amusements, current affairs, personal, ramblings

Predictions for 2019

So once again this year I’ve retrieved my crystal ball from the back of the wardrobe and dusted it off. However it is extremely cloudy so despite regular consultations over the last month what follows are my guesses at what may happen during 2019.

As before, I’ve divided the predictions into sections: UK (Brexit), UK (Other), World and Personal. I figured that Brexit is sufficiently horrible all on its own it deserved a section to itself. Note also that various items are currently redacted (although I have them documented) as some might consider them over-sensitive.

Disclaimer. I remind you that these are just my ideas of what could happen; they’re based solely on hunches and gut feel; I have no inside knowledge, I haven’t been studying the form, and I have a success rate of about 20%. So if you base any decision on any of this I will take no responsibility for your wanton act of idiocy or its consequences.

UK (Brexit)

  1. Despite all the clamour, there will not be a second referendum on Brexit, and even if there is the result will still be Leave.
  2. Parliament will not be able to agree the negotiated deal so Britain leaves the EU on 29 March with no deal, no fall-back plan, and no “implementation period”.
  3. All trade stops as it is discovered that WTO rules cannot be applied instantly and easily. Resolution takes at least 3 months.
  4. A hard border has to be implemented in Ireland almost overnight and is accomplished only by using troops.
  5. There’s surprise that airlines cannot fly in/out of UK, and this badly affects food/medicine supply.
  6. There are delays of up to a week (ie. that’s how long trucks have to queue) to get goods in/out to Europe via the seaports. Troops are required to manage the flow of trucks.
  7. UK economy is in recession by mid-year.
  8. Food and medicine supply issues are biting hard by end April as stocks run low and imports are almost impossible. There won’t be rationing but there will be significantly empty supermarket shelves.
  9. There’s no insulin available by end May. Lack of insulin and other diabetes drugs results in 5K excess deaths during the year and another 5K avoided only due to an increased rate of amputations. The NHS estimate that a further 50K have unnecessary adverse events.
  10. Due to import issues prices rise sharply and inflation hits 20% but stabilises to 5% by year-end.
  11. Bank base rate is reduced to 0% as the banking sector is unable to do business/make money. Most savings rates are 0% while the mortgage rate rises to at least 10% resulting in an increase of repossessions.
  12. House prices fall by 20-30%.
  13. At some point during the year £1 will be worth no more than $0.90, and €0.90 (although not necessarily at the same time).
  14. Moody’s downrate UK credit rating by at least two notches.
  15. Despite this the FTSE100 ends the year up 10%.

UK (Other)

  1. This is a year of trouble, unrest and pigeons coming home to roost – not all caused by Brexit but often due to incompetence and/or poor planning. Good news is in very short supply.
  2. Theresa May resigns as PM, possibly due to ill health.
  3. Andrea Leadsom becomes PM and appoints Jacob Rees-Mogg as Chancellor, with Boris Johnson as Deputy PM.
  4. Ulster sectarian troubles boil over again; multiple shootings / bombings by both sides.
  5. Labour Party adopts an official policy to re-unify Ireland.
  6. TfL is declared bankrupt, causing chaos for London travellers. The government refuses to provide a bail-out. This results in many redundancies, pruned services and upgrade projects, and protracted strike action.
  7. Work on Crossrail is paused, and the opening delayed to 2021. The Emirates Dangleway will close. Crossrail 2 is postponed by at least 3 years.
  8. HS2 is cut back due to lack of funding. Heathrow Third Runway is also delayed due to lack of money. Hinkley C nuclear power station development is cancelled.
  9. There’s a murder on my street.
  10. The Sussex’s baby [REDACTED] will be named Diana or Iris (if a girl); Robert or David (if a boy).
  11. A reintroduced wolf or lynx kills a human.
  12. Beavers are found to be colonising the upper reaches of the Thames basin. No-one knows (or will admit to) how they got there.
  13. A feral big cat (probably lynx or puma) is conclusively confirmed somewhere in the UK; it may be captured or shot to confirm the identification.
  14. Major terrorist attack somewhere in UK (probably London) kills 50 including a high profile politician or minor royal.
  15. The country lurches even further towards pervasive surveillance and a police state with troops, and openly armed police, regularly on the streets in major conurbations.
  16. At least one train crash and one plane crash; each with 20 dead.
  17. A rail franchise will fail and have to be taken back into public ownership.
  18. A major hospital (in England) fails and closes unexpectedly.
  19. At least three major companies (possibly including a bank/building society and a supermarket) fail; 1000 job losses each.
  20. Deaths: Bill Turnbull, Tariq Ali, George Monbiot, David Jason, Derek Jacobi, Richard Branson, Leslie Phillips, Prince Philip, another Royal Duke/Prince.

World

  1. Anthropologists discover that an isolated tribe (probably in Africa; possibly pygmies) is not Homo sapiens but another hominin species.
  2. DNA recovered from ancient hominin teeth totally changes our current understanding of human evolution.
  3. Astronomers identify another extra-solar system “asteroid” visitor (like Oumuamua) and prove this one is an alien spacecraft, although it appears to be dead.
  4. The upgraded LIGO experiment fails to reproduce its previous detection of gravitational waves, throwing whole areas of physics into turmoil.
  5. There will be significant damage to ISS which forces its abandonment and a long pause in manned space-flight.
  6. Donald Trump is confirmed to be suffering from a mild form of dementia, but is ruled as still fit to govern.
  7. CO2 emissions rise by at least 5% year-on-year in US, India and China.
  8. In a petulant move, Russia cuts off gas supply to Europe for at least three months.
  9. The global average temperature for the year is at least 1°C above the long-term average.
  10. There’s a disease pandemic – cause currently unknown, but not flu, Ebola or Zika.
  11. There’s an outbreak of Ebola in South America; plus 6 cases in UK, not all imported.
  12. Major terrorist attacks in western world: 1 in USA and 2 in other places; combined deaths 250.
  13. More die in mass shootings in USA this year than in 2018.
  14. Saudi Arabia annexes one or more of UAE, Dubai, Kuwait.
  15. A Chinese warship fires at a US Navy vessel in the South China Sea; this may be the start of a US/China war in the area.
  16. MH370 is found by accident in waters between Australia, Papua New Guinea and East Timor. One of the black boxes is recovered.
  17. At least one round the world sailor is lost at sea and never found (although the deserted yacht is found).
  18. There are three major transport accidents (plane/train/cruise liner/ferry) each with 100 deaths.
  19. There’s a major earthquake (around magnitude 8) along the Himalayas which causes widespread destruction in Tibet, Nepal and Bhutan with thousands of deaths. As a result the summit of Mt Everest is 1m lower.
  20. Deaths: Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Robert Mugabe, Pope Emeritus Benedict, Elon Musk, a major European politician.

Personal

  1. In family history, I finally unlock the brick wall in my Marshall line in mid-18th century, although I then get stuck at about 1700.
  2. Family. [REDACTED]
  3. Personal. [REDACTED]
  4. Doctors. [REDACTED]
  5. Friends 1. [REDACTED]
  6. Friends 2. [REDACTED]
  7. Friends 3. [REDACTED]
  8. Friends 4. [REDACTED]
  9. My total lottery winnings for the year are less than £50.
  10. Deaths. [REDACTED]

Obviously I’m going to keep a tally and will publish the results at the end of the year. I wonder if I’ll do any better than the pathetic 20% I scored in 2018?