current affairs, ramblings

To Brexit or Not to Brexit?

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So should the UK stay in the EU or leave? This is the question we are being asked to decide at the referendum on 23 June.
Importantly there is the question of whether anyone can make anything other than an emotional decision. And I suspect the vast majority of the great British public — or at least those who bother to vote — will do just that: make an emotional decision.
How can they do otherwise? Because no-one actually knows the consequences of either staying or leaving, and all we’re hearing is speculation, guesswork and wishful thinking. I have yet to find anyone with a reliable crystal ball.
As I have an almost total mistrust of everything which comes from the mouths of politicians, I’ve been almost completely ignoring the hot air, waffle and rhubarb which is permeating our airwaves.
Nonetheless we do need to try to come to some sort of rational decision, so in the following table I’ve attempted to pull together what little we do know of the facts, for and against, staying and leaving the EU. It isn’t easy, and some of this is still undoubtedly emotionally biassed, although I’ve tried to avoid this.
So this is the state of play as I see it.**

  For Against
Stay in the EU

  1. Human Rights protection (although much of that is down to the ECHR, not part of the EU, so a separate issue)
  2. Workers’ rights protection (holiday, equal pay, maternity leave, working hours)
  3. Some protection from the worst ravages of UK government
  4. European Arrest Warrant
  5. Open international trade
  6. Inward funding for universities
  7. Large farm subsidies
  8. Free movement (in and out of UK) — yes that means easy visa-free travel to Spain, Cyprus, Greece etc. on holiday as well as for Europeans coming here
  9. Ability to buy (cheaply) and import alcohol and tobacco for personal use …
  10. … which (probably) keeps UK duty down
  11. Flights and mobile phone charges are among the goods and services that are cheaper, because of EU regulation
  12. Curtailing of market abuse by corporations like Microsoft
  13. British tourists enjoy free or cheaper healthcare in other EU countries

  1. Fewer border controls
  2. TTIP
  3. Cost of membership
  4. Huge, expensive and unchecked bureaucracy
Leave the EU

  1. More border controls
  2. More control of tax (eg. VAT)
  3. Fewer food etc. regulations
  4. Decreased Nanny State micromanagement. Well maybe?
  5. No TTIP? Well maybe?
  6. No Common Agricultural Policy

  1. Opens up unhindered privatisation of NHS by government with no checks and balances — although to be fair TTIP may do that too
  2. Are trade deals (not just with Europe) negotiable? And even if they are how long will it take? See for instance Canada.
  3. Possible loss of rights for ex-pat Brits living in Europe
  4. Possible dismantling of workers’ protection
  5. Probable dismantling of human rights (although much of this is not directly EU controlled)
  6. Households allegedly ~£4300 a year worse off by 2030. Ummm, maybe.
  7. Possible barriers to travel to Europe (eg. visas)
  8. UK would still have to contribute to the EU budget to retain access to the single market. See Norway and Switzerland.
  9. It’s a complete leap in the dark; no-one has a clue what will happen because no-one has been here before

That looks to me like a good case for staying in the EU. But of course, you should all do your own research, decide how important you feel each of the factors to be and make up your own minds. All I ask is that you make a properly informed decision — the best decision you can, at the time, with the information you have (and that information includes the proclivities of your brain).
Sadly, though, I suspect the British public will be beguiled by the speculative arguments and sound bites of those campaigning to leave. If they are, it really will be a leap in the dark, because no-one knows what will happen. So gawdelpus!

20/05/2016 Update
I promised updates, so here is the first. In the last few days I’ve come across this graphic from Richard Murphy of Tax Research LLP.


Click the image for a larger view

It appears to refer to the way in which the 2014 “tax take” was used by the government. If we assume the data is correct, then we pay just 0.37% of our taxes to the EU (yes, it’s that tiny figure at 12 o’clock on the pie chart). Now that strikes me as being eminently reasonable.
In fact extrapolating the figures from this recent Daily Telegraph article suggests that the net cost of the EU is in the region of £100 a year per person in the UK. Which again seems to me to be eminently reasonable.

** I will try to update this as we go along if any new evidence (as opposed to spin, myth and guesswork) appears.

2 thoughts on “To Brexit or Not to Brexit?”

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