The bridge may have to be demolished.
30. Other deaths: Prince Philip, another senior royal, Frank Field, Philip Green, Monty Don, Bill Turnbull, Tariq Ali.

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World

1. Trump continues to believe he won the election and refuses to leave the White House. He is finally removed in early February.
2. The Trump presidency leaves the US in a terrible state with lots of last minute, vindictive orders which cannot be easily rolled back.
3. Several Trump aides and family members are investigated for fraud and corruption, although prosecutions are hampered by non-cooperation and interference with witnesses.
4. Trump declines to follow precedent and refuses to bequeath his papers to the state or endow a library for them.
5. Joe Biden dies (probably due to a heart attack), leaving US with a woman president by default.
   This causes Trump to resurface and claim he should be President.
6. 2021 could possibly see the death of Donald Trump.
7. Expect several Covid-19 vaccines to be approved; most likely: Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, Oxford/AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson; there may be others.
   Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine will not be licensed in USA until there have been further trials.
   All western countries will license at least two of the above four.
8. However a really good vaccine (effective with long lasting protection) is not available in sufficient quantity until at least mid-year and will take 12 months or more to deploy fully in western countries.
   In consequence travel and isolation restrictions remain in place into 2022.
9. In good news there could well be some major medical breakthroughs. Cancer treatment looks to be the most likely.
10. There’s all out war between China and India, which threatens to pull in Russia and USA.
11. There is a crisis of some sort in North Korea (possibly the death of Kim Yong-un) which dangerously destabilises the country.
12. There is also a destabilising crisis in Venezuela.
13. A crisis in either Iraq or Iran could well descend into civil war.
14. There will be a major Islamic-based attack in Europe.
15. Japan starts dumping the tritium contaminated water from the Fukushima nuclear site into sea.
16. NASA’s Perseverance rover (to Mars) will fail on landing.
17. Catastrophic failure and demise of ISS, possibly due to a debris strike – although any on-board astronauts are able to evacuate to safety prior to final explosion.
18. Having returned to the skies, there’s another Boeing 737 MAX 8 crash, and the plane is grounded again.
    And at least one other major plane crash with over 100 dead.
19. Two major airlines fail; Virgin Atlantic is probably finally one of them.
20. There’s a major train crash somewhere in Europe
21. A major financial institution fails – it’s not clear where, but the US, Italy or Greece seem likely.
22. There may well be a significant event (possibly a disaster) somewhere around Spain or Portugal – possibly around the border between the two countries.
23. A magnitude 7 earthquake is likely in one of the countries on the west coast of South America.
    There will also be a magnitude 6 quake on the west coast of the USA.
    And at least one major volcanic eruption which causes disruption to air travel.
24. The world’s weather will be slightly cooler than in recent years (due to El Niña) but there will be an increase in the number and severity of storms and hurricanes.
25. Other Deaths: Bolsonaro, another prominent international politician (possibly Merkel), Rupert Murdoch, a current F1 driver.

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Personal

1. Family 1: [[REDACTED]]
2. Family 2: [[REDACTED]]
3. Friends 1: [[REDACTED]]
4. Friends 2: [[REDACTED]]
5. Friends 3: [[REDACTED]]
6. Miscellaneous 1: [[REDACTED]]
7. Deaths: [[REDACTED]]

These have all been redacted as the content is bound to be sensitive to people I know, however they are documented in my files and will be reported on at the end of the year.

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Obviously I shall keep a tally and will publish the results at the end of the year. Let’s hope we actually get a better year this year than we did last and that much of the above doesn’t come to pass.