amusements, current affairs, personal, ramblings

Predictions for 2019: The Results

This time last year I made a series of predictions about what would happen during 2019. So what did I get right, and what wrong?
[Some of the items remain redacted to protect the sensitive and innocent.]

UK (Brexit)

Most of these predictions stand or fall on the outcome of the first two.

  1. Despite all the clamour, there will not be a second referendum on Brexit, and even if there is the result will still be Leave. CORRECT
  2. Parliament will not be able to agree the negotiated deal so Britain leaves the EU on 29 March with no deal, no fall-back plan, and no “implementation period”. WRONG as Brexit was delayed, twice.
  3. All trade stops as it is discovered that WTO rules cannot be applied instantly and easily. Resolution takes at least 3 months. WRONG.
  4. A hard border has to be implemented in Ireland almost overnight and is accomplished only by using troops. WRONG.
  5. There’s surprise that airlines cannot fly in/out of UK, and this badly affects food/medicine supply. WRONG.
  6. There are delays of up to a week (ie. that’s how long trucks have to queue) to get goods in/out to Europe via the seaports. Troops are required to manage the flow of trucks. WRONG.
  7. UK economy is in recession by mid-year. WRONG; although it was close towards the latter part of the year.
  8. Food and medicine supply issues are biting hard by end April as stocks run low and imports are almost impossible. There won’t be rationing but there will be significantly empty supermarket shelves. WRONG.
  9. There’s no insulin available by end May. Lack of insulin and other diabetes drugs results in 5K excess deaths during the year and another 5K avoided only due to an increased rate of amputations. The NHS estimate that a further 50K have unnecessary adverse events. WRONG.
  10. Due to import issues prices rise sharply and inflation hits 20% but stabilises to 5% by year-end. WRONG; inflation fell to 1.5% in November.
  11. Bank base rate is reduced to 0% as the banking sector is unable to do business/make money. Most savings rates are 0% while the mortgage rate rises to at least 10% resulting in an increase of repossessions. WRONG.
  12. House prices fall by 20-30%. WRONG; in October (latest data available) year-on-year house prices were up 0.8%.
  13. At some point during the year £1 will be worth no more than $0.90, and €0.90 (although not necessarily at the same time). CORRECT (just!); in July we got to £1=€0.85 at some UK airports.
  14. Moody’s downrate UK credit rating by at least two notches. WRONG; to my surprise.
  15. Despite this the FTSE100 ends the year up 10%. CORRECT; FTSE100 was up just over 12% at close on 31/12.

UK (Other)

  1. This is a year of trouble, unrest and pigeons coming home to roost – not all caused by Brexit but often due to incompetence and/or poor planning. Good news is in very short supply. CORRECT; see inter alia school kids striking for climate change, Extinction Rebellion, and many demonstrations about Brexit.
  2. Theresa May resigns as PM, possibly due to ill health. CORRECT.
  3. Andrea Leadsom becomes PM and appoints Jacob Rees-Mogg as Chancellor, with Boris Johnson as Deputy PM. WRONG.
  4. Ulster sectarian troubles boil over again; multiple shootings / bombings by both sides. CORRECT; but not as much as I feared.
  5. Labour Party adopts an official policy to re-unify Ireland. WRONG.
  6. TfL is declared bankrupt, causing chaos for London travellers. The government refuses to provide a bail-out. This results in many redundancies, pruned services and upgrade projects, and protracted strike action. WRONG.
  7. Work on Crossrail is paused, and the opening delayed to 2021. The Emirates Dangleway will close. Crossrail 2 is postponed by at least 3 years. CORRECT about Crossrail which will not now open until “sometime in 2021”. WRONG about the Dangleway. No good clues about Crossrail 2.
  8. HS2 is cut back due to lack of funding. Heathrow Third Runway is also delayed due to lack of money. Hinkley C nuclear power station development is cancelled. CORRECT about Heathrow Runway 3 which will be delayed from 2026 to maybe as late as 2029. WRONG about HS2 and Hinkley Point C.
  9. There’s a murder on my street. WRONG.
  10. The Sussex’s baby [REDACTED] will be named Diana or Iris (if a girl); Robert or David (if a boy). WRONG.
  11. A reintroduced wolf or lynx kills a human. WRONG.
  12. Beavers are found to be colonising the upper reaches of the Thames basin. No-one knows (or will admit to) how they got there. WRONG.
  13. A feral big cat (probably lynx or puma) is conclusively confirmed somewhere in the UK; it may be captured or shot to confirm the identification. WRONG; there were the usual purported sightings but no conclusive evidence.
  14. Major terrorist attack somewhere in UK (probably London) kills 50 including a high profile politician or minor royal. PARTLY CORRECT; the major UK incident seems to have been the London Bridge attack with two, plus attacker, dead.
  15. The country lurches even further towards pervasive surveillance and a police state with troops, and openly armed police, regularly on the streets in major conurbations. WRONG.
  16. At least one train crash and one plane crash; each with 20 dead. WRONG.
  17. A rail franchise will fail and have to be taken back into public ownership. WRONG.
  18. A major hospital (in England) fails and closes unexpectedly. WRONG.
  19. At least three major companies (possibly including a bank/building society and a supermarket) fail; 1000 job losses each. CORRECT: Patisserie Valerie, Jamie Oliver’s restaurants, Thomas Cook, Wrightbus, Mothercare.
  20. Deaths: Bill Turnbull, Tariq Ali, George Monbiot, David Jason, Derek Jacobi, Richard Branson, Leslie Phillips, Prince Philip, another Royal Duke/Prince. WRONG on all counts.

World

  1. Anthropologists discover that an isolated tribe (probably in Africa; possibly pygmies) is not Homo sapiens but another hominin species. WRONG.
  2. DNA recovered from ancient hominin teeth totally changes our current understanding of human evolution. WRONG; although with the apparent discovery that people were in Australia much earlier than thought this might have been quite close.
  3. Astronomers identify another extra-solar system “asteroid” visitor (like ‘Oumuamua) and prove this one is an alien spacecraft, although it appears to be dead. PARTLY CORRECT; another alien visitor has been found but it’s an asteroid.
  4. The upgraded LIGO experiment fails to reproduce its previous detection of gravitational waves, throwing whole areas of physics into turmoil. WRONG.
  5. There will be significant damage to ISS which forces its abandonment and a long pause in manned space-flight. WRONG.
  6. Donald Trump is confirmed to be suffering from a mild form of dementia, but is ruled as still fit to govern. WRONG.
  7. CO2 emissions rise by at least 5% year-on-year in US, India and China. INCONCLUSIVE; although China was reported to be 4% up in 1H2019, there’s too little easily available data to judge.
  8. In a petulant move, Russia cuts off gas supply to Europe for at least three months. WRONG.
  9. The global average temperature for the year is at least 1°C above the long-term average. PARTLY CORRECT and it’s going to be very close; YtD data for November shows land+ocean temperature 0.94°C above the long-term average; land only 1.39°C; ocean only 0.77°C.
  10. There’s a disease pandemic – cause currently unknown, but not flu, Ebola or Zika. WRONG.
  11. There’s an outbreak of Ebola in South America; plus 6 cases in UK, not all imported. WRONG; just more Ebola in Africa.
  12. Major terrorist attacks in western world: 1 in USA and 2 in other places; combined deaths 250. PARTLY CORRECT; several attacks, most notably New Zealand with 51 deaths, El Paso, Texas 22 dead.
  13. More die in mass shootings in USA this year than in 2018. CORRECT; according to Wikipedia 486 deaths in 2019 cf. 387 in 2018.
  14. Saudi Arabia annexes one or more of UAE, Dubai, Kuwait. WRONG.
  15. A Chinese warship fires at a US Navy vessel in the South China Sea; this may be the start of a US/China war in the area. WRONG.
  16. MH370 is found by accident in waters between Australia, Papua New Guinea and East Timor. One of the black boxes is recovered. WRONG.
  17. At least one round the world sailor is lost at sea and never found (although the deserted yacht is found). WRONG.
  18. There are three major transport accidents (plane/train/cruise liner/ferry) each with 100 deaths. PARTLY CORRECT; Ethiopian airliner crash with 157 dead, Iraqi ferry with about 100 dead, Pakistan train crash with 73+ dead; plus an Aeroflot plane crash (41 dead), Cairo train fire (25 dead), Chilean plane crash (38 dead).
  19. There’s a major earthquake (around magnitude 8) along the Himalayas which causes widespread destruction in Tibet, Nepal and Bhutan with thousands of deaths. As a result the summit of Mt Everest is 1m lower. WRONG.
  20. Deaths: Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Robert Mugabe, Pope Emeritus Benedict, Elon Musk, a major European politician. CORRECT about Mugabe. WRONG about the rest.

Personal

  1. In family history, I finally unlock the brick wall in my Marshall line in mid-18th century, although I then get stuck at about 1700. WRONG.
  2. Family. [REDACTED] PARTLY CORRECT.
  3. Personal. I’m diagnosed with BPH (possibly low grade cancer) but surgery not required. WRONG.
  4. Doctors. [REDACTED] CORRECT on one item. WRONG about the other two.
  5. Friends 1. [REDACTED] WRONG.
  6. Friends 2. [REDACTED] WRONG about the first part. CORRECT about the second part.
  7. Friends 3. [REDACTED] WRONG.
  8. Friends 4. [REDACTED] WRONG.
  9. My total lottery winnings for the year are less than £50. WRONG, but still less than £200.
  10. Deaths. [REDACTED] WRONG; of 14 people listed, two died in 2018 (unknown to me when making the predictions) and the other 12 are still on life as far as I am aware.

That is an absolutely pathetic hit rate for which I deserve to be sacked – lucky I’m not a football manager!

Tomorrow I’ll post my predictions for 2020. Watch this space.