Predictions for 2018 — The Results

This time last year I made a series of predictions about what would happen during 2017. So what did I get right, and what wrong?
[Some names have been redacted to protect the sensitive and vulnerable.]


UK

  1. Brexit. It becomes clear that no Brexit deal is possible, but no-one has the courage to cancel Brexit so the UK is sleepwalking over a cliff to become a third world country (economically and socially) by 2020. CORRECT
  2. The government will ensure that, despite its expressed wish, Parliament does not have a meaningful vote on the final Brexit deal. CORRECT, so far
  3. Increasing sexual harassment claims in Parliament and involving members of the government, on top of divisions over Brexit, are likely to bring down the government. WRONG
  4. However, it’s unlikely there will be a General Election, but if there is it will be won by Labour with a tiny majority. CORRECT; no general election
  5. Michael Portillo is given a peerage and a seat in the Cabinet. WRONG
  6. Boris Johnson is replaced as Foreign Secretary by one of David Davies, Liam Fox or Michael Gove. PARTLY CORRECT; Boris did resign but was replaced by Jeremy Hunt
  7. Part of the Palace of Westminster collapses and the whole building is evacuated long-term, and may even have to be demolished. WRONG
  8. UK interest rates rise twice during the year, each time by 0.25%. WRONG; only one rise
  9. Inflation remains at 3.0-3.5%. WRONG; inflation actually declined to 2.2%
  10. Stamp Duty relief for first-time buyers pushes property prices up by 10%. WRONG; house prices rose by 2.7% in the year to October (the latest figures available)
  11. Tesco try to buy another supermarket chain but are prevented from doing so by the Monopolies Commission. WRONG; although Sainsbury and Asda were discussing a merger
  12. Waitrose close 20 stores across UK by YE and record an operating loss. WRONG; Waitrose recorded a profit although parent company John Lewis made a loss; nonetheless Waitrose announced 5 store closures
  13. Ryanair buy/merge with EasyJet. WRONG
  14. Move to regulate and meter all London taxi fares (including all private hire). WRONG
  15. Uber wins the appeal over its withdrawn operating licence in London. CORRECT; and Uber was given a 15 month licence
  16. Heavy flu season with many hospitals unable to cope with demand, contributing to 10,000 excess deaths. PARTLY CORRECT; it was a heavier than usual flu season with an estimated 6000 excess deaths
  17. At least two major disasters (industrial, train crash, plane crash etc.) with a combined total of over 200 fatalities. WRONG
  18. Driverless vehicles kill six cyclists in the UK. WRONG
  19. Red Arrows are disbanded after another fatal accident. PARTLY CORRECT; there was another Red Arrows-related fatality but the group is still operational
  20. Murders. At least 5 murders within 8km (5 miles) of my house. CORRECT; I counted 10 by mid-year and then gave up counting; one murder was just a mile away
  21. No snow in London for the whole of 2018 with temperatures 2°C above average across the year. WRONG; there was snow in January and February; temperatures look to have been about average overall across the year
  22. Prince Harry’s wedding day will be wet. WRONG; the day was dry, sunny and warm
  23. Meghan Markle gives birth less than 9 months after her wedding to Prince Harry. WRONG; although she is now pregnant this appears to have happened after the wedding
  24. Deaths: Prince Charles, a current England cricketer, [REDACTED], [REDACTED]. WRONG on all four counts

World

  1. There’s an attack on Donald Trump’s life, which results in the death of several bodyguards and assailants, but only minor injuries to Trump. WRONG
  2. Average of one terror-related attack a month across Europe (including UK) with total fatalities in excess of 120. PARTLY CORRECT; according to Wikipedia plus some I noted there have been around 25 terrorist-related attacks in Europe this year, but they have amounted to only around 26 deaths (including the perpetrators)
  3. It’s unlikely North Korea will fire a nuclear weapon at the US to start WW3, but quite possible the US will fire first probably with conventional weapons. PARTLY CORRECT; North Korea didn’t attack the US and the US didn’t mount a premptive strike
  4. Kim Jong-un will fall from power in North Korea. WRONG
  5. There could be military conflict over China’s appropriation of islands in the South China Sea. WRONG
  6. Vladimir Putin is re-elected as Russian President; in fact there’s a good chance he will be the only candidate. CORRECT; Putin was the only serious candidate
  7. US lose a submarine and are unable to rescue the crew. WRONG
  8. Ukraine is proven to be illegally selling radioactive materials, and cannot/will not identify all the buyers. WRONG
  9. Saudi Arabia. Assassinations in the Saudi royal family [DETAILS REDACTED]. WRONG
  10. Civil war in Zimbabwe which spills over into South Africa due to uncertainties about the South African presidency. WRONG
  11. The Pope is embroiled in controversy possibly surrounding a significant shift in core Catholic theology. WRONG
  12. At least one space disaster (possibly on the ground) which kills two; and at least one major inter-planetary mission is lost in transit. PARTLY CORRECT; Soyuz launch malfunction with 2 crew doing a safe emergency descent.
  13. Euro – Dollar – Pound parity. WRONG
  14. There’ll be a major financial crash, with long-term knock-on effects, although it’s not clear if this will be in US, Europe or the Far East. WRONG
  15. At least two household name companies are hacked with over 100 million sets of personal information exposed. CORRECT; MyHeritage 92 million; Facebook 50 million; Dixons Carphone 5.9 million amongst the front runners
  16. Uber buys Lyft. WRONG
  17. Two of Amazon, Google and IBM merge. WRONG
  18. Scientists believe they have discovered extra-terrestrial life (not necessarily intelligent). WRONG
  19. Major eruption of Vesuvius or Mt Etna with widespread destruction and mass evacuation, but fewer than 50 fatalities. PARTLY CORRECT; eruption of Mt Etna on Christmas Eve and following days; reports of damage due to associated earthquakes; few casualties
  20. Magnitude 7 or above earthquake in California which, with continuing drought, all but destroys their fruit production. WRONG; although several Mag 7 or above quakes in USA/Mexico
  21. At least one major US city will be destroyed (and quite possibly permanently abandoned) due to a severe hurricane (possibly New Orleans, Orlando, Miami). PARTLY CORRECT; Hurricanes Florence and Michael had a pretty good shot, with Michael effectively destroying the town of Mexico Beach, FL
  22. Massive collapse of another Antarctic glacier or ice sheet. CORRECT
  23. Poland beat Russia in FIFA World Cup final, with Denmark and Brazil as losing semi-finalists. WRONG
  24. Other deaths: Dalai Lama. WRONG

Personal

  1. Anthony Powell Society. I stand down as Secretary of AP Soc, but there is no replacement identified triggering discussions about winding up the Society. PARTLY CORRECT; I did stand down but there were replacements
  2. Noreen has a major medical problem from which she recovers, although this forces a rebalancing of household tasks. WRONG
  3. Cats. We lose another cat and decide not to have more than two. WRONG
  4. Jacqui Piper will have her knee replacement postponed at least twice and may end up not getting it done this year. WRONG; Jacqui’s operation was postponed once but went ahead in July
  5. Nine deaths predicted [NAMES REDACTED]. WRONG on every single one of them

With a hit rate of only 20% that’s not a very impressive year! Definitely could do better.

I’ll be posting my predictions for 2018 in the next few days, so if you have any good predictions please do share them.