Another article I picked up yesterday was UK and the EU (10) — What if it is Brexit? on the Law and Lawyers blog. As you might divine it is number 10 in a series which tries to shine some interesting lights on the legal ramifications of the upcoming referendum.
Yesterday’s article points out (without saying it in as many words) that a LEAVE vote on 23 June would present an interesting constitutional crisis. In summary:
- The present House of Commons has more MPs in favour of remaining in the EU than leaving it.
- Constitutionally sovereignty rests with Parliament so the referendum result cannot be legally binding on Parliament.
- But politically it would be very difficult for the government to ignore the referendum result.
- What the referendum does not address is what would be the UK’s relationship with the EU when the UK leaves at the end of the (presumably 2 year) exit negotiations.
- Ultimately, Parliament will have to legislate for whatever arrangement is negotiated. That legislative process is likely to be very complex and lengthy with the final legislation depending on the negotiated exit deal. And of course parliament may decline to pass the required legislation.
- This could be even messier if there is a REMAIN majority in Scotland but not in England. That could re-fuel demands for Scotland independence.
- The Prime Minister and most ministers have campaigned for REMAIN so how would they stand if the vote is for Brexit? Since the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 it is not possible for the Prime Minister to simply ask the Queen to dissolve Parliament. The next election will be in May 2020 unless a general election is called through one of the two procedures set out in the 2011 Act. There is no other mechanism unless parliament itself repeals (or amends) the 2011 Act.
Interesting times we live in!