Yes, I’m afraid the fallout from the Brexit vote continues.
Last evening I picked up an interesting item on the BBC News feed in which the EU Trade Commissioner, Cecilia Malmstrom, points out the realities of the UK’s exit negotiations. (The article is short, very clear and worth a 5 minute read.)
The Commissioner is quoted as saying “There are actually two negotiations. First you exit, and then you negotiate the new relationship, whatever that is”. This is because:
- Under EU law, the bloc cannot negotiate a separate trade deal with one of its own members, hence the commissioner’s insistence that the UK must first leave.
- It is also against EU law for a member to negotiate its own trade deals with outsiders, which means the UK cannot start doing this until after it has left the EU.
So basically we have to negotiate just the exit deal (ie. the transitional arrangements). Then, and only then, can we start negotiations to join the EEA and/or arrange bilateral trade deals with other countries. And I have seen it suggested that negotiation to join the EEA normally takes 5-7 years, and bilateral trade deals aren’t usually a lot quicker.
Meanwhile the UK has to trade (with everyone!) under the WTO rules, which may not be to everyone’s liking or advantage — WTO rules restrict the circumstances in which countries discriminate in favour of each other in trade; they must apply to each other the tariffs they apply against the rest of the world.
Unfortunately many people, including some MPs like Geraint Davies writing in yesterday’s Guardian, clearly have no understanding of this. The two year clock started by invoking TEU Article 50 covers only the exit negotiations, and until that clock expires no other negotiations may legally take place.
So basically, if we trigger Article 50, we’re stuffed for years before we can even start to see a route out of the caldera.