personal, ramblings

Predictions for 2017 — How Did I Do?

This time last year I made a series of predictions about what would happen during 2017. So what did I get right, and what wrong?

UK

  1. Brexit. The Supreme Court overturns the High Court judgement that Royal Prerogative cannot be used to trigger Article 50. WRONG; the decision was upheld by a majority verdict.
  2. Brexit. Article 50 will be triggered in the last week of March by government without the agreement of parliament. WRONG in that Parliament agreed by passing legislation authorising the PM to trigger Article 50, although without any explicit agreement to leave the EU. CORRECT in that Article 50 was triggered in the last week of March.
  3. Brexit. It becomes apparent that no deal is possible with the EU and that the notification under Article 50 cannot be withdrawn. WRONG as this is not yet apparent to the government.
  4. As a consequence, Theresa May resigns and asks Parliament to grant a General Election. WRONG in that Theresa May didn’t resign. CORRECT that there would be a General Election.
  5. Boris Johnson is sacked as Foreign Secretary and relegated to the back benches. WRONG
  6. The new Foreign Secretary is one of David Davies, Liam Fox, Michael Gove. WRONG as it didn’t arise
  7. Inflation will hit 2.5% by year-end. CORRECT: in March inflation was 2.3%; by November it was 3.1%.
  8. The Bank of England Base Rate will be reduced to 0%. WRONG; BoE base rate was raised to 0.5%.
  9. The Pound falls by 20% (cf. 1 January) against the US Dollar and the Euro. WRONG; pound was down 4% against the Euro and up 9.5% against the US dollar.
  10. FT100 falls by at least 10% compared with the start of the year. WRONG FT100 was up 7.6% on the year.
  11. Unemployment rises by 10% compared with December 2016. WRONG unemployment was down from 4.8% to 4.3%.
  12. GDP falls by at least 2% year-on-year; the UK is in recession by the end of the year. WRONG; GDP was up 1.7% as measured 3Q2016 to 3Q2017 (latest data available).
  13. The Government will introduce legislation to implement Nordic model of prostitution. WRONG
  14. The Government also implements alcohol minimum pricing. WRONG; although CORRECT in Scotland.
  15. There is at least one major incident (plane crash, train crash, terrorist attack, industrial accident etc.) with over 50 fatalities. CORRECT; the Grenfell Tower fire claimed 71 lives. Add to that two terror attacks in London and one in Manchester with a total of 35 deaths.
  16. At least one high street name goes out of business with over 500 job losses. CORRECT. Monarch airline collapsed with 1858 jobs lost. Also Jaeger collapsed with 700 jobs threatened as did Multiyork with 550 jobs threatened.
  17. At least 2 major hospitals are forced to close due to finance problems, with loss of jobs and healthcare; there is no allowance for anyone to pick up the slack. WRONG
  18. Two horses die in the Grand National, which is then permanently scrapped. WRONG; all the horses survived the race.
  19. There’s significant flooding somewhere in the UK in March, May and October. WRONG about March and May; CORRECT as there was major flooding in Cumbria in October.
  20. A meteor strike destroys two houses, but there are no fatalities. WRONG
  21. There is finally proof that there are non-native big cats living wild in the UK; there are enough to maintain a small breeding population. WRONG
  22. The Queen dies unexpectedly followed within 3 months by Prince Philip. WRONG
  23. Prince Charles ducks becoming King thus allowing William to take to the throne. WRONG because it didn’t arise.
  24. Other Deaths: Paul McCartney, Bruce Forsythe, Bob Geldof, Michael Parkinson. CORRECT about Bruce Forsyth. WRONG about the others.

World

  1. Donald Trump is inaugurated as US President amid strident protests, possible rioting and several fatalities. CORRECT, although I don’t recall any fatalities.
  2. During the year there are moves to impeach Trump which may succeed. CORRECT although they have come to nothing.
  3. Obama care is scrapped. CORRECT
  4. NASA’s budget is halved. WRONG
  5. An accident (maybe a debris strike?) destroys the ISS with loss of the crew. WRONG
  6. Consequent on the above NASA abandons manned space flight for the foreseeable future. WRONG as it didn’t arise.
  7. Trump visits Russia; Putin visits the US. WRONG, surprisingly.
  8. US imposes severe restrictions on immigration. CORRECT although the courts seem to be unsure about whether the bans are legal or not.
  9. Against all the odds the USA abolishes the death penalty. WRONG
  10. Major banking collapse somewhere in the developed world, possibly Italy, USA or UK. CORRECT; the Italian government had to bail out two banks to the tune of €17bn.
  11. Major cyber attack brings down power/utility infrastructure affecting hundreds of thousands, probably in USA but maybe Western Europe. CORRECT; the WannaCry attack in May affected over 200k systems worldwide including a significant chunk of the UK NHS.
  12. Marine Le Pen is elected French President precipitating an existential crisis in the EU. WRONG; Le Pen lost the run-off to Emmanuel Macron.
  13. Turmoil in South Africa after the arrest of a top politician. WRONG; not noticeably although it seems to have been a close run thing with President Zuma.
  14. President Mugabe of Zimbabwe dies. WRONG; although he was forced from office in November only to be replaced by one of his acolytes.
  15. Consequently the regime in Zimbabwe becomes even more repressive, in an attempt to prevent a civil war; this triggers a mass exodus of blacks to neighbouring countries. WRONG as it didn’t arise.
  16. At least one major earthquake (magnitude 7.5+) with over 200 fatalities in Asia and another in South America. MAYBE: two quakes in Mexico (magnitude 8.1 and 7.1) with 360+ deaths; a 7.9 quake in Papua New Guinea with few deaths; a 7.3 quake in Iran/Iraq with over 400 deaths.
  17. Scientists in Tasmania discover a small breeding population of Thylacine. WRONG; although there were reports of possible sightings in Queensland.
  18. At least two major civilian plane crashes each with over 100 fatalities. WRONG
  19. There is a significant downturn in air travel which causes at least one major carrier to fail. CORRECT; the economic/trading environment was a major contributor to the failure of Monarch Airlines.
  20. At least one conspiracy theory of 2012-16 turns out to be true. WRONG, as far as I am aware.
  21. There’s a major epidemic of a new infectious disease across a whole continent (or more). WRONG, again as far as I am aware.
  22. IBM is bought by/merged with another large US corporation (possible contenders: Microsoft, Apple, Google). WRONG
  23. Other deaths: Rupert Murdoch, the Dalai Lama, Jimmy Carter, George HW Bush. WRONG on all those.

Personal
These predictions were previously redacted.

  1. Knee Surgery 1. Operation on right knee successful although recovery takes >3 months. CORRECT; surgery was very successful although recovery was nothing over 3 months.
  2. Knee Surgery 2. Left knee replacement not before November and probably in 2018. WRONG; operation was done in September and again successful and good recovery.
  3. Pension. IBM reduces all pensions by 10%. WRONG
  4. Deaths amongst Family & Friends. Joan Wayman (before end-January); Cyril; Jessie; Stan Owen. CORRECT about Stan who died in April. CORRECT that Joan died, although on Boxing Day and not in January. WRONG about Cyril and Jessie.
  5. Anthony Powell Society. I am replaced as Secretary as the Society Trustees decide on a new direction/strategy. MAYBE: I wasn’t directly replaced but announced (voluntarily) that I am standing-down at the 2018 AGM so as not to impede the refocussing of the Society.

Well that’s not a very impressive year! Definintely could do better.
I’ll be posting my predictions for 2018 in the next few days, so if you have any good predictions please do share them.