A year ago I dusted off my crystal ball and made a few predictions about what would happen in 2016. Now the results are in. So how did I do?
UK
- David Cameron will not succeed in negotiating any meaningful changes to UK’s membership of the EU. MAYBE; it all depends on your interpretation of “meaningful changes” but I suggest what was agreed amounted to little more than a few ribbons and bows
- Nevertheless Cameron declares a triumph & campaigns for the UK to stay in the EU. CORRECT
- However the UK electorate will vote narrowly to leave the EU. CORRECT; although a slightly larger margin than I expected
- This could lead to the downfall of the current government and a General Election. CORRECT in that the government changed; WRONG in that there was no General Election
- Labour’s Sadiq Khan wins the London mayoral election. CORRECT
- Boris Johnson is appointed to the cabinet in a summer reshuffle. CORRECT
- At least one very well-known UK company (or charity) goes into liquidation unexpectedly with 500+ job losses. CORRECT; BHS (11,000 job losses), Austin Reed (1000 jobs) just for starters
- The government will go ahead with a third runway at Heathrow despite adverse environmental evaluations. CORRECT; runway approved by the government although some form of consultation is suggested
- Consequently the value of property within 10 miles of the Heathrow flightpath falls by 20%. NOT PROVEN, too early to say
- Work starts on HS2 and Crossrail 2 despite the lack of available funding. CORRECT in that some enabling work has started for HS2; WRONG for Crossrail 2 as far as I’m aware
- Construction work starts on London’s “garden bridge”, also despite a funding shortfall; the project will never be completed. WRONG, as far as I know there has so far been no construction work although it was planned
- Inflation remains at about 1%. CORRECT
- Interest rates rise to 1% by YE. WRONG, they fell to 0.25%
- The FTSE 100 closes 2016 down 10% on the 2015 close. WRONG, FT100 closed up 900 (over 14%)
- At least one major “accident” (transport? industrial? terrorist?) with 50+ fatalities — and there’s a good chance it will be in London. WRONG
- Death of a senior member of the royal family. WRONG
- Prince Harry comes out as gay (or at least bi). WRONG
- Artist Banksy is finally unmasked; he turns out to be someone already well known. MAYBE; back in March the most likely candidate was identified by “geographic profiling” but not confirmed
- Bruce Forsythe and David Attenborough die. WRONG
- Arsenal win Premier League. WRONG, they came second to Leicester City
- Another warm, wet winter followed by a cold wet summer. CORRECT for the Winter; WRONG for Summer which was wetter than average for most of the UK but also marginally warmer
World
- Donald Trump will not win the Republican nomination in the US Presidential election. WRONG
- Hilary Clinton wins the US Presidential election by the tiniest of majorities. WRONG
- Relations between Turkey and Russia deteriorate further. MAYBE; this appears to have been true early in the year although they do seem to have improved latterly
- Fighting in Ukraine flares up again. WRONG, it doesn’t seem to have done — or has it just dropped off the news?
- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un dies unexpectedly, plunging the country into chaos and resulting in annexation by China. WRONG
- Dalai Lama dies, precipitating a diplomatic crisis with China. WRONG
- Major violence erupts in Egypt further damaging their tourist industry especially in the Nile Valley. WRONG, despite terrorist attacks on Egyptian airline flights
- Assad remains in power in Syria, possibly in a strengthened position as the West comes to see him as the least worst option. CORRECT
- Greece will have further financial troubles and will again come close to leaving the EU — and they may even be forced to leave. CORRECT that Greece is still in financial trouble and has had bailout loans delayed; WRONG that they’ve not been forced out of the EU
- Cyprus reaches some form of vague reunification agreement. WRONG, certainly I’ve not seen this announced anywhere
- The EU has to formally suspend Schengen Agreement. WRONG
- A further downturn in Chinese economy causes worldwide downturn. WRONG
- Oil prices remain low but fuel and domestic energy prices rise compared with the start of the year. MAYBE; Snapshot data: Brent Crude up from $35.75 to $57.19/barrel; Unleaded (UK avg) up from 103.1 to 116.87; Diesel (UK avg) up from 106.38 to 119.08
- At least two major airline, train, cruise liner or ferry accidents with 200+ fatalities (in total). CORRECT; major civilian plane crashes at Rostov-on-Don (Russia, 62 lost), EgyptAir (downed over Mediterranean, 66 lost), Chapecoense football team (in Columbia, 75 lost), PIA flight lost near Islamabad (48 lost) at the top four
- A naval vessel (Australian? Russian?) finds the wreckage of MH370, by luck as it is outside the search zone; it is too deep to be safely recovered. WRONG
Personal
Six personal predictions were documented and can now be revealed:
- I will finally be put on insulin, or an insulin mimetic. CORRECT
- All clear from AAA screening. CORRECT
- Colonoscopy finds more polyps, but they’re benign. WRONG, got an all clear
- Aunt Jessie, Uncle Cyril, cousin Anne and Auntie Olive all die. WRONG, all family members still present and correct as far as I know
- We will finally lose Harry the Cat, probably in February. CORRECT although it happened in January
- AP Conference will make a loss of around £2K (after subsidies) due to unforeseen costs and/or low take up – possibly the Americans don’t come because of a perceived terror threat. MAYBE; the Americans didn’t come and take-up was below plan, but the unplanned losses were only about £900
At first sight it looks as if I did a little better than for 2015; 30% hit rate this year compared with just 25% last year. But then as last year sometimes being wrong is actually good.
I’ll bring you my predictions for 2017 in a few days time.