2016 Predictions, the Results

A year ago I dusted off my crystal ball and made a few predictions about what would happen in 2016. Now the results are in. So how did I do?


UK

  1. David Cameron will not succeed in negotiating any meaningful changes to UK’s membership of the EU. MAYBE; it all depends on your interpretation of “meaningful changes” but I suggest what was agreed amounted to little more than a few ribbons and bows
  2. Nevertheless Cameron declares a triumph & campaigns for the UK to stay in the EU. CORRECT
  3. However the UK electorate will vote narrowly to leave the EU. CORRECT; although a slightly larger margin than I expected
  4. This could lead to the downfall of the current government and a General Election. CORRECT in that the government changed; WRONG in that there was no General Election
  5. Labour’s Sadiq Khan wins the London mayoral election. CORRECT
  6. Boris Johnson is appointed to the cabinet in a summer reshuffle. CORRECT
  7. At least one very well-known UK company (or charity) goes into liquidation unexpectedly with 500+ job losses. CORRECT; BHS (11,000 job losses), Austin Reed (1000 jobs) just for starters
  8. The government will go ahead with a third runway at Heathrow despite adverse environmental evaluations. CORRECT; runway approved by the government although some form of consultation is suggested
  9. Consequently the value of property within 10 miles of the Heathrow flightpath falls by 20%. NOT PROVEN, too early to say
  10. Work starts on HS2 and Crossrail 2 despite the lack of available funding. CORRECT in that some enabling work has started for HS2; WRONG for Crossrail 2 as far as I’m aware
  11. Construction work starts on London’s “garden bridge”, also despite a funding shortfall; the project will never be completed. WRONG, as far as I know there has so far been no construction work although it was planned
  12. Inflation remains at about 1%. CORRECT
  13. Interest rates rise to 1% by YE. WRONG, they fell to 0.25%
  14. The FTSE 100 closes 2016 down 10% on the 2015 close. WRONG, FT100 closed up 900 (over 14%)
  15. At least one major “accident” (transport? industrial? terrorist?) with 50+ fatalities — and there’s a good chance it will be in London. WRONG
  16. Death of a senior member of the royal family. WRONG
  17. Prince Harry comes out as gay (or at least bi). WRONG
  18. Artist Banksy is finally unmasked; he turns out to be someone already well known. MAYBE; back in March the most likely candidate was identified by “geographic profiling” but not confirmed
  19. Bruce Forsythe and David Attenborough die. WRONG
  20. Arsenal win Premier League. WRONG, they came second to Leicester City
  21. Another warm, wet winter followed by a cold wet summer. CORRECT for the Winter; WRONG for Summer which was wetter than average for most of the UK but also marginally warmer

World

  1. Donald Trump will not win the Republican nomination in the US Presidential election. WRONG
  2. Hilary Clinton wins the US Presidential election by the tiniest of majorities. WRONG
  3. Relations between Turkey and Russia deteriorate further. MAYBE; this appears to have been true early in the year although they do seem to have improved latterly
  4. Fighting in Ukraine flares up again. WRONG, it doesn’t seem to have done — or has it just dropped off the news?
  5. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un dies unexpectedly, plunging the country into chaos and resulting in annexation by China. WRONG
  6. Dalai Lama dies, precipitating a diplomatic crisis with China. WRONG
  7. Major violence erupts in Egypt further damaging their tourist industry especially in the Nile Valley. WRONG, despite terrorist attacks on Egyptian airline flights
  8. Assad remains in power in Syria, possibly in a strengthened position as the West comes to see him as the least worst option. CORRECT
  9. Greece will have further financial troubles and will again come close to leaving the EU — and they may even be forced to leave. CORRECT that Greece is still in financial trouble and has had bailout loans delayed; WRONG that they’ve not been forced out of the EU
  10. Cyprus reaches some form of vague reunification agreement. WRONG, certainly I’ve not seen this announced anywhere
  11. The EU has to formally suspend Schengen Agreement. WRONG
  12. A further downturn in Chinese economy causes worldwide downturn. WRONG
  13. Oil prices remain low but fuel and domestic energy prices rise compared with the start of the year. MAYBE; Snapshot data: Brent Crude up from $35.75 to $57.19/barrel; Unleaded (UK avg) up from 103.1 to 116.87; Diesel (UK avg) up from 106.38 to 119.08
  14. At least two major airline, train, cruise liner or ferry accidents with 200+ fatalities (in total). CORRECT; major civilian plane crashes at Rostov-on-Don (Russia, 62 lost), EgyptAir (downed over Mediterranean, 66 lost), Chapecoense football team (in Columbia, 75 lost), PIA flight lost near Islamabad (48 lost) at the top four
  15. A naval vessel (Australian? Russian?) finds the wreckage of MH370, by luck as it is outside the search zone; it is too deep to be safely recovered. WRONG

Personal
Six personal predictions were documented and can now be revealed:

  1. I will finally be put on insulin, or an insulin mimetic. CORRECT
  2. All clear from AAA screening. CORRECT
  3. Colonoscopy finds more polyps, but they’re benign. WRONG, got an all clear
  4. Aunt Jessie, Uncle Cyril, cousin Anne and Auntie Olive all die. WRONG, all family members still present and correct as far as I know
  5. We will finally lose Harry the Cat, probably in February. CORRECT although it happened in January
  6. AP Conference will make a loss of around £2K (after subsidies) due to unforeseen costs and/or low take up – possibly the Americans don’t come because of a perceived terror threat. MAYBE; the Americans didn’t come and take-up was below plan, but the unplanned losses were only about £900

At first sight it looks as if I did a little better than for 2015; 30% hit rate this year compared with just 25% last year. But then as last year sometimes being wrong is actually good.
I’ll bring you my predictions for 2017 in a few days time.