Jilly over at jillysheep isn’t panicking about the current H1N1 ‘flu scare. She asks “Is this really a pandemic?” Quite rightly she concludes it isn’t a pandemic. I’m interested in (and follow) emerging diseases and their epidemiology (in an amateur way) and I agree with Jilly; here is my (slightly edited) succinct comment to her posting:

No this isn’t a pandemic. In my view (and I hope I’m right) it isn’t even dangerous. As usual it is being hyped up by the media and the politicians are playing to the gallery. Look guys, it’s ‘flu! It doesn’t even appear to be an especially dangerous ‘flu. Sure ‘flu can be nasty and it does kill a few people; it always did; it always will. Yes this will spread. Yes, technically, it may become a pandemic, but IMO not one to worry about. H5N1 Avian ‘flu is potentially more worrysome as it appears to have a higher CFR (fatality rate); SARS similarly. And as for the idea that this ‘flu could be contained in Mexico, well forget it; it never could (just as Avian ‘flu and SARS could never be contained). By the time anyone realised it was around the genie was out of the lamp, however quick they had been, given modern mobility and air travel. This has been around in Mexico since, it seems, mid-March, so the genie was out of the bottle a month before anyone knew (or at least admitted). Look at that month and then ask how dangerous this is. I rest my case!

I don’t relish the thought of having ‘flu, especially as I’m one of those supposed to be at most risk (I’m diabetic) and so get a ‘flu jab every year. And the ‘flu jab to date probably offers me no protection against this Influenza A/H1N1 strain. Next year’s vaccine could include protection against this strain, but only if the scientists get a move on as production of next winter’s vaccine will already have started. Even in spite of this I’m not panicking.

Come on guys, get a life! Is this really all we have to worry about?