I didn’t blog this yesterday as I wanted to catch up on all the news reports …
Pfizer/BioNTech have announced that their vaccine against Covid-19 is 90% effective. So of course everyone is jumping about in delight and expecting that everything is going to be fixed by next week (slight, but only slight, exaggeration).
[T]he results are preliminary, have been shared only by press release, and the trials are not yet complete.
Frankly I consider this scientifically and medically irresponsible as it will get many people demanding the vaccine now, create disenchantment when they can’t, and undermine the current lockdown. The trials are continuing, the final data has not been analysed, nor peer-reviewed, nor published, nor submitted to the regulators. Press release is not the way to publish scientific research; it is purely a mechanism for bumping up a company’s share price.
So for once I was pleased to see Boris Johnson adding a touch of realism to the proceedings. Here are some more of the key snippets from the news items which show why this is not a magic bullet (references at the bottom).
[T]the announcement is just the first hurdle of many … regulatory hurdles will have to be overcome – and that is before we even think about manufacture and distribution.
Nothing in medicine is 100% safe – even something we take without thinking, like paracetamol, poses risks.
We also don’t [yet!] know how protective the vaccine is in different age groups.
[I]t must be approved by licensing authorities.
The prime minister said “if and when” the vaccine was approved for use, the UK “will be ready to use it”.
[W]hen scientists succeed in making a coronavirus vaccine, there won’t be enough to go around.
[A] huge level of production will be required, and then there is the matter of who gets the vaccine first and how mass vaccination would be rolled out.
Each … country will have to determine who it immunises first and how it does that.
[S]hould the Pfizer vaccine pass all the vigorous safety checks … older people would be first in line for the vaccination.
As the initial supply will be limited, reducing deaths and protecting health care systems are likely to be prioritised.
In the UK, older care home residents and care home staff are top of the preliminary priority list. They are followed by health workers such as hospital staff and the over 80s.
There are also logistical challenges, not least as the vaccine needs to be stored at -80°C, meaning that even in developed countries there could be difficulties in distributing the jab.
The Pfizer/BioNTech candidate … needs -80°C storage, and that is not available down at your local pharmacy [or GP]. Pfizer has been rounding up as many ultracold freezers (and as much dry ice production) as they can, but … this is going to be a tough one … the press release talks about getting 1.3 billion doses of this vaccine during 2021, but actually getting 1.3 billion doses out there is going to take an extraordinary effort, because you’re getting into some regions where such relatively high-tech storage and handling becomes far more difficult … With demanding storage requirements, the more people that are within a short distance of a Big Really Cold Freezer, the better. And the more trucks (etc.) that you have to send down isolated roads to find the spread-out patients, the worse.
Given that this vaccine needs two shots to be effective 1.3 billion doses is a nowhere near what is needed; it would provide enough to fully vaccinate only about half of India and nowhere else!
Maintaining vaccines under cold chain is already one of the biggest challenges countries face and this will be exacerbated with the introduction of a new vaccine … You will need to add more cold chain equipment, make sure you always have fuel (to run freezer and refrigerators in absence of electricity) and repair/replace them when they break and transport them wherever you need them.
Frankly, we’re in the middle of the second wave, and I [Prof Jonathan Van-Tam, England’s Deputy Chief Medical Officer] don’t see the vaccine making any difference for the wave we are now in. I’m hopeful that it may prevent future waves, but this one we have to battle through to the end without vaccine.
WHO has said it does not expect to see widespread vaccinations against Covid-19 until the middle of 2021.
[Boris Johnson] added it was “very, very early days”. He warned people not to “rely on this news as a solution” to the pandemic. “The biggest mistake we could make now would be to slacken our resolve at a critical moment,” he said.
So yes, this is good news and there is light at the end of the tunnel, but it is a very long tunnel! We will get out of the tunnel, but meanwhile stay safe!
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/11/09/vaccine-efficacy-data
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/09/uk-rollout-of-covid-vaccine-could-start-before-christmas
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/09/what-has-pfizers-covid-vaccine-trial-found-and-is-this-a-breakthrough
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54879676
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-54880084
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54027269