This time last year I made a series of predictions about what would happen during 2017. So what did I get right, and what wrong?
[Some names have been redacted to protect the sensitive and vulnerable.]
UK
- Brexit. It becomes clear that no Brexit deal is possible, but no-one has the courage to cancel Brexit so the UK is sleepwalking over a cliff to become a third world country (economically and socially) by 2020. CORRECT
- The government will ensure that, despite its expressed wish, Parliament does not have a meaningful vote on the final Brexit deal. CORRECT, so far
- Increasing sexual harassment claims in Parliament and involving members of the government, on top of divisions over Brexit, are likely to bring down the government. WRONG
- However, it’s unlikely there will be a General Election, but if there is it will be won by Labour with a tiny majority. CORRECT; no general election
- Michael Portillo is given a peerage and a seat in the Cabinet. WRONG
- Boris Johnson is replaced as Foreign Secretary by one of David Davies, Liam Fox or Michael Gove. PARTLY CORRECT; Boris did resign but was replaced by Jeremy Hunt
- Part of the Palace of Westminster collapses and the whole building is evacuated long-term, and may even have to be demolished. WRONG
- UK interest rates rise twice during the year, each time by 0.25%. WRONG; only one rise
- Inflation remains at 3.0-3.5%. WRONG; inflation actually declined to 2.2%
- Stamp Duty relief for first-time buyers pushes property prices up by 10%. WRONG; house prices rose by 2.7% in the year to October (the latest figures available)
- Tesco try to buy another supermarket chain but are prevented from doing so by the Monopolies Commission. WRONG; although Sainsbury and Asda were discussing a merger
- Waitrose close 20 stores across UK by YE and record an operating loss. WRONG; Waitrose recorded a profit although parent company John Lewis made a loss; nonetheless Waitrose announced 5 store closures
- Ryanair buy/merge with EasyJet. WRONG
- Move to regulate and meter all London taxi fares (including all private hire). WRONG
- Uber wins the appeal over its withdrawn operating licence in London. CORRECT; and Uber was given a 15 month licence
- Heavy flu season with many hospitals unable to cope with demand, contributing to 10,000 excess deaths. PARTLY CORRECT; it was a heavier than usual flu season with an estimated 6000 excess deaths
- At least two major disasters (industrial, train crash, plane crash etc.) with a combined total of over 200 fatalities. WRONG
- Driverless vehicles kill six cyclists in the UK. WRONG
- Red Arrows are disbanded after another fatal accident. PARTLY CORRECT; there was another Red Arrows-related fatality but the group is still operational
- Murders. At least 5 murders within 8km (5 miles) of my house. CORRECT; I counted 10 by mid-year and then gave up counting; one murder was just a mile away
- No snow in London for the whole of 2018 with temperatures 2°C above average across the year. WRONG; there was snow in January and February; temperatures look to have been about average overall across the year
- Prince Harry’s wedding day will be wet. WRONG; the day was dry, sunny and warm
- Meghan Markle gives birth less than 9 months after her wedding to Prince Harry. WRONG; although she is now pregnant this appears to have happened after the wedding
- Deaths: Prince Charles, a current England cricketer, [REDACTED], [REDACTED]. WRONG on all four counts
World
- There’s an attack on Donald Trump’s life, which results in the death of several bodyguards and assailants, but only minor injuries to Trump. WRONG
- Average of one terror-related attack a month across Europe (including UK) with total fatalities in excess of 120. PARTLY CORRECT; according to Wikipedia plus some I noted there have been around 25 terrorist-related attacks in Europe this year, but they have amounted to only around 26 deaths (including the perpetrators)
- It’s unlikely North Korea will fire a nuclear weapon at the US to start WW3, but quite possible the US will fire first probably with conventional weapons. PARTLY CORRECT; North Korea didn’t attack the US and the US didn’t mount a premptive strike
- Kim Jong-un will fall from power in North Korea. WRONG
- There could be military conflict over China’s appropriation of islands in the South China Sea. WRONG
- Vladimir Putin is re-elected as Russian President; in fact there’s a good chance he will be the only candidate. CORRECT; Putin was the only serious candidate
- US lose a submarine and are unable to rescue the crew. WRONG
- Ukraine is proven to be illegally selling radioactive materials, and cannot/will not identify all the buyers. WRONG
- Saudi Arabia. Assassinations in the Saudi royal family [DETAILS REDACTED]. WRONG
- Civil war in Zimbabwe which spills over into South Africa due to uncertainties about the South African presidency. WRONG
- The Pope is embroiled in controversy possibly surrounding a significant shift in core Catholic theology. WRONG
- At least one space disaster (possibly on the ground) which kills two; and at least one major inter-planetary mission is lost in transit. PARTLY CORRECT; Soyuz launch malfunction with 2 crew doing a safe emergency descent.
- Euro – Dollar – Pound parity. WRONG
- There’ll be a major financial crash, with long-term knock-on effects, although it’s not clear if this will be in US, Europe or the Far East. WRONG
- At least two household name companies are hacked with over 100 million sets of personal information exposed. CORRECT; MyHeritage 92 million; Facebook 50 million; Dixons Carphone 5.9 million amongst the front runners
- Uber buys Lyft. WRONG
- Two of Amazon, Google and IBM merge. WRONG
- Scientists believe they have discovered extra-terrestrial life (not necessarily intelligent). WRONG
- Major eruption of Vesuvius or Mt Etna with widespread destruction and mass evacuation, but fewer than 50 fatalities. PARTLY CORRECT; eruption of Mt Etna on Christmas Eve and following days; reports of damage due to associated earthquakes; few casualties
- Magnitude 7 or above earthquake in California which, with continuing drought, all but destroys their fruit production. WRONG; although several Mag 7 or above quakes in USA/Mexico
- At least one major US city will be destroyed (and quite possibly permanently abandoned) due to a severe hurricane (possibly New Orleans, Orlando, Miami). PARTLY CORRECT; Hurricanes Florence and Michael had a pretty good shot, with Michael effectively destroying the town of Mexico Beach, FL
- Massive collapse of another Antarctic glacier or ice sheet. CORRECT
- Poland beat Russia in FIFA World Cup final, with Denmark and Brazil as losing semi-finalists. WRONG
- Other deaths: Dalai Lama. WRONG
Personal
- Anthony Powell Society. I stand down as Secretary of AP Soc, but there is no replacement identified triggering discussions about winding up the Society. PARTLY CORRECT; I did stand down but there were replacements
- Noreen has a major medical problem from which she recovers, although this forces a rebalancing of household tasks. WRONG
- Cats. We lose another cat and decide not to have more than two. WRONG
- Jacqui Piper will have her knee replacement postponed at least twice and may end up not getting it done this year. WRONG; Jacqui’s operation was postponed once but went ahead in July
- Nine deaths predicted [NAMES REDACTED]. WRONG on every single one of them
With a hit rate of only 20% that’s not a very impressive year! Definitely could do better.
I’ll be posting my predictions for 2018 in the next few days, so if you have any good predictions please do share them.